Dollar Forecast 2026: Experts Predict a Volatile Year Ahead
The value of the dollar is once again dominating economic discussions, particularly as macroeconomic adjustments and shifts in exchange rate policies take hold. Investors and savers alike are keenly focused on anticipating the trajectory of the US bill in the coming months. But what do the experts say? A recent analysis of forecasts from leading economists and financial institutions reveals a surprisingly wide range of predictions, with some significantly diverging from official government estimates.
Decoding the Forecasts: Who Got 2025 Right?
To gauge the reliability of 2026 projections, FocusEconomics evaluated the accuracy of forecasts made at the end of 2024 for the wholesale dollar’s value at the close of 2025. The actual closing value in December 2025 was $1,455. The consensus among over 40 economists surveyed by FocusEconomics predicted $1,403 – a remarkably close estimate. However, a select few firms demonstrated even greater precision.
BBVA Research ($1,457), Credicorp Capital ($1,450), Itau Unibanco ($1,450), Invecq Consulting ($1,450), MAPFRE Economics ($1,440), and Oxford Economics ($1,440) all came within a few pesos of the actual value. Notably, MAPFRE Economics stood out, accurately predicting the wholesale exchange rate for both 2024 and 2025 – a two-year streak of top-tier accuracy.
2026 Projections: A Wide Spectrum of Estimates
For 2026, MAPFRE Economics presents the most bullish outlook, projecting a wholesale dollar of $2,141 by December – a substantial 47% increase over the current rate. This projection significantly exceeds the average inflation expectation of 24% for the same period. Beyond MAPFRE, predictions vary considerably. Oxford Economics anticipates $2,020, while Invecq Consulting forecasts $2,000. BBVA Research estimates $1,720, with Itau Unibanco at $1,700 and Credicorp Capital at $1,590.
The Consensus View vs. Government Budget
Despite the divergence among top-performing firms, the overall consensus of the 40 economists surveyed by FocusEconomics points to a wholesale exchange rate of $1,734 by the end of December. This contrasts sharply with the Budget 2026 approved by Congress, which anticipates a significantly lower rate of $1,423. This discrepancy highlights a fundamental tension between private sector analysis and government projections, potentially signaling differing assumptions about economic policy and future performance.
Implications for Investors and Savers
This wide range of dollar forecasts underscores the inherent uncertainty in predicting exchange rate movements. The substantial difference between the most optimistic (MAPFRE Economics) and more conservative estimates suggests a period of potential volatility. For investors, this means carefully considering risk tolerance and diversifying portfolios. Savers should be aware that the purchasing power of their holdings could be significantly impacted by exchange rate fluctuations. Understanding these projections, and the firms behind them, is crucial for informed financial decision-making.
The accuracy of firms like MAPFRE Economics in recent years suggests their models are worth close attention, but it’s vital to remember that even the most sophisticated forecasts are not guarantees. Monitoring economic indicators, geopolitical events, and policy changes will be essential throughout 2026 to navigate this complex landscape.
What are your predictions for the dollar’s performance in 2026? Share your thoughts in the comments below!