Philippines Midterm Elections: A Turning Point for Marcos and Duterte?

The philippines midterm elections held on Monday are more than just a vote; they’re a pivotal moment that could reshape the nation’s political landscape, especially concerning the power dynamics between President Ferdinand Marcos and Vice President Sara Duterte. Wiht all eyes on the senate seats, local posts, and the looming impeachment trial, the stakes are incredibly high. How will these elections impact the future trajectory of Philippine politics and the potential presidential race in 2028?

The High Stakes of the midterm Elections

Over 160,000 police officers were deployed to ensure security during the elections, highlighting the intensity of these polls. These elections determine half of the senate and numerous local positions, making them critical for national and local governance. The most gripping narrative, however, revolves around the escalating feud between President Marcos and Vice President Duterte, once political allies.

This rift intensified following Vice President Duterte’s February impeachment and her father, Rodrigo Duterte’s, potential transfer to the International Criminal Court (ICC) for his controversial drug war. The elected senators will play a crucial role as jurors in the impeachment trial,setting the stage for notable political shifts.

Key Players and Potential Outcomes

Among the senatorial front-runners are diverse figures, including a TV host, a comedian, and a former Duterte lieutenant potentially facing ICC scrutiny. Former boxing champion Manny Pacquiao hovered just outside the winning circle, illustrating the varied backgrounds of those vying for power.

Cleve Arguelles, president and CEO of WR Numero Research, noted that the Dutertes face an existential threat. Losing control of Davao, their stronghold in Mindanao, could considerably weaken their national influence. Removing Sara Duterte from the 2028 presidential equation would open up opportunities for other contenders, fundamentally altering the political chessboard.

Marcos’s Sliding Popularity

Interestingly, the Dutertes’ struggles haven’t necessarily boosted Marcos’s standing. Recent surveys reveal a sharp decline in his approval ratings, plummeting from nearly 50% to just 25% in about three months. This dramatic shift raises questions about his administration’s performance and public perception.

Dennis Coronacion from the University of Santo Tomas suggests that midterm elections frequently enough serve as a referendum on the incumbent president.Jean Franco of the University of the philippines points out that Marcos lacks a signature achievement, and his administration’s focus on sara Duterte might potentially be alienating voters.

The Shadow of Violence

While urban areas like Manila offer safe polling environments, the risk of violence increases in more remote regions. The 2022 presidential election saw tragic incidents, including the killing of security guards and a grenade attack in Mindanao. To combat this, the Commission on Elections (Comelec) took the unusual step of removing top police officials in certain municipalities due to security failures.

Although Comelec reported 81 acts of “politically related” violence between January 12 and May 7, resulting in 16 deaths, officials claim these numbers are lower compared to past elections. However, the threat of violence remains a significant concern.

According to Alicor Panao, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines, the president’s political influence typically wanes in the second half of their term. As legislators and local officials begin preparing for the next presidential election, the dynamics of power shift, regardless of the midterm election results.”

Analyzing the Key Factors Influencing the election

Several factors are shaping the current political climate:

• The Marcos-Duterte Feud: The escalating tension between the president and vice president is a major talking point.
• ICC Investigation: The potential investigation into Rodrigo Duterte’s drug war looms large.
• Economic Issues: Concerns about inflation and job creation remain top priorities for voters.
• South China Sea Dispute: despite its importance, the conflict with China is secondary to domestic issues for many Filipinos.

Impact on International Relations

The Philippines relationship with both the U.S. and China may well be impacted by the election outcomes, particularly regarding foreign policy and security agreements. Any shift in senatorial composition could lead to altered legislative support for international treaties and alliances.

The outcome of the elections is poised to exert a notable influence on the approach the Philippines adopts when engaging in regional and international forums,especially pertaining to discussions on economic collaboration and maritime security within the South China Sea.

Voter Concerns and Priorities

While geopolitical issues such as the South china Sea dispute garner attention, surveys indicate that Filipino voters are primarily concerned with bread-and-butter issues like inflation and job availability.These economic anxieties often outweigh foreign policy considerations when voters head to the polls.

The focus on economic stability and livelihood opportunities underscores the need for the government to address these immediate concerns to maintain public trust and support.

Table: Key Factors and Their Potential Impacts

The Road to 2028

The midterm elections are not just about the immediate future; they’re also a precursor to the 2028 presidential race. Potential candidates will be closely watching the outcomes, assessing their chances and strategizing their campaigns. The political landscape could dramatically change depending on who gains or loses influence in these elections.

