［東京 ２日 ロイター］ - ＜１０：１５＞ 日経平均は下げ幅拡大、輸出関連株の売り加速 日経平均は下げ幅を拡大し、前営業日比約４３０円安の２万７７００円台後半で推移 している。寄り付きから変わらず全業種で値下がりし、全面安の展開となっている。下げ 幅は一時４５０円を超えた。 輸出関連株の下げが目立っており、トヨタ自動車、日立製作所、ホ ンダが軟調。市場では、ドル／円相場での円高進行と前日の米株安が重しになっ ているとの声が聞かれた。「多くの企業がドル／円の想定レートを１３５円前後としてお り、さらなる円高進行は企業業績にとってマイナスになる可能性がある」（国内証券・ス トラテジスト）という。 足元のドルは１３５円台前半で、昨日の取引時間中より円高に振れている。 ＜０９：０５＞ 寄り付きの日経平均は反落、利益確定売り優勢 寄り付きの東京株式市場で日経平均は、前営業日比２４２円９０銭安の２万７９８３ 円１８銭と、反落してスタートした。寄り付き後も３５０円安と下げ幅を広げている。昨 日の株高の反動で利益確定売りが優勢となり、節目の２万８０００円を下回った。東証３ ３業種では、全業種値下がりしている。 昨日大きく上昇した銘柄の下げが目立ち、個別ではソフトバンクグループ、 東京エレクトロン、ファーストリテイリングが軟調。 主力のトヨタ自動車、ソニーグループもそれぞれ１％超安とさえな い。 ＜０８：２５＞ 寄り前の板状況、日産東京販売ＨＬＤＧが買い優勢 ニッコンＨＬ ＤＧは売り優勢 東証プライム市場の寄り前の板状況では、買い優勢と売り優勢のそれぞれ上位銘柄群 は以下の通り。 買い優勢 銘柄名 騰落 MID 買気 売気 終値 率 気配 配 配 1 日産東京販売ＨＬＤＧ 27% 378 378 378 298 2 進和 24% 2,54 2,54 2,54 2,04 5 5 5 5 3 サイバーエージェント 16% 1,43 1,43 1,43 1,23 6 5 6 9 4 ハブ 15% 769 769 769 669 5 ＲＳ Ｔｅｃｈｎｏｌｏｇｉｅ 11% 9,46 9,46 9,46 8,50 ｓ 0 0 0 0 6 ミズノ 11% 3,14 3,14 3,15 2,84 8 5 0 4 7 ニチアス 9% 2,65 2,65 2,65 2,43 7 7 7 6 8 ニフコ 9% 3,90 3,90 3,91 3,59 8 5 0 5 9 愛知製鋼 8% 2,45 2,44 2,45 2,26 0 9 0 9 10 理研計器 8% 5,34 5,34 5,35 4,95 5 0 0 5 売り優勢 銘柄名 騰落 MID 買気 売気 終値 率 気配 配 配 1 ニッコンＨＬＤＧ -21% 1,92 1,92 1,92 2,42 1 1 1 1 2 シップヘルスケアＨＬＤＧ <336 -18% 2,24 2,24 2,24 2,74 0.T> 3 3 3 3 3 テクノプロＨＬＤＧ -13% 3,33 3,33 3,33 3,85 5 5 5 5 4 スタンレー電気 -12% 2,49 2,49 2,49 2,82 5 4 5 8 5 トランザクション -9% 1,19 1,19 1,19 1,30 5 4 5 8 6 ネクソン -8% 2,71 2,71 2,71 2,95 1 0 1 3 7 小糸製作所 -8% 2,01 2,01 2,01 2,18 2 1 2 7 8 フリービット -7% 1,05 1,04 1,05 1,12 0 9 0 6 9 フジテック -7% 2,94 2,94 2,94 3,15 5 4 5 5 10 エヌ・ティ・ティ・データ <961 -7% 1,98 1,98 1,98 2,12 3.T> 1 0 1 1 (
TOKYO (Reuters) – Today’s Tokyo stock market is expected to weaken the Nikkei Stock Average. It is expected to take over the trend of the US stock price decline and start with selling first. The Nikkei Stock Average is likely to fall below 28,000 yen, as high-tech stocks such as electronic components and semiconductors are expected to sell as Apple’s AAPL.O fell more than 2%. The spread of the new coronavirus infection in China is weighing on investor sentiment, and trends in Asian stocks are also attracting attention.
The expected range for the Nikkei average is 27,850 yen to 28,150 yen.
