South China Sea: Chinese Report claims Scarborough Shoal Reefs are Healthy, Despite Rising Thermal Stress

Manila, Philippines – A new environmental assessment released by the Chinese Ministry of Ecology and Environment claims coral reefs at the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea are currently healthy and resilient to climate change, though warns of potential bleaching risks due to increasing thermal stress.The report,conducted by multiple Chinese agencies,rates the atoll’s overall maritime environment as “excellent,” finding no traces of cyanide in water,sediment,or fish samples.

Scarborough Shoal, known as Huangyan Island in China and panatag Shoal in the Philippines, remains a focal point of contention between the two nations. Manila has previously accused Chinese fishing crews of utilizing cyanide to illegally catch fish in the area, a practice that severely damages coral reefs.

The assessment’s findings come as China continues to assert de facto control over the shoal since a 2012 naval standoff, steadily increasing its presence in the region. In September, Beijing announced plans to designate Scarborough Shoal as a nature reserve, a move swiftly condemned by the Philippines, which maintains it holds exclusive authority over environmental protection within its territory and maritime zones.

While the report highlights the current health of the reefs,it acknowledges the growing threat of thermal stress,which could lead to coral bleaching events. This underscores the vulnerability of even resilient ecosystems to the impacts of climate change.

The release of this assessment is likely to further complicate already strained relations between China and the Philippines, notably as both countries navigate competing claims and environmental concerns in the strategically vital South China Sea.

How does China’s claim of “stability and resilience” at Scarborough Shoal align with the 2016 PCA ruling?

China Declares Scarborough Shoal Stable and Resilient Amid Disputes

Recent assertions by Beijing

China has recently declared the Scarborough Shoal, known as Huangyan Dao in Chinese, to be “stable and resilient” despite ongoing territorial disputes with the Philippines and other neighboring nations. This statement, released by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign affairs on November 28, 2025, emphasizes China’s continued administrative control and commitment to safeguarding its sovereignty over the area. The declaration comes amidst heightened tensions in the South china Sea and follows increased Philippine protests regarding Chinese activities near the shoal. this assertion directly challenges the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling which invalidated China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea.

The Strategic Importance of Scarborough Shoal

The Scarborough Shoal is a vital fishing ground and holds significant strategic importance due to its location within the broader South China Sea.

* Fishing Rights: The shoal has historically been a customary fishing area for Filipino, Chinese, and Vietnamese fishermen. Control over the area directly impacts access to crucial marine resources.

* geopolitical Leverage: Its proximity to the Philippines’ main island of Luzon gives the controlling nation significant geopolitical leverage in the region.

* Potential Military Applications: The shoal’s features, though largely submerged, could potentially be developed for military purposes, raising concerns about militarization of the South China Sea.

* Energy Resources: While confirmed reserves are debated, the area is believed to potentially hold untapped energy resources, further increasing its strategic value.

China’s Activities and Infrastructure Development

over the past decade, China has significantly increased its presence around Scarborough Shoal. This includes:

1. Coast guard Patrols: Consistent and increased patrols by the China Coast Guard (CCG) are a regular occurrence, frequently enough leading to confrontations with Filipino vessels.
2. construction of Structures: Satellite imagery has revealed the construction of structures on and around the shoal, including what appear to be radar facilities and potential military installations. These structures are designed to assert control and monitor activity in the area.
3. environmental Monitoring Stations: China claims to have established environmental monitoring stations to study the marine ecosystem, but these are viewed with suspicion by neighboring countries who believe they serve a dual-purpose of surveillance.
4. Artificial Island Development (Limited): While not as extensive as in the Spratly Islands, some limited land reclamation activities have been observed, raising concerns about further infrastructure development.

Philippine Response and International Reactions

The Philippines has consistently protested China’s actions, filing numerous diplomatic protests and asserting its sovereign rights under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

* Diplomatic Protests: The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) regularly issues statements condemning Chinese activities and demanding adherence to international law.

* Increased Naval Presence: The Philippines has been strengthening its naval capabilities and increasing its presence in the West Philippine Sea (the Philippine name for the South China Sea) to assert its claims.

* Alliances and Partnerships: The Philippines is bolstering its alliances with the United States, Japan, and Australia to counter China’s growing influence. The US has repeatedly reaffirmed its commitment to defending the Philippines under the Mutual Defense Treaty.

* International Scrutiny: The international community, including the United States and the European union, has expressed concern over China’s actions and called for a peaceful resolution to the disputes based on international law.

The 2016 Arbitral Ruling and its Implications

The 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague invalidated China’s “nine-dash line” claim, which asserts historical rights over a vast portion of the South China Sea.However,China has consistently rejected the ruling,refusing to participate in the proceedings and dismissing the tribunal’s authority.

* Legal Basis for Philippine Claims: The ruling provided a legal basis for the Philippines’ claims to areas within its Exclusive economic Zone (EEZ),including Scarborough Shoal.

* China’s Rejection: China’s continued rejection of the ruling has fueled tensions and undermined efforts to resolve the disputes peacefully.

* Impact on Regional Stability: The dispute over the South China Sea, and China’s disregard for the arbitral ruling, poses a significant threat to regional stability and international law.

Potential Scenarios and Future Outlook

Several potential scenarios could unfold regarding Scarborough Shoal:

* Continued Status Quo: China maintains its control, and the Philippines continues to protest, with occasional confrontations. This is the most likely short-term scenario.

* Escalation of Tensions: Increased military activity or a miscalculation could lead to a direct confrontation between China and the Philippines, potentially drawing in other regional powers.

* Negotiated Settlement: A breakthrough in negotiations, potentially mediated by a third party, could lead to a mutually acceptable agreement on resource sharing and joint development. this is considered a less likely scenario given China’s firm stance.