President Donald Trump has publicly stated his upcoming State of the Union address on Tuesday night will be “a long speech, because we have so much to talk about.” Scheduled to begin at 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT, the length of the address has become a subject of speculation – and even betting – with prediction markets attempting to forecast how long Trump will speak. This has raised questions about whether the emphasis on a lengthy speech is genuine, or a calculated move potentially benefiting those with insight into the president’s plans.
The anticipation surrounding the speech’s duration has fueled activity on political prediction markets. Concerns about potential manipulation are also surfacing, given past scrutiny of financial dealings involving individuals close to the president. The situation highlights the increasing intersection of politics, finance, and information – and the challenges of discerning genuine intent from strategic maneuvering.
Betting on the Duration: What the Markets Say
As of Tuesday, traders on the predictions market Kalshi are betting heavily on a lengthy address. Options ranged from “60 min and above,” currently holding a 99% probability, to “100 min or above,” at 68%, according to the Associated Press. Kalshi itself tweeted that traders forecast Trump to speak for 99 minutes tonight. Meanwhile, on Polymarket – a platform banned in the U.S. – the odds of the speech exceeding 100 minutes had risen to 70% from 40% the previous day.
Trump’s Past Speeches: A Shifting Baseline
Looking at past State of the Union addresses offers some context, though recent history suggests a changing pattern. The American Presidency Project at the University of California, Santa Barbara, tracks the length of these speeches. During his first term, Trump’s average speech length was 1 hour, 20 minutes, and 20 seconds, falling just short of the longest speech of that term, which clocked in at 1 hour, 22 minutes, and 25 seconds. But, his first address to Congress after his second inauguration on March 4, 2025, lasted significantly longer – 1 hour, 39 minutes, and 32 seconds.
It’s important to note that the 2025 address wasn’t technically a State of the Union, as these speeches typically assess accomplishments over a year in office, something not yet possible at the beginning of a new term.
Historical Precedent and Authoritarian Rhetoric
The possibility of a speech exceeding two hours is drawing comparisons to historical examples of lengthy addresses by authoritarian figures. Fidel Castro’s 1960 speech to the United Nations lasted 269 minutes (4 hours and 29 minutes), and Adolf Hitler’s 1939 Reichstag speech lasted approximately two and a half hours. If Trump were to surpass the two-hour mark, it would be the longest State of the Union address in history. For comparison, Joe Biden averaged 1 hour and 7 minutes, Barack Obama averaged 1 hour and 2 minutes, and George W. Bush averaged around 52 minutes.
The Fine Print: Rules of the Bet
Those participating in prediction markets should carefully review the specific rules governing the bets. According to Kalshi, the speech length will be measured from the “first word audibly said by Trump” into a microphone, excluding any audio picked up by a “hot mic” during his entrance or exit. The platform’s rules state: “Speaking will be measured from first word audibly said by Trump to the last word audibly said by Trump. Pauses in speech will be included in the speech time if they are between those two points. First word will be recognized when Donald Trump speaks in an official capacity into the microphone. Words picked up on a hot mic during Donald Trump’s entrance &. exit will not count.”
Potential Conflicts of Interest
Adding another layer of complexity, Donald Trump Jr., the president’s son, is an advisor to both Kalshi and Polymarket. This connection raises concerns about potential conflicts of interest and the possibility of insider information influencing the betting outcomes.
It remains unclear exactly how long President Trump’s speech will last. However, caution is advised for anyone considering placing bets on its duration. The situation underscores the potential for manipulation and the importance of critical thinking when navigating the intersection of politics and financial speculation.
As the State of the Union address unfolds, the focus will shift to the substance of the president’s remarks and their implications for the upcoming elections. The length of the speech, while generating considerable buzz, may ultimately prove less significant than the policies and priorities outlined within it. Share your thoughts on the potential impact of the speech in the comments below.
Disclaimer: This article provides informational content only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.