On the previous day, all three major US stock indexes fell. Protests were held in major cities in China against harsh measures against the coronavirus, raising concerns over the economy. Apple was also sold over concerns about its impact on iPhone production.
Today’s Japanese stock market is expected to develop weakly, and it is likely that it will temporarily fall below the milestone of 28,000 yen. Following the drop in Apple stocks, electronic component and semiconductor stocks that are believed to be related to Apple are expected to move weakly. Chief Market Strategist Masahiro Ichikawa).
On the other hand, the United States is about to release important statistics such as personal consumption expenditure and employment data this week, and there is also speculation that it wants to see the contents. Mr. Ichikawa said, “It’s hard to imagine that the selling will accelerate all at once and lead to a sharp decline.” On the other hand, referring to the spread of coronavirus infections in China, he said, “Risk sentiment is deteriorating, and trends in Asian stocks between Japan and China will also be watched.”
In terms of the main schedule, domestically, the October unemployment rate (Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications) and the October job openings-to-applicants ratio (Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare) are scheduled to be announced. Overseas, the November Consumer Confidence Index (Conference Board) is scheduled to be announced in the United States.
[Market Eye]Stocks: Nikkei Stock Average is flat, Nikkei VI declines and voices of “eerie” | Reuters
［東京 １８日 ロイター］ - ＜１４：０２＞ 日経平均は横ばい圏、日経ＶＩの低下に「不気味」の声も 日経平均は後場に入ってマイナスに転じ、小幅安での推移となっている。市場では、 先物でまとまった売りが観測されたとして「北朝鮮のミサイル発射が嫌気されたようにも 見えるが、おそらく週末要因だろう」（国内証券のストラテジスト）との見方があった。 一方、２万８０００円付近で上値の重さが確認されたとの受け止めも出ている。日経 平均ボラティリティー・インデックス（ＶＩ）がレンジの下限と意識される１８台の前半 に低下しており「不気味さもあって、上値を追いにくい」（国内証券のアナリスト）との 声も聞かれた。 ＜１１：４５＞ 前場の日経平均は小反発、材料難で小動き続く 前場の東京株式市場で日経平均は、前営業日比４７円４９銭高の２万７９７８円０６ 銭と、小幅に反発した。日本株は朝方に底堅くスタートし、一進一退の展開が続いた。半 導体関連株がしっかりだった一方、グロース（成長）株が売られ、相場の重しとなった。 新規の材料難から明確な方向感はみられず、前場の値幅は１２０円ほどと、小動きとなっ た。 前日の米株市場では主要３指数が小幅に下落した。日本株市場は売り優勢でスタート するとみられていたものの、小高く始まった。半導体関連株がしっかりで、相場を下支え した。ただ、寄り付き後はもみ合う展開が続き、方向感のない値動きとなった。 一方、昨日の米市場で米長期金利が上昇したことを受けて、グロース株の一角では売 りが広がった。 市場では、足元のマーケットは材料不足との指摘が聞かれ、「１２月２日の米雇用統 計の発表に向けては、日経平均は２万７５００円から２万８１００円程度で、もみ合いが 続きそうだ」（野村証券の投資情報部投資情報二課・課長代理、神谷和男氏）との声が聞 かれた。 物色動向としては、米金利の高止まりを受けてグロース株が売られやすいものの、「 日本はコロナ禍からの経済正常化が遅れていたため、内需のバリュー株などは引き続き底 堅く推移しそうだ」（国内証券・ストラテジスト）という。 ＴＯＰＩＸは０．２９％高の１９７２．０７ポイントで午前の取引を終了。東証プラ イム市場の売買代金は１兆４８８２億４９００万円だった。東証３３業種では、保険業、 繊維業、輸送用機器など２６業種が値上がり。海運業、サービス業、陸運業など７業種は 値下がりした。 個別では、Ｓａｎｓａｎ、メルカリ、リクルートホールディングス などが軟調に推移した。 東京海上ホールディングス、ＭＳ＆ＡＤインシュアランスグループホールデ ィングスなど保険株はしっかりだった。 東証プライム市場の騰落数は、値上がりが１２１８銘柄（６６％）、値下がりが５１ ６銘柄（２８％）、変わらずが１０２銘柄（５％）だった。 ＜１０：５０＞ 日経平均は上げ幅縮小、グロース株売りが重し 日経平均は上げ幅を縮小し、前営業日比約４０円高の２万７９００円台後半で推移し ている。グロース（成長）株の売り圧力が強まっており、相場の重しとなっている。市場 では「米長期金利の上昇や米ハイテク株の軟調な動きに伴い、バリュー株優位で、グロー ス株が売られやすくなっている」（国内証券・ストラテジスト）との声が聞かれた。 