Dodge Ridge ski resort in California is bracing for a significant winter storm expected to deliver between 64 and 103 inches of snow between Sunday evening and Thursday, February 19th. The forecast, driven by a potent atmospheric river, promises several feet of powder for skiers and snowboarders, though early snowfall will be dense and wind-impacted. The substantial snowfall is expected to create challenging conditions, particularly on Tuesday, with strong ridge winds potentially affecting lift operations.
The approaching storm is being closely monitored by meteorologists, with models showing a high degree of confidence in its arrival and intensity. Snow levels will initially be relatively high, between 4,500 and 6,000 feet, but are forecast to drop significantly midweek, leading to lighter, more powdery conditions. This shift in snow quality is anticipated to create optimal skiing and snowboarding conditions from Wednesday into Thursday.
Storm Timeline and Snowfall Rates
Snowfall is expected to begin Sunday evening and intensify overnight into Monday. According to forecasts, the ECMWF, GFS, ICON, and GDPS models all align on a Sunday evening arrival, bolstering confidence in the storm’s timing. Early snowfall through Monday will be dense and cohesive, with snow-liquid ratios (SLRs) around 9-11:1. Winds will increase alongside the snowfall, with ridge gusts potentially reaching 45-65 mph by Monday, according to the forecast.
The core of the storm is predicted to hit between Monday night and Wednesday, bringing peak snowfall rates Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Snow levels are expected to fall to between 3,000 and 4,000 feet on Tuesday, and further to 2,000-3,000 feet by Wednesday. This drop in snow levels will coincide with a shift towards lighter, more powdery snow, as SLRs climb to 14-18:1 and temperatures settle into the teens. Dodge Ridge remains open during the storm, and conditions between stronger wind gusts are expected to be favorable for skiing and snowboarding from Wednesday into Thursday.
Wind and Snow Quality Considerations
Alongside the significant snowfall, strong winds are a key factor in this week’s forecast. Sustained southwest winds of 25-40 mph are anticipated, with gusts potentially reaching 50-70 mph, particularly Tuesday night into early Wednesday. These winds could impact lift operations and create challenging conditions for skiers and snowboarders. The changing snow levels and temperatures will also influence snow quality. Initially, the snow will be dense and wet, but as temperatures drop and SLRs increase, it will transition to a lighter, more powdery consistency.
The storm’s intensity is expected to gradually ease on Thursday, though accumulating snowfall is still anticipated. Forecast certainty decreases beyond Thursday, with models diverging on the timing and intensity of any potential follow-up systems. However, the larger-scale weather pattern remains favorable for additional cold and wet systems to impact Northern California next week, suggesting the possibility of further snowfall opportunities.
Looking Ahead
While the immediate focus is on the substantial snowfall expected through Thursday, meteorologists are also monitoring the potential for additional storms next week. The timing, intensity, and snow levels of these potential systems remain uncertain, and further updates will be provided as the forecast becomes clearer. For those planning trips to Dodge Ridge or other resorts in the Sierra Nevada, staying informed about the latest weather conditions is crucial.
The current forecast presents a significant opportunity for winter sports enthusiasts in California. With potentially over 8 feet of snow expected at Dodge Ridge, the coming days promise challenging yet rewarding conditions for skiers and snowboarders. As the storm progresses, continued monitoring of weather updates and resort conditions will be essential for a safe and enjoyable experience.
