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Baffert Returns to Kentucky Derby with Citizen Bull; ‘Journalism’ Favored
LOUISVILLE, Ky. (Archyde.com) — The 151st Kentucky Derby is set to run Saturday at Churchill Downs, with a full field of 20 horses vying for the roses. This year’s race marks the return of legendary trainer bob Baffert, who saddles Citizen Bull, the 2-year-old champion, a horse attempting to break a long-standing jinx from the dreaded No. 1 post position.
Baffert, a six-time Kentucky Derby winner, faces a unique challenge this year. No horse has won the derby from the inside post since Ferdinand in 1986. The No. 1 position is considered disadvantageous due to the crowded conditions on the first turn, forcing the horse to either surge to the lead or drop far back to avoid being boxed in.
“It is indeed what it is,” Baffert said after the draw. “You can’t worry about it once you have the draw. The horses have to be ready to roll. “He does have a lot of speed, and it looks like once you get the one hole, I don’t need to give instructions what he’s going to have to do away from he’s going to have to leave there running and but the horse wants to do that anyway.”
Jockey Martin Garcia will likely be instructed to aggressively send Citizen Bull to the front, hoping to establish a manageable pace.
The morning-line favorite, Journalism, drew the No. 8 post, while Sovereignty will start from the No. 18 hole, a position that suits the colt’s come-from-behind style. Sandman, another closer, drew the No.17 post, a position from which no horse has ever won the Derby.
Complete List of Horses, Jockeys, and Odds:
Here’s the complete list of horses, their jockeys, and morning-line odds:
- Citizen Bull, Martin Garcia (20-1)
- Neoequos, flavien Prat (30-1)
- Final Gambit, Luan Machado (30-1)
- Rodriguez, Mike Smith (12-1)
- American Promise, Nik Juarez (30-1)
- admire Daytona, Christophe Lemaire (30-1)
- Luxor cafe, Joao Moreira (15-1)
- Journalism, Umberto Rispoli (3-1)
- Burnham Square, Brian Hernandez Jr. (12-1)
- Grande, John Velazquez (20-1)
- Flying Mohawk, Joe Ramos (30-1)
- East Avenue, Manny Franco (20-1)
- Publisher, Irad Ortiz Jr. (20-1)
- Tiztastic,Joel Rosario (20-1)
- Render Judgement,Julien Leparoux (30-1)
- Coal Battle,Juan Vargas (30-1)
- Sandman,Jose Ortiz (6-1)
- Sovereignty,junior Alvarado (5-1)
- Chunk of Gold,Jareth Loveberry (30-1)
- Owen Almighty,Javier Castellano (30-1)
Also Eligible:
- Baeza,Flavien Prat
Historical Post Position Data
Historically,horses starting from inside positions (1-10) have a higher win rate in the Derby.
Here’s a breakdown of Derby winners by post position:
Post 1 – 8 winners
Post 2 – 7 winners
Post 3 – 6 winners
Post 4 – 5 winners
Post 5 – 10 winners
Post 6 – 2 winners
Post 7 – 8 winners
Post 8 – 9 winners
Post 9 – 4 winners
Post 10 – 9 winners
Post 11 – 2 winners
post 12 – 3 winners
Post 13 – 5 winners
Post 14 – 2 winners
Post 15 – 6 winners
Post 16 – 4 winners
Post 17 – 0 winners
Post 18 – 2 winners
Post 19 – 1 winner
Post 20 – 2 winners
Mott Seeks Another Derby Win with sovereignty
Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, who won the 2019 Derby via disqualification with Country House, returns with Sovereignty. Mott, who made his Derby debut in 1984, is 1 for 13 in the Run for the roses.
Briley and Coal Battle Make Derby Debut
trainer Lonnie Briley and owner Robbie Norman are set to experience their first Kentucky Derby with Coal Battle. Briley, known for his meticulous approach to horse selection, partnered with Norman to find the right horse at a yearling sale in Texas.
American Pharoah Still a Fan Favorite
Ten years after his Triple Crown victory, American Pharoah continues to draw crowds at Coolmore America’s Ashford stud. The champion colt swept the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, and Belmont Stakes in 2015, becoming the first Triple Crown winner since 1978.
Given Evelyn’s insights, who does she see as the main threat to win the Kentucky Derby?
Table of Contents
- 1. Given Evelyn’s insights, who does she see as the main threat to win the Kentucky Derby?