個別では、ソフトバンクグループが３％安、リクルートホールディングス<6 098.T>が２％安となっている。 一方、相場全体では明確な方向感は乏しい。新規の材料難に加え、週末を控えている ことから、「きょうも小動きの展開が続きそうだ」（別の国内証券・ストラテジスト）と いう。 ＜０９：０５＞ 寄り付きの日経平均は反発、半導体関連株に買い 寄り付きの東京株式市場で日経平均は、前営業日比７９円２５銭高の２万８００９円 ８２銭と、小幅に反発してスタートした。その後はやや上げ幅を縮小している。昨日軟調 に推移していた半導体関連株に買いが入り、相場を支えている。一方、値がさ株や主力株 は小幅安となっている。 個別では、東京エレクトロン、アドバンテストが小幅高。半面、フ ァーストリテイリング、リクルートホールディングス、エムスリー<241 3.T>はさえない。 東証３３業種では、繊維業、倉庫・運輸関連業、電気・ガス業など２８業種が値上が り。サービス業、海運業、精密機器など４業種は値下がりしている。 ＜０８：２１＞ 寄り前の板状況、新電元は買い優勢 芝浦は売り優勢 東証プライム市場の寄り前の板状況では、買い優勢と売り優勢のそれぞれ上位銘柄群 は以下の通り。 買い優勢 銘柄名 騰落 MID 買気 売気 終値 率 気配 配 配 1 新電元工業 19% 3,90 3,90 3,90 3,29 0 0 0 0 2 朝日工業社 10% 2,06 2,06 2,06 1,87 1 0 1 7 3 セイコーグループ 6% 3,11 3,11 3,12 2,94 8 5 0 1 4 アトラエ 5% 1,58 1,58 1,58 1,50 0 0 0 1 5 北國フィナンシャルＨＬＤＧ <7 5% 4,57 4,57 4,58 4,35 381.T> 8 5 0 0 6 応用地質 5% 2,30 2,29 2,30 2,18 0 9 0 6 7 日本瓦斯 5% 2,20 2,19 2,20 2,09 0 9 0 7 8 レアジョブ 5% 900 899 900 859 9 福山通運 5% 3,59 3,59 3,60 3,44 8 5 0 0 10 ＤＴＳ 4% 3,49 3,49 3,50 3,35 8 5 0 0 売り優勢 銘柄名 騰落 MID 買気 売気 終値 率 気配 配 配 1 芝浦メカトロニクス -23% 8,70 8,70 8,70 11,3 0 0 0 20 2 東洋建設 -15% 701 700 701 824 3 野村マイクロ・サイエンス <625 -15% 4,02 4,02 4,03 4,72 4.T> 8 5 0 5 4 山九 -14% 4,18 4,18 4,18 4,85 3 0 5 0 5 ＫＯＡ -6% 2,11 2,11 2,11 2,25 1 0 1 2 6 ネクソン -6% 2,62 2,62 2,62 2,79 1 0 1 2 7 カナミックネットワーク <3939. -6% 621 620 621 661 T> 8 アズワン -5% 6,13 6,13 6,14 6,46 5 0 0 0 9 スタンレー電気 -5% 2,58 2,58 2,58 2,71 9 9 9 6 10 日本ペイントＨＬＤＧ -4% 1,06 1,06 1,06 1,11 3 3 3 3 (
Column: If inflation continues for a long time, the FF rate will be in the 5% range, but the investment environment will change dramatically = Norihiro Fujito | Reuters
[Tokyo 12th]- The risk of a prolonged period of high global inflation seems to be increasing. “OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) Plus” has decided to cut production by 2 million barrels per day from November, but the scale of the cut is the largest since the 2020 coronavirus shock.
Already in August, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Abdul Aziz said, “The extreme volatility and lack of liquidity in the crude oil futures market is causing crude oil prices to deviate further from fundamentals,” and said, “OPEC+ is taking action to cut production. It may be taken,” he warned. It has materialized.
What is important is that OPEC+ is willing to cut production even further to maintain crude oil prices in the event that demand for crude oil slows down due to a slowdown or recession in the global economy. In the background, it seems that the financial situation of oil-producing countries in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, is deeply involved.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Saudi Arabia’s financial balance is estimated at $79.2 per barrel, and other Middle Eastern oil-producing countries are in a similar situation. In other words, a drop below $80 per barrel would have a direct impact on the finances of the oil-producing countries in the Gulf, and it seems that they were aware of this as a line to be defended.
