KARACHI: Two years after a mass uprising led to the downfall of Sheikh Hasina’s authoritarian regime, Bangladesh has signaled a latest chapter in its political landscape. The recent elections culminated in a decisive victory for Tarique Rahman and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), marking a profound shift in governance and an opportunity for a much-needed political reset.
Rahman’s ascension comes after a turbulent period in Bangladesh’s history, characterized by widespread protests and a violent crackdown that resulted in approximately 1,400 deaths. This unrest culminated in Hasina’s ouster in 2024, a moment that galvanized public sentiment and mobilized a powerful opposition movement.
Currently in exile in Delhi, Hasina has faced significant legal consequences for her actions during the protests, including a death sentence handed down in absentia by the International Crimes Tribunal. The Modi government, perceived as her primary ally, has refused to extradite her, further complicating diplomatic relations between India and Bangladesh.
A Turning Point for Bangladesh
The electoral outcome is viewed as a validation of the protests against Hasina’s repressive regime and a stark rebuke of New Delhi’s longstanding support for her administration. Throughout her tenure, Hasina maintained a strong economic trajectory but did so alongside an expanding framework of political repression marked by the arrest of opponents and enforced disappearances.
Her government’s foreign policy heavily favored India, illustrated by seven high-level visits to New Delhi during her 15 years in power. Critics argue that this approach often prioritized Indian interests over Bangladesh’s own, leaving unresolved critical disputes and fostering a perception of dependency.
Recalibrating Foreign Relations
With the BNP now in power, Rahman faces the formidable task of redefining Bangladesh’s relationships with both India and Pakistan. During a recent rally, he emphasized a shift in priorities, stating, “Not Dilli, not Pindi — Bangladesh before everything.” This statement reflects a potential pivot away from the heavy reliance on India that characterized Hasina’s era.
Following Hasina’s departure, the interim government quickly moved to improve ties with Islamabad, with direct flights to Karachi resuming after 14 years and significant increases in trade. This renewed engagement with Pakistan has sparked discussions about the balance of relations in the region, previously skewed heavily towards India.
Despite the positive developments with Pakistan, Rahman must navigate the complexities of public sentiment, which remains sensitive due to the violence of the past. Anti-India sentiment is palpable among many Bangladeshis, stemming from years of perceived interference and reliance on India for support.
Challenges Ahead for the New Government
As Rahman begins his tenure, he will need to strike a careful balance in his foreign policy. Moving too close to India may provoke accusations of surrendering national interests, while distancing from New Delhi could jeopardize vital economic and security ties. Observers note that every diplomatic gesture will be scrutinized, and missteps could have significant domestic repercussions.
Rahman’s leadership will also be tested by the need to address the lingering effects of Hasina’s governance, including the unresolved issues surrounding human rights abuses and the need for genuine democratic reforms. His administration will need to reassure the public that their grievances are being addressed and that the government is committed to accountability.
Looking Forward
The recent electoral verdict has opened the door for a rethinking of regional dynamics, suggesting that South Asia may no longer function as the exclusive domain of a single power. Bangladesh’s foreign policy under Rahman is expected to evolve, potentially creating a more balanced approach towards major powers like China and the United States, while normalizing relations with Pakistan.
This shift signals that Bangladesh is ready to assert its independence in international affairs, moving beyond previous alignments that may have compromised its sovereignty. Under Rahman’s leadership, Bangladesh could emerge as a more assertive player in South Asia, redefining its role and relationships in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.
As the country embarks on this new journey, the international community will be watching closely to witness how the BNP navigates its complex relationships and addresses the myriad challenges that lie ahead. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether Bangladesh can truly reset its political landscape and emerge as a beacon of democratic governance in the region.
We encourage readers to share their thoughts on Bangladesh’s new direction and what the future holds for this pivotal South Asian nation.
