Hong Kong’s Survival Depends on Mastering Geopolitics, Former Singapore Diplomat Warns

Over the next decade, Hong Kong’s economic future hinges not just on trade and finance, but on its ability to navigate a rapidly escalating geopolitical rivalry. A stark warning from former Singaporean diplomat Kishore Mahbubani underscores this reality: Hong Kong is poised to become a “political football” in the US-China contest, and its leaders must urgently cultivate “geopolitical instincts” to survive – and even thrive.

The Shifting Global Order and Hong Kong’s Unique Position

Mahbubani, speaking at the Fullerton Forum in Hong Kong, highlighted a broader trend: the decline of Western dominance and the rise of a multipolar world. This isn’t simply a change in power dynamics; it’s a fundamental reshaping of international institutions and alliances. He argued that the West needs to adapt to this new reality by ceding ground to emerging powers, a point that resonates with growing calls for reform within organizations like the United Nations. Hong Kong, uniquely positioned under the “one country, two systems” framework, finds itself at the epicenter of this shift.

Leveraging Differentiation as a Strategic Asset

Crucially, Mahbubani emphasized that Hong Kong’s distinct system – its differences from mainland China – isn’t a liability, but a valuable asset. However, this differentiation only holds value if actively and strategically communicated. The message, he suggests, needs to be consistently conveyed both within Hong Kong and on the international stage. This isn’t about choosing sides, but about articulating a compelling narrative of Hong Kong’s role as a bridge – a unique platform for engagement with both China and the West.

Why the US-China Rivalry Makes Hong Kong a Target

The core of Mahbubani’s warning lies in the understanding that both the US and China have strategic interests tied to Hong Kong’s fate. As he pointedly stated, Beijing *wants* Hong Kong to succeed, in part because Washington actively *doesn’t*. This creates a precarious situation where Hong Kong’s autonomy and economic stability can be leveraged – or threatened – by both superpowers. The city’s financial system, its legal framework, and its status as a global trade hub all make it a potent tool in the broader geopolitical game.

Developing “Geopolitical Instincts”: What Does That Mean?

“Geopolitical instincts” aren’t about becoming pawns in a larger conflict. Instead, it’s about developing a sophisticated understanding of the underlying power dynamics, anticipating potential flashpoints, and proactively shaping the narrative around Hong Kong’s role. This requires:

• Strategic Communication: Clearly articulating Hong Kong’s value proposition to both China and the West, emphasizing its unique strengths and contributions.
• Risk Assessment: Identifying potential vulnerabilities and developing contingency plans to mitigate the impact of geopolitical shocks.
• Diversification: Reducing over-reliance on any single market or economic partner.
• Cultivating Relationships: Building strong relationships with key stakeholders across the geopolitical spectrum.

Future Trends: Beyond the US-China Binary

While the US-China rivalry currently dominates the landscape, Hong Kong’s future will also be shaped by other emerging trends. The rise of regional powers like India and ASEAN, the increasing importance of technological competition, and the growing impact of climate change all present both challenges and opportunities. Hong Kong’s ability to adapt to these evolving dynamics will be crucial. For example, the city could position itself as a leading hub for green finance and sustainable development, attracting investment and expertise from around the world. Brookings Institute provides further analysis on Hong Kong’s evolving role.

The Role of International Organizations

Mahbubani’s call for the West to cede ground in international organizations is particularly relevant for Hong Kong. As emerging powers gain greater influence within these institutions, Hong Kong can leverage its unique position to facilitate dialogue and cooperation. This could involve hosting international conferences, promoting cross-cultural exchange programs, and advocating for policies that promote inclusive growth and sustainable development. The city’s legal expertise and financial infrastructure could be invaluable in supporting these efforts.

Hong Kong’s path forward isn’t simply about weathering the storm of geopolitical competition. It’s about proactively shaping its own destiny, leveraging its unique strengths, and embracing the opportunities presented by a rapidly changing world. The development of those crucial “geopolitical instincts” isn’t a luxury – it’s a necessity for survival. What steps do you think Hong Kong leaders should prioritize to navigate this complex landscape? Share your thoughts in the comments below!