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Broadway Pushback Shuts Down Jay-Z Backed Times Square Casino Plan

by Marina Collins - Entertainment Editor
written by Marina Collins - Entertainment Editor



Times Square casino plan Falls Through After Broadway Opposition

Table of Contents

New York – A highly anticipated plan to construct a Caesars palace casino in the heart of Times Square has been rejected by a state-commissioned advisory committee. The proposed $5.4 billion development, which had the backing of music mogul Jay-Z and his entertainment company Roc Nation, encountered notable resistance from the Broadway theater community, who voiced concerns about its potential impact on the famed Theater District.

The Decision and Initial Reactions

The community advisory committee voted against the project on Wednesday, following public hearings where representatives from the Broadway League, actors’ unions, and local business owners argued against the casino’s approval. Marc Holliday, CEO of SL Green, the project’s primary developer, sharply criticized the decision, labeling it a display of “cowardice” and a disregard for the potential benefits the casino could have brought.

The Core of the Dispute: Broadway’s Concerns

The central argument against the casino revolved around its potential to disrupt the delicate ecosystem of the Theater District, which is still recovering from the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Broadway stakeholders feared that the influx of casino visitors would detract from theater attendance and negatively impact surrounding businesses. They posited that a casino would draw patrons away from shows and restaurants, jeopardizing the district’s unique cultural identity.

Competing Voices and Potential Economic Benefits

Despite the objections, supporters of the casino project argued that it would generate new jobs and stimulate economic growth in the area. Matt Goldman, co-founder of the Blue Man Group, stated that increased tourism and gaming activity would benefit local restaurants and theaters.Reverend Al Sharpton, a prominent supporter, criticized the decision, claiming it represented a continuation of past exclusion and the preservation of white control within Times Square’s entertainment sector, noting the planned inclusion of a civil rights museum within the casino complex.

Jay-Z’s Vision and the Broader Casino Landscape

jay-Z,in a recent statement,had emphasized that a world-class casino would complement,not compete with,existing businesses in the area. He envisioned the casino attracting a wider range of visitors who would also patronize theaters, restaurants, and hotels. However, his vision failed to sway the committee.

Other Casino Proposals in New York City

The Times Square project was one of several casino proposals vying for a limited number of licenses to be awarded by the state Gaming Commission in December. Other proposals include developments on Manhattan’s West Side, near the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center, and on the East Side, near the United Nations headquarters. A Bally’s casino proposed for a public golf course in the Bronx, formerly operated by Donald Trump, is also under consideration, as are projects in Coney Island and Queens.

Casino Proposal Location Key Backers
Caesars Palace Times Square, Manhattan Jay-Z’s Roc Nation, SL Green
Avenir hudson Yards, Manhattan N/A (Rejected)
bally’s Bronx Bally’s Corporation

Did You Know? New York voters authorized up to seven full casinos in the state in 2013, but only four have opened so far, all located upstate.

Pro Tip: Understanding the local political landscape and community concerns is crucial for accomplished large-scale development projects.

What factors do you think are most vital when considering a casino development in a major city? How might a casino impact the cultural landscape of an area like Times Square?

The Future of Gambling in New York

This decision underscores the complex considerations involved in expanding gambling within densely populated urban areas. The state Gaming Commission now faces the challenge of balancing economic development with the concerns of local communities.The outcome of the remaining license applications will likely shape the future of the gaming industry in New York City for years to come. This situation reflects a broader national debate about the social and economic impacts of casinos, notably in areas reliant on tourism and entertainment.

Frequently asked Questions About the Times Square Casino

  • What was the main reason the Times Square casino was rejected? The project faced strong opposition from the broadway theater community, who feared its negative impact on the Theater District.
  • Who backed the proposed Caesars Palace casino? The project was backed by Jay-Z’s Roc Nation and SL Green, a real estate developer.
  • What other casino proposals are being considered in New York City? Proposals are under consideration for Manhattan’s West and East Sides, the Bronx, Coney Island, and Queens.
  • How manny casino licenses will New York State award? The state plans to award up to three licenses for casinos in the New York City area.
  • What impact could the casino have had on the local economy? Supporters argued it would create jobs and boost tourism, while opponents feared it would divert business from existing establishments.

Share your thoughts on this story and let us know what you think about the future of casinos in New York City. Leave a comment below!


What specific concerns did The Broadway League raise regarding the proposed Times Square casino?

Broadway Pushback Shuts Down Jay-Z Backed Times Square Casino Plan

The Collapse of the Times Square Casino Project

The enterprising plan to construct a casino in the heart of Times Square,spearheaded by Jay-Z (Shawn Carter) and SL Green Realty,has officially been abandoned. Intense opposition from the Broadway theater community,local residents,and city officials proved insurmountable,effectively halting the project’s progress. This marks a notable defeat for the proponents of expanded gambling in New York City and a victory for those prioritizing the cultural and residential character of the iconic district. the proposed casino, initially touted as a major economic driver, faced escalating scrutiny over its potential impact on traffic, quality of life, and the unique atmosphere of the Theater District.

