Energía y Minas

This Monday, The dollar closed at $4,550.53 on average, which meant a decrease of $81.11 compared to the Representative Market Rate, which for today was $4,631.64.

The opening price recorded by the Set-FX platform is $4,570. The maximum value was $4,579 and the minimum was $4,520. More than US$876.4 million was traded through 1,363 transactions.

The dollar remains near nine-month lows once morest the euro and a group of other currenciesfollowing a host of Federal Reserve officials made the case for a downward shift in the US central bank’s rate-tightening campaign, while concerns regarding a possible economic downturn weighed on the Actions.

Investors are increasingly contrasting the US outlook with a relatively rosier outlook for Europe, which many believe will steer clear of recession this year.

Forecasts of a US recession in the second half of 2023, ongoing disputes in Congress over the debt ceiling and signals from companies weighed on stock index futureswhich struggled to ride Friday’s momentum that lifted the S&P 500 following four days of losses.

“The market has been offloading dollars, reflecting the view that the Fed will cut rates at the end of the year”Rabobank’s Jane Foley told Bloomberg.

The barrel of Brent oil, the reference for Colombia, rose 1.04% to US$88.54; while WTI rose 0.62% to US$82.15.

Oil prices extended last week’s gains on a more favorable outlook due to an economic recovery expected this year in Chinathe world’s leading oil importer.

Last week, Brent rose 2.8%, while the US benchmark registered an advance of 1.8%.

The director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said on Friday that energy markets might tighten this year if the Chinese economy picks up as financial institutions expect.

“I wouldn’t be too relaxed regarding the markets, and 2023 may be a year where we see markets more tense than some colleagues may think.Birol told Archyde.com, speaking on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos.

This Thursday, the dollar closed at $4,691.31 on average, which meant a drop of $57.23 compared to the Representative Market Rate, which for today is $4,748.54.

The minimum of the day was $4,656, while the maximum reached $4,717.9. More than US$1,622.6 million were negotiated through 2,528 transactions.

The US CPI data has an impact on oil and the broader market as it will shape expectations regarding the speed of interest rate hikes in the world’s largest economy.

US inflation reached 6.5% per year in 2022 and core inflation at 5.7%. Last year the figure peaked at 9% and analyst projections were that the headline CPI figure for December would hit 6.5%.

Excluding food and energy, the consumer price index rose 0.3% last month and 5.7% more than a year earlier, according to a Labor Department report on Thursday. Economists see the indicator, known as the core CPI, as better than the general measure.

The barrel of Brent oil, the reference for Colombia, rose 2.13% to US$84.43; while WTI rose 1.89% to US$78.87.

China, the world’s biggest oil importer, is reopening its economy following the end of strict Covid-19 restrictions, raising optimism that demand for fuel will grow in 2023.

The market is also bracing for a further curb on Russian supply due to sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine.

The US Energy Information Administration said the upcoming EU ban on maritime imports of petroleum products from Russia on February 5 might be more damaging than the EU ban on maritime imports of crude oil. from Russia applied in December 2022.

This Friday, the dollar closed at $4,885.34, on average, which meant a drop of $104.24 compared to the Representative Market Rate, which for today is $4,989.58.

The opening price recorded by the Set-FX platform is $4,970. The maximum value is $4,982 and the minimum is $4,827. More than US$994.7 million have been traded through 1,884 transactions.

The dollar at the local level was drastically impacted since yesterday, following the figure of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released by the National Administrative Department of Statistics (Dane), which for December was 1.26%, while the annual figure closed at 13.12%much higher than expected.

Regarding the international scene, the dollar strengthened as Wall Street stock futures held steady and European stocks rose on Friday as traders braced for US jobs numbers that will help chart the way forward for Fed tightening Federal.

10-year Treasury yields stabilized following rising for the first time this week on Thursday following comments from Fed officials. A measure of dollar strength rose for a second day, while the yen fell to all-time lows. in a week, following the Bank of Japan revealed more unscheduled bond purchases to control its yield curve.

The Fed has remained “extremely aggressive” to avoid inadvertently easing financial conditions, Craig Erlam, a senior market analyst at Oanda, told Bloomberg. “But another strong jobs report today would further justify such an aggressive approach and perhaps send risk assets into a bit of a nose dive as the prospect of a higher terminal rate rises along with downside risks,” he wrote. in a note compiled by Bloomberg.

the barrel of Brent oil, the reference for Colombia, increased 1.07% to US$79.53 a barrel, while WTI rose 1.34% to US$74.66.

The prices of Petroleum They rose on Friday on hopes of increased Chinese demand, but the global economic outlook kept crude oil benchmarks heading for a weekly decline.

In addition, crude was also supported by a larger-than-expected drop in US distillate inventories for the week ending December 30, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday.

On a weekly basis, however, both the Brent and WTI contracts are on track to be down more than 7% from the previous week, pressured by concerns over the possibility of a global recession.

The dollar It has begun to show upward trends since this week, and this time was no exception, as this Thursday the currency touched intraday highs of $5,015, breaking the ceiling once more.

The currency closed at $4,989.62 on average, following an increase of $65.62 compared to the current Market Representative Rate (TRM), which was $4,924.

The minimum during the day reached $4,940, while the maximum exceeded the ceiling being $5,015.

At the national level, experts say that it is due to the conversations on pension reform and the inflation figures published by Dane, since the entity announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December it was 1.26%, while the annual figure closed at 13.12%, much higher than expected. Said registration is mainly driven by food and non-alcoholic beverages, which grew 27.81%, followed by restaurants and hotels, with 18.54%.

“Since the pension reform began to be mentioned, the market is very nervous with the dollar. Today, to finish off the issue a bit, the inflation data also came out too negative, the market expected inflation to moderate a bit and it shot up“, says Sebastián Toro, a trader specializing in economics and former Income and Stock Market adviser.

All of this causes the market to be affected, “that generates more nervousness and makes the market expect greater rate hikes. People begin to get nervous regarding the economic situation and the outlook for the country and that generates upward pressure on the market. dollar”, completes Toro.

“With the inflation data that was released today, more pressure is put on the Banco de la República to increase interest rates and this should eventually have an impact on the currency, but initially the movement has to do mainly with external pressures“, says David Cubides, director of economic research at Alianza Valores.

Internationally, the hike came following Fed minutes showed officials warned once morest underestimating their willingness to keep interest rates high for some time.

In addition, experts say that this is due to a global trend, “there is pressure at the international level, the currency in the United States has been gaining ground at the beginning of the year and the pressure on treasury bonds in this country increases uncertainty“, complete Cubides.

In the same way, they relate these behaviors to oil, “at a global level, oil prices remain at the bottom and that is putting pressure on the currency,” adds Cubides.

Regarding the consequences, the experts believe that “the consequences of a high dollar are seen in prices more immediately, but they also affect the plans that some companies have to invest or make changes in the face of higher costs of goods,” he says. Ana Vera Nieto, Chief Economist at In On Capital.