Saudi Arabia’s early-developed oil fields often have very low extraction costs. Despite this low mining cost and huge production volume of oil revenue, the fiscal equilibrium point is $79.2 per barrel. This is because we continue to invest in In addition to infrastructure investment such as the large-scale renovation of King Abdul Aziz Airport and the only high-speed railway in the Middle East connecting Mecca and Medina, the country is also pushing forward with the construction of a huge oil refining and petrochemical complex.
Among them, the “straight high-rise smart city NEOM” under construction in the northwestern desert is a magnificent future city with a width of 200 meters, a height of 500 meters (above sea level), and a total length of 170 kilometers, and is expected to house 9 million people. . It is a huge project that can be said to be a modern version of the Great Wall of China, but the total construction cost is about 500 billion dollars (about 73 trillion yen), and a huge amount of oil revenue is being generously invested.
Saudi Arabia’s intervention in the Yemeni civil war has also led to a sharp increase in defense spending. Saudi Arabia and the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have been engaged in a proxy war, but since April this year, a ceasefire has been realized through the mediation of the United Nations.
However, the United Nations announced on October 2 that it had not reached an agreement to extend the ceasefire, raising tensions again. In the past, the Houthi rebels used drones and missiles to attack oil-related facilities and pipelines in Saudi Arabia.
In other words, behind Saudi Arabia’s fiscal equilibrium point of $79.2 a barrel, there is such a huge amount of spending. As for future crude oil prices, we should assume that the lower limit will be $80 per barrel.
WTI crude oil futures prices fell to a low of $76.2 per barrel on September 26 against the backdrop of global demand decline expectations. The North Sea Brent futures price, which is the benchmark for world crude oil prices, was also close to 80 dollars at 83.6 dollars on the same day. However, following the announcement of the production cut by OPEC Plus, on October 10, WTI prices rallied to $93.6/bbl and North Sea Brent prices rallied to $98.7/bbl.
Retail gasoline prices in the US are also showing signs of rebounding after bottoming out. The average price of regular gasoline (national basis) announced by the National Automobile Association hit a record high of $5.016 per gallon (3.785 liters) on June 13, but crude oil prices have fallen since then. It has drawn a downward trend in conjunction with the reversal trend. It fell to a low of $3.674 on Sept. 19, down 26.8% from its peak. After that, however, it began a slow rise, rebounding 6.8% to $3.923 on Oct. 10.
In addition to the rebound from the bottoming out of crude oil and gasoline prices, Russia’s suspension of natural gas supply to Europe has caused natural gas prices to rise not only in Europe but also worldwide. With the winter demand season approaching, there are fears that natural gas and heating oil will rise further, and energy prices are expected to continue to soar. It is highly likely that upward pressure on prices will be prolonged.
Another important factor is the continuing pattern of ‘wage inflation’, which is directly linked to broad-based service price hikes. The September US employment report showed that the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, the lowest level in 50 years, and the average hourly wage increased by 5.0% from the previous year. The average weekly working hours also remained at a high level of 34.5 hours.
As a result, housing costs, which account for the largest weight in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) statistics, continue to soar, and transportation costs, medical costs, and prices related to personal services also continue to rise. In other words, it will take a long time to reach the 2% target set by the US Federal Reserve Board (FRB) not only for the CPI, which reflects trends in energy prices, but also for the core CPI.
In response, the Fed has signaled a continuation of its strong tightening policy. The lectures by the newly appointed directors Jefferson and Cook drew attention, and the phrase common to both directors was “raising and continuing to the policy interest rate level that suppresses the economy.” It is likely that the wording was elaborated as a unified view within the Fed.
In addition, Chicago Fed President Evans said, “The policy rate will reach 4.5% to 4.75% by the spring of 2023,” and New York Fed President Williams said, “The policy rate will eventually rise to around 4.5%.” , referring to more specific figures.
Federal funds rate (short-term policy interest rate) futures are certain to raise rates by 0.75% in November and 0.5% in December, and the implied overnight rate will peak at 4.673 in March next year. % and the remarks of both parties are incorporated (as of October 11). However, as mentioned above, if high inflation persists for longer than expected, the Fed should be prepared for a risk scenario of 5% or even more than the policy rate.
There is still hope on Wall Street that the Fed will loosen its reins if the market shakes. However, Fed Governor Waller expressed his strong determination to “prioritize the fight against inflation even if there is turmoil in the financial markets,” and St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Bullard said, “The market correctly interpreted the Fed’s message of continuing rate hikes. I do,” he said calmly. Asset price fluctuations of this magnitude are expected.