Key Factors Driving the Opposition

Several interconnected factors contributed to the widespread resistance against the Times Square casino. Understanding these is crucial to grasping the full scope of the situation:

* Broadway’s Concerns: The Broadway League, representing theater owners and producers, voiced strong objections. Their primary argument centered on the potential for increased congestion, disruption to show schedules, and a negative impact on the overall theatergoing experience. they feared the casino would overshadow the cultural importance of Broadway.

* Community Board Resistance: Manhattan Community Board 4, representing the Times Square area, overwhelmingly rejected the proposal. Residents expressed concerns about increased crime, noise pollution, and the potential for the casino to exacerbate existing issues related to tourism and overcrowding.

* Political Opposition: Numerous city council members publicly opposed the casino, citing similar concerns to those raised by the community board and broadway League. The lack of significant political support proved fatal to the project.

* Traffic and Infrastructure: Times Square is already one of the most congested areas in New York City. Opponents argued that a large-scale casino would further strain the already overburdened transportation infrastructure.

* Economic Impact Debate: While proponents emphasized potential job creation and tax revenue, critics questioned the long-term economic benefits, suggesting the casino could cannibalize existing businesses and attract undesirable elements.

The Role of Jay-Z and SL Green

Shawn “Jay-Z” Carter’s involvement brought significant attention to the project. His Roc Nation entertainment company was a key partner in the bid, aiming to create a culturally relevant casino experience. SL Green Realty, one of New York City’s largest commercial landlords, owned the properties earmarked for the casino and spearheaded the financial aspects of the development. Despite their combined influence and resources, they were unable to overcome the mounting opposition. The partnership initially presented a compelling vision, promising a state-of-the-art entertainment complex, but ultimately failed to address the core concerns of stakeholders.

Timeline of the Casino Proposal & Its Demise

Here’s a brief timeline outlining the key events leading to the project’s collapse:

  1. early 2023: SL Green announces its intention to pursue a casino license for a Times Square location.
  2. Mid-2023: Jay-Z’s Roc Nation joins the project as an equity partner.
  3. Late 2023: Public hearings and community meetings begin, revealing significant opposition.
  4. Early 2024: The Broadway League formally expresses its concerns to state regulators.
  5. Mid-2024: Manhattan Community Board 4 votes overwhelmingly against the proposal.
  6. September 17, 2025: SL green and Roc Nation officially announce the withdrawal of their casino request.

Implications for New York’s Casino Expansion

The failure of the Times square casino bid has broader implications for New York’s ongoing efforts to expand casino gambling. The state is currently awarding licenses for up to three downstate casinos. This setback raises questions about the viability of other proposed projects and underscores the importance of community engagement and addressing local concerns. Other contenders for casino licenses include projects in Queens and Long Island. The Times Square case serves as a cautionary tale, demonstrating that even well-funded and high-profile proposals can falter in the face of determined opposition.

What’s Next for Times Square?

With the casino plan off the table, the future of the proposed development sites remains uncertain. SL Green will likely explore option uses for the properties, possibly focusing on office space, retail, or entertainment venues that align more closely with the existing character of Times Square. The Broadway community will likely advocate for investments in infrastructure and public spaces to enhance the theatergoing experience and improve the overall quality of life in the district. The focus will shift towards revitalizing Times Square as a premier cultural destination, rather than a gambling hub.

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Entertainment

**Motivations Behind Young People’s Attraction to Gambling and Drug Use: Navigating Survival rather than Pleasure**

by Marina Collins - Entertainment Editor
written by Marina Collins - Entertainment Editor


<a href="https://www.weforum.org/stories/2025/08/youth-priorities-global-shapers-annual-summit/" title="5 pathways towards an optimistic future, according to today's youth">Youth</a> Turn to Risky Behaviors Amidst Societal Pressures,Experts Say

A recent discussion highlighted a concerning trend: an increasing number of young individuals are grappling with gambling and drug addiction as coping mechanisms. Experts suggest that underlying causes extend beyond mere recreational choices, linking these behaviors to deep-seated emotional distress and societal expectations.

The Pressure to Perform and the Rise of escape

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Contemporary society often defines success thru narrow parameters-academic achievement, physical appearance, and financial stability. Young people who fall outside these prescribed norms can experience profound feelings of inadequacy and isolation. This can lead them to seek escape through destructive behaviors.

According to a 2024 study by the national Institute on drug Abuse, rates of adolescent substance use increased by 15% following the COVID-19 pandemic, signaling an exacerbation of existing mental health vulnerabilities. The pressure to succeed,coupled with a fear of failure,can be overwhelming for developing minds.

The Developing Brain and Impulsive behaviors

The adolescent brain is still undergoing crucial growth, notably in the frontal lobe, which is responsible for impulse control and emotional regulation. This neurological immaturity makes young people particularly susceptible to impulsive decisions and difficulty managing intense emotions. When faced with depression, anxiety, or anger, they may turn to substances or gambling as a means of immediate relief.

Drugs can temporarily suppress unpleasant feelings,while gambling offers a distracting immersion that allows them to momentarily forget their worries. However, these are ultimately maladaptive coping mechanisms that perpetuate a cycle of dependence. This behavior becomes more appealing when future prospects seem bleak due to repeated setbacks and a lack of positive reinforcement.

The Role of isolation and Accessibility

Manny young people struggle to communicate their emotions effectively to family, teachers, or friends, leading to feelings of isolation. The belief that sharing their struggles is futile further exacerbates this isolation