- 2. Kentucky Derby 2025 Preview: A Conversation with Race Analyst, Evelyn Reed
- 3. Archyde: Welcome,Evelyn! The buzz around the Derby is electric. What are your initial thoughts on the field this year?
- 4. Archyde: Citizen bull’s position is a meaningful talking point. How do you assess his chances from the dreaded No. 1 post?
- 5. Archyde: Journalism is the morning-line favorite. What makes this horse stand out?
- 6. Archyde: Other horses like Sovereignty and Sandman have engaging starting positions.What do you expect from them?
- 7. Archyde: The historical data reveals interesting trends regarding post positions. How much weight should we give to history when handicapping the race?
- 8. Archyde: Bill Mott is making his Derby comeback with Sovereignty. what is the perspective for Mott?
- 9. Archyde: Let’s talk about a possible long shot, maybe Coal Battle for Lonnie Briley. What are your thoughts?
- 10. Archyde: who do you see as the main threat to win, and the dark horse that could surprise us?
- 11. Archyde: Evelyn, thank you for your time and insights. We’re all looking forward to an exciting Kentucky Derby!
Kentucky Derby 2025 Preview: A Conversation with Race Analyst, Evelyn Reed
The 151st Kentucky Derby is just around the corner, and the anticipation is building! With legendary trainer Bob Baffert returning and a field of 20 horses ready to run, the “Run for the Roses” promises to be a thrilling event. We sat down with Evelyn Reed, a seasoned race analyst, to get her insights on this year’s contenders and potential upsets.
Archyde: Welcome,Evelyn! The buzz around the Derby is electric. What are your initial thoughts on the field this year?
Evelyn Reed: Thanks for having me! The field is incredibly competitive. We have established names like Bob Baffert returning with Citizen Bull,which adds intrigue.The No. 1 post position always presents a unique challenge, and it will be engaging to see how Martin Garcia strategizes. Beyond him, there’s genuine quality throughout, making this Derby notably challenging to call. We’re seeing a high level of talent among the horses.
Archyde: Citizen bull’s position is a meaningful talking point. How do you assess his chances from the dreaded No. 1 post?
Evelyn Reed: The No. 1 post does present a disadvantage. the goal for Citizen Bull is to secure a good position early, and not get bullied by the other horses, they need to leave quickly. It will be crucial for jockey Martin Garcia to get him out cleanly. the speed is there, as Baffert mentioned, but it’s about navigating that first turn without getting boxed in. It adds a layer of excitement. The pressure is on.
Archyde: Journalism is the morning-line favorite. What makes this horse stand out?
Evelyn Reed: Journalism has shown consistency and has a favorable post position at No. 8. He’s demonstrated an ability to handle the pressure of big races. This horse has consistently shown potential and is highly likely to perform well.
Archyde: Other horses like Sovereignty and Sandman have engaging starting positions.What do you expect from them?
Evelyn Reed: Sovereignty in the No. 18 position could benefit from running from behind and staying clear of the chaos early. Sandman in the No. 17 position will also be interesting to watch as no horse has ever won from that post, but horses like Sandman can be a great “dark horse” to watch for.
Archyde: The historical data reveals interesting trends regarding post positions. How much weight should we give to history when handicapping the race?
Evelyn Reed: Historical data is a good guideline, of course. The stats show winners coming from the inside posts, but a horse’s fitness, the jockey’s skill, and the track conditions all play a role. We can’t ignore history, but the dynamics of the race often trump the historical trends.
Archyde: Bill Mott is making his Derby comeback with Sovereignty. what is the perspective for Mott?
Evelyn Reed: Bill Mott’s experience speaks volumes. He’s known for training strong horses, and a win at this point would be a great accomplishment. Sovereignty’s running style could be an advantage if the early pace is too aggressive.It all depends on how the race unfolds.
Archyde: Let’s talk about a possible long shot, maybe Coal Battle for Lonnie Briley. What are your thoughts?
Evelyn Reed: We are always looking at those Derby debutante horses. We are looking to see how it all connects and Briley’s meticulous approach to sourcing the horse is key. Coal Battle could take many by surprise. This also connects with a growing trend to look for overlooked names and it gives a good prospect to have a good start.
Archyde: who do you see as the main threat to win, and the dark horse that could surprise us?
Evelyn Reed: Journalism is the horse to beat, given its form and post position. However, the Derby always throws curveballs. A dark horse to watch is Sandman. The 6-1 odds and style can make them very dangerous, even from the No. 17 post. It’s going to be a thrilling race!
Archyde: Evelyn, thank you for your time and insights. We’re all looking forward to an exciting Kentucky Derby!