Led by Chairman Powell, the FRB is expected to quietly implement a large interest rate hike and a monthly QT (balance sheet reduction) of $950 in order to curb high inflation, which is its most important proposition.
Even in my long experience with the market, this is the first time since the second oil crisis in 1979 that the Fed and other central banks have continued to implement strong tightening measures despite being aware of the risk of recession.
Volcker, then chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, launched a policy interest rate of 20%, a “strong move,” but it took about four years for the US economy, prices, and stock prices to return to normal after 1983. there is I don’t mean to say that this time will also take a similar amount of time, but at least while the Fed continues to raise interest rates, we should be aware that naive “wishful thinking” may directly lead to a deterioration in performance.
If the market was in a super-excessive liquidity market like last year to the beginning of this year, the bullish stance of following the trend could have produced results. However, now that central banks around the world are under strong tightening policies, it seems clear that investment money will shrink. Moreover, if there are concerns about the risk of a global economic slowdown or recession, it is highly unlikely that the market will function as a “momentum play.”
In other words, we believe that it will be difficult to achieve good performance in the stock market unless we aim to be contrarian and dip-buying based on the direction of the central bank’s monetary policy and basic macro and micro analysis. The investment environment has changed dramatically from last year, and it will be important to take a cautious stance in response to this change.
Editing: Kazuhiko Tamaki
*This column isReuters Forex ForumThis is the content posted on It is based on the author’s personal opinion.
*Mr. Norihiro Fujito is an Executive Counselor and Chief Investment Strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. Graduated from Waseda University in 1979. Joined Kokusai Securities in 1999. After that, he worked in the investment information department at Mitsubishi Securities, Mitsubishi UFJ Securities, and Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. Incumbent since July 2018. Prior to joining KOKUSAI SECURITIES, he spent nearly 20 years in the asset management business at a life insurance company, where he worked as a fund manager, portfolio manager of pension funds, and in charge of planning. He has a reputation for persuasive analysis from a buy-side perspective.
*Content such as news, trading prices, data and other information in this document is provided by columnists for your personal use only and not for commercial purposes. There is none. The content of this document is not intended to solicit or induce investment activity, nor is it appropriate to use the content for the purpose of making a trading or buying or selling decision. This content does not provide any investment, tax, legal, etc. advice that constitutes investment advice, nor does it make any recommendations regarding specific financial stocks, financial investments, or financial products. Use of this document does not replace the investment advice of a qualified investment professional. Although Reuters makes reasonable efforts to ensure the reliability of the content, any views or opinions provided by a columnist are those of the columnist and not those of Reuters.
Nidec shares plummet, commenting that “it is not a news report that the acquisition of own shares is inappropriate” | Reuters
[Tokyo 11th Reuters]- Nidec shares plummeted. It fell to 8.9% at one point, renewing the lowest price since the beginning of the year. At the time of the previous closing, it ranked 8th in the rate of decline in the Tokyo Stock Exchange prime market.
A strategist at a domestic securities firm said that the market “seems to have become disgusted with the rise in US interest rates and the fall in US stock prices, as well as the reports of suspicions about share buybacks.” Toyo Keizai Online reported on the 7th.
Nidec issued a statement on the 11th, saying, “There were reports that there was a suspicion that the acquisition of treasury stock was being handled inappropriately, but it is absolutely not true.” “We are considering taking legal action against the news organization,” he said.
Stocks look like this: Essential risk-off begins = Tokai Tokyo Research Center Mr. Nakamura | Reuters
[Tokyo 11th Reuters]-
Japanese stocks are in a tough situation after the consecutive holidays, but the impression is strong that the nuance is different from the phases of sharp declines so far. Until now, there were many patterns of lowering led by futures, but today there are many movements that seem to be mass selling of spot. This is symbolized by the sharp drop in the Sony Group, one of Japan’s leading stocks and one of the core portfolios of domestic and foreign institutional investors.
Until then, the main negative factor was the fear of a tightening of the US monetary policy. The shift from a reversed financial market to a reversed performance market became clear, and a large amount of actual demand was sold. In that sense, it seems that a fundamental risk-off based on stock performance evaluation has begun.
The saving grace for Japanese stocks is that the economic resumption has only just begun to be factored into stock prices, due to the delay in the global economic restart. Amid concerns about a global recession, the point in reading Japanese stocks is how much domestic demand stocks will support them.