Will the Philippines see new faces emerge, or will established political families continue to dominate? The answers will begin to unfold as the results of the midterm elections become clear.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Given the current political climate and the Marcos-Duterte dynamic, what specific legislative or policy changes are most likely to emerge from the outcomes of these midterm elections, and how might these shifts impact the implementation of national progress plans?

Philippines Midterm Elections: A Turning Point – Interview with Dr. elena Reyes

Archyde News is pleased to present an exclusive interview with Dr. Elena Reyes, a leading political analyst at the Institute for Philippine Governance. Dr. Reyes, thank you for joining us today to discuss the critical Philippines midterm elections and their potential impact on the nation’s future. Let’s dive right in.

The Core Questions

Archyde News: Dr. Reyes, the Philippines midterm elections are generating notable buzz. Could you give us your initial assessment of the stakes involved in these polls, especially considering the Marcos-Duterte dynamic?

Dr. Reyes: Certainly.these midterm elections are undeniably a pivotal moment. They aren’t just about filling senate seats and local posts; they’re fundamentally about the balance of power. The most significant narrative arc is, without a doubt, the evolving relationship between President Marcos and vice President Duterte. It impacts everything from legislative priorities to the trajectory of the 2028 presidential race. The outcome could either entrench Marcos’s power or, conversely, significantly weaken his position, opening up opportunities for others – possibly, even within the Duterte camp, but with a different strategy.

Archyde News: The escalating tension between President Marcos and Vice President Duterte is a key factor. How do you see this feud influencing voter behavior and the electoral outcomes?

Dr. Reyes: The Marcos-Duterte feud undoubtedly casts a long shadow. It forces voters to choose sides, even if they’re not entirely aligned with either camp. It has the potential to divide the political landscape. Support for either Marcos or Duterte can become less about policy and more about loyalty. this polarization could lead to lower voter turnout among the undecided and a more intense competition for those who do come out to vote.

Archyde News: We’ve seen a decline in President Marcos’s approval ratings. How significant is this,and what factors do you believe are contributing to this shift?

Dr. Reyes: Marcos’s dropping approval ratings are indeed concerning for his governance.Several factors contribute. The primary ones are economic issues: inflation, job creation, and the overall cost of living.The lack of a signature achievement can be detrimental in midterm elections serving as a referendum on the incumbent. The focus on the feud with Vice President Duterte may also be alienating some voters who are more concerned with day-to-day life. The electorate is practical; they wont solutions, and they want them now.

Specific Issues

Archyde News: The potential inquiry by the International Criminal Court (ICC) into Rodrigo Duterte’s drug war is another significant factor. How is this influencing the election and political allegiances?

Dr. Reyes: The specter of the ICC is a game-changer. It directly affects political maneuvering. Some politicians choose to distance themselves to protect their own political futures, altering the customary political alliances. This can influence the senate composition which has an impact on international relations, particularly with groups like the US and China.

Archyde News: Voter priorities are primarily focused on economic issues. Should the south China Sea dispute be seen as less critically important to voters than domestic policies such as inflation?

Dr. Reyes: It is the clear consensus. While the South China Sea dispute is a pivotal matter of national security and foreign policy, the average Filipino is immediately concerned with bread-and-butter issues, food security, and jobs. Its understandable.People prioritize their livelihoods and the well-being of their families above all else. The government must get a handle on issues like inflation and ensure access to basic needs to retain public confidence.

Looking Ahead

Archyde News: Considering all these factors, how would you describe the road to the 2028 presidential election? What potential shifts or new faces might emerge?

Dr. Reyes: The midterm elections will definitely reshape the landscape. Candidates and established political families will be keenly watching the outcomes. A weakening for either the Marcos or Duterte camps could open doors for fresh faces. It is plausible, considering that there is an ingrained political dynastic system in the Philippines. It’s all to play for, however. political dynamics shift, especially in this multi-party system, alliances are easily made depending on who is perceived to have power at different moments.

Archyde News: Dr. Reyes, thank you for sharing your insights with us.It’s been a very insightful discussion.

Dr. Reyes: My pleasure. I hope this helps to clarify the intricate dynamics of these critical Philippine elections.

Archyde News: We encourage our readers to share their thoughts and predictions in the comments section below. What do you think will be the most significant outcome of these midterm elections?