Evelyn Reed: My pleasure! I can’t wait to see how it all unfolds.
UCF Knights football faces a chilling challenge this weekend as they prepare for temperatures nearing 40 degrees in Morgantown, West Virginia. Coach Gus Malzahn provided insights on how his team plans to address the cold weather during a Monday press conference.
As the Knights gear up for their final road game of the season, they’ll navigate the iconic country roads of West Virginia, aiming to turn around their season after a disappointing recent performance.
The UCF Knights (4-6, 2-5 Big 12) will take on the West Virginia Mountaineers (5-5, 4-3) in a crucial matchup that kicks off at 3:30 p.m. Saturday, with the game set to be broadcast live on ESPNU. After a bye week following a turnover-heavy defeat against Arizona State, UCF must secure victories in their remaining games to extend their streak of bowl game appearances to nine consecutive years.
Meanwhile, West Virginia is on the cusp of achieving bowl eligibility and can clinch it by defeating UCF, which would also extend their all-time series advantage over the Knights to 4-0. The Mountaineers previously thwarted UCF’s homecoming festivities last October with a decisive 41-28 win at the Bounce House.
West Virginia will toast its Senior Day on Saturday, seeking that pivotal sixth win, a task made more feasible against UCF compared to their impending confrontation with 6-4 Texas Tech later this month.
Chris Boyle: West Virginia 38, UCF 33
A season that began with lofty aspirations is now dwindling, culminating in a challenging contest against West Virginia. Even with UCF recovering during their bye week and anticipating the return of top cornerback BJ Adams, containing the Mountaineers’ ground game presents a formidable challenge. Last year, West Virginia racked up an impressive 289 rushing yards and five touchdowns against the Knights in Orlando, and while UCF now boasts the 31st-ranked run defense, the resurgence of Garrett Greene from injury complicates the situation further.
The Mountaineers have struggled at home this year, suffering four losses, but the expected chilly kickoff temperatures in the mid-30s may well play into their strengths as they aim to overpower UCF.
Chris Vinel: West Virginia 34, UCF 27
Greene, who has demonstrated impressive mobility, has rushed for at least 85 yards in five consecutive games, showcasing his capability as a dual-threat quarterback.
Ken Willis: UCF 43, West Virginia 40
In analyzing the matchup, I observe two key factors. First, while the Mountaineers entered the season hopeful, their inability to capitalize at home has left them reeling; they hold a dismal 1-4 record at home this year against FBS opponents.
Secondly, let’s consider the effects of the current weather trends. It’s that time of year when the air turns crisp, and pets can’t help but get energetic and excited as humidity gives way to cooler temperatures, a sly metaphor for how the Knights may react to the chilly conditions come Saturday. Don’t expect them to shy away from the cold—they’ll embrace it, while the Mountaineers will graciously host the contest.
The year 2017 continues to loom large in the conversation surrounding the Colorado State football team.
In the current 2024 season, the Rams are eager to reclaim aspects of success that have eluded them since 2017, the last year CSU experienced a notable competitive edge in college football.
This week presents a critical opportunity for CSU to turn back the clock.
A victory this Saturday against Nevada would:
- Secure bowl eligibility for the Rams
- Extend CSU’s winning streak to four games
- Elevate CSU’s conference record to four wins
All these achievements would mark significant milestones not accomplished since, you guessed it, 2017.
However, clinching a win is poised to be a formidable challenge against a resilient Nevada team (6 p.m. MT Saturday, CBS Sports Net).
Test Nevada’s will
Nevada (3-6, 0-3 Mountain West) began their season with a near-upset against SMU, a team now ranked No. 20 in the nation. This set the stage for a competitive year.
First-year head coach Jeff Choate galvanized his team, fostering a sense of belief and purpose. Just three weeks ago, the Wolf Pack celebrated an impressive victory over Oregon State—whom CSU lost to in a grueling double-overtime match.
However, momentum has since faltered. Two weeks ago, Nevada held a lead against Fresno State only to be blanked in the second half, and last week, the Wolf Pack suffered a disheartening 34-13 defeat against Hawaii.
Choate voiced concerns regarding certain players prioritizing personal agendas over team values. “Some of them won’t be here if they can’t change their behavior,” he said, according to Nevada SportsNet.
As the season progresses, Nevada’s likelihood of postseason play is dimming. CSU must harness the pressure on the Wolf Pack to see how they respond.
