Indian equity markets are bracing for a week of potential volatility, shaped by a confluence of factors including the fallout from a recent Supreme Court verdict on US tariffs, fluctuating global oil prices amid heightened US-Iran tensions, the release of Q3 FY26 GDP figures, and the monthly F&O expiry. Experts predict a rangebound market, with the Nifty 50 needing to decisively surpass and sustain the 26,000 mark to signal a stronger upward trend.

The week’s direction will be heavily influenced by developments surrounding the India-US trade relationship, particularly in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision regarding tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. The US recently increased its global import levies to 15% from 10% after the Supreme Court struck down earlier tariffs, prompting a reassessment of the interim trade deal between the two nations as reported by CNBC. India’s trade negotiators have postponed a planned visit to Washington D.C. To evaluate the implications of these changes.

Adding to the complexity, geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran continue to exert pressure on global oil prices. The US has been critical of India’s continued import of discounted Russian crude oil, arguing it undermines Western sanctions and funds Russia’s war in Ukraine according to the Indian Express. This situation has led to a 25% reciprocal tariff on Indian exports, initially expected to be reduced to 18% under the proposed trade deal.

Economic Data and Market Volatility

Beyond trade and geopolitics, the Indian economy will be closely watched for the release of Q3 FY26 GDP numbers. This data will provide a crucial snapshot of the country’s economic performance and could significantly impact investor sentiment. The monthly F&O expiry is expected to contribute to market volatility, as traders adjust their positions.

The US economic calendar also plays a role, with weekly US jobs data anticipated to influence global market trends. Investor sentiment will also be sensitive to the mood of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), whose activity can have a substantial impact on Indian equity markets.

Trump’s Trade Policies and India’s Response

The current trade tensions stem from early 2025, when the Trump administration initiated a series of tariffs under “reciprocal tariff” policies aimed at reducing the US trade deficit. Though, the primary catalyst for punitive duties on Indian exports was New Delhi’s continued purchase of discounted Russian crude oil as detailed in the Indian Express timeline. Despite numerous rounds of negotiations throughout 2025, disagreements persisted, with Trump repeatedly warning of further tariff increases unless India curtailed its Russian oil imports.

Interestingly, despite the 50% tariffs imposed by the US, India’s goods exports to the US rose by 14.5% in October 2025, marking the first increase in five months. This was partially attributed to agreements for India’s state-run oil firms to import more liquified petroleum gas (LPG) from the US and exemptions for certain farm goods according to the BBC. However, overall exports still experienced a decline, highlighting the complex impact of the tariffs.

Recent Developments in the India-US Trade Deal

In early February 2026, President Trump announced a new trade deal with India, stating that New Delhi had agreed to curb its purchases of Russian oil and increase energy imports from the United States and potentially Venezuela as reported by the New York Times. The details of this agreement remain somewhat sparse, but it represents a potential turning point in the trade dispute.

the US plans to impose an extra 25% tariff on trade with Iran, which could further impact India, a major importer of Iranian organic chemicals worth $512.92 million in 2024 according to Business Standard.

Looking ahead, the market will be closely monitoring further updates regarding the India-US trade deal, developments in the US-Iran situation, and fluctuations in oil prices. The outcome of these factors will likely determine the trajectory of Indian equity markets in the coming weeks.

Stay informed about these crucial developments and their impact on your investments. Share your thoughts and analysis in the comments below.

Gurugram’s rental market is experiencing robust demand, but a significant gap between what renters seek and what’s available is emerging, according to recent data. Even as demand is concentrated in the more affordable segments, the supply of rental properties is skewed towards higher price points, creating a challenge for those seeking budget-friendly housing in the Millennium City.

The dynamics of Gurugram’s rental landscape are increasingly shaped by affordability. Approximately 44 percent of rental inquiries are for properties in the ₹10,000 to ₹20,000 per month range, indicating a strong preference for reasonably priced accommodation. Yet, the available supply doesn’t align with this demand. Data reveals that 36 percent of rental listings are priced between ₹50,000 and ₹1 lakh per month, highlighting a mismatch that could constrain market growth and impact housing accessibility.

Demand Concentrated in Affordable Ranges

The concentration of demand in the lower rental brackets suggests a significant segment of the population – including students, young professionals and those new to the city – are prioritizing cost-effectiveness. This demand is likely fueled by Gurugram’s status as a major employment hub, attracting a steady influx of people seeking job opportunities. The city’s proximity to Delhi also contributes to the demand, as individuals may opt for more affordable housing in Gurugram while commuting to the capital for work. Understanding these rental trends is crucial for investors and policymakers alike, as they navigate the evolving real estate market.

Supply Skews Towards Premium Properties

The disproportionate supply of higher-priced rentals points to a trend of developers focusing on premium housing options. This could be driven by higher potential returns on investment in the luxury segment, or a perception that demand for high-conclude properties will continue to grow. However, the current data suggests this strategy may not fully align with the broader market needs. The imbalance between supply and demand in different price segments could lead to longer vacancy rates for higher-priced properties, while intensifying competition for affordable rentals. According to Magicbricks, a 3BHK flat in areas like DLF Phase 1–5 and Cyber City can range from ₹40,000 to ₹70,000+ per month as of September 2025.

Broader Cost of Living Considerations

Rental costs are just one component of the overall cost of living in Gurugram. Other significant expenses include utilities, groceries, transportation, and education. 99acres.com estimates that utilities can range from ₹4,000 to ₹6,000 per month, while groceries can cost between ₹8,000 and ₹12,000. Transportation expenses are estimated at ₹4,000 to ₹6,000 monthly. For families with children, education costs can be substantial, ranging from ₹20,000 to ₹50,000 per month depending on the school. These factors collectively contribute to the high cost of living in Gurugram, impacting affordability for many residents.

The cost of living in Gurugram is also influenced by lifestyle choices. Dining out and entertainment can add significantly to monthly expenses, with estimates ranging from ₹15,000 to ₹20,000, as noted by 99acres.com.

What to Expect Next

The Gurugram rental market is likely to remain dynamic in the coming months, with affordability continuing to be a key driver. Monitoring the interplay between demand and supply across different price segments will be crucial for understanding future trends. Further development of affordable housing options could help address the current imbalance and improve accessibility for a wider range of residents. The impact of economic growth and employment trends in Gurugram will also play a significant role in shaping the rental market’s trajectory.

What are your thoughts on the Gurugram rental market? Share your experiences and insights in the comments below.