Third down battles
The records can be misleading in this matchup. Comparing critical statistics reveals challenges ahead:
- Points per game: 21.75 for CSU/25 for Nevada
- Points allowed: 24.5 for CSU/27.56 for Nevada
- Total defensive yards allowed per game: 404.13 for CSU/392.44 for Nevada
- Total offensive yards per game: 368.75 for CSU/378.67 for Nevada
Both teams have largely engaged in tightly contested games, though Nevada has tasted defeat more frequently.
Nevada stands fourth nationally in converting 53% of its third downs, whereas CSU lags behind at 94th, converting only 38%. Sustaining drives by succeeding in third-down situations will be vital.
The Brendon Lewis problem
CSU faces a familiar dilemma akin to last week’s preparation against New Mexico’s dynamic dual-threat quarterback, Devon Dampier. The Rams managed to force three turnovers, which proved pivotal in their victory.
Nevada QB Brendon Lewis, while not identical to Dampier, poses his own challenges. Known for both his quarterback running game and passing efficiency, Lewis boasts a 67% completion rate, with ten touchdown passes and five interceptions—two occurring during desperate end-of-half attempts.
After missing last week’s matchup due to injury, Lewis is slated to return against CSU. The Rams will need to contain his ability to escape the pocket and force Nevada to rely more heavily on the passing game.
What’s the betting line for Colorado State vs Nevada?
Colorado State enters the game as a 2.5-point favorite, according to BetMGM. The Rams initially opened as a 1.5-point favorite.
Colorado State vs Nevada prediction for college football Week 10
Although CSU has flirted with danger by securing narrow victories, the team is gaining momentum with a new, tough identity.
Despite struggles with injuries and the challenges of transitioning between coaches, Nevada’s Choate will have his squad ready. However, CSU’s robust rushing strategy, particularly with former Nevada back Avery Morrow likely to be motivated, should give the Rams an edge.
A standout performance from Morrow, exceeding 100 yards, coupled with one or two crucial passing plays, should propel the Rams to a tightly contested victory.
CSU 24, Nevada 20.
Follow sports reporter Kevin Lytle on X and Instagram @Kevin_Lytle.
**Interview with Football Analyst Alex Thompson on Colorado State Rams vs. Nevada Wolf Pack**
**Interviewer:** Welcome, Alex! Thanks for joining us. There’s a lot of buzz around Colorado State heading into this weekend’s critical matchup against Nevada. The Rams are aiming for their first bowl eligibility since 2017. What’s the significance of this game for CSU?
**Alex Thompson:** Absolutely, it’s a pivotal moment for the Rams. Achieving bowl eligibility would not only mark a significant turnaround from previous seasons but also provide a huge boost in recruiting and team morale. They haven’t experienced that level of success since 2017, so there’s a lot riding on this game.
**Interviewer:** It sounds like the past weighs heavily on them. What are the specific hurdles they face against Nevada this Saturday?
**Alex Thompson:** One major obstacle is Nevada’s third-down efficiency. They’re ranked fourth nationally in converting 53% of their third downs, compared to CSU’s struggling 38%. If the Rams want to maintain possession and control the pace of the game, they must find a way to improve their third-down conversion rate. That will be crucial.
**Interviewer:** Speaking of Nevada, their head coach Jeff Choate has expressed concerns over team dynamics. How might this affect the Wolf Pack’s performance?
**Alex Thompson:** Choate’s comments highlight potential internal conflicts, which can certainly affect team performance. If players are focused on personal agendas rather than team goals, it can lead to disarray on the field. However, they’ve also shown resilience with a strong performance early in the season, so it’ll be interesting to see how they respond under pressure.
**Interviewer:** Last season’s matchup saw CSU defeat Nevada 30-20. Can history play a role in this game?
**Alex Thompson:** Definitely. Previous victories can provide a mental edge, boosting confidence for CSU. However, Nevada’s recent experiences against upper-tier teams like Oregon State could serve as motivation. They need to harness that energy, and if they can smooth out their issues, they have the tools to compete.
**Interviewer:** And what should fans keep an eye out for during this matchup?
**Alex Thompson:** Watch for QB Brendon Lewis of Nevada. He can challenge CSU’s defense with both his arm and legs. If the Rams can contain him and force turnovers like they did last week, they should have a good shot at winning. It’s going to come down to which team can better handle the pressure and seize opportunities.
**Interviewer:** Thanks, Alex. A lot is at stake this Saturday and it should be an exciting matchup!
**Alex Thompson:** My pleasure! It’s certainly going to be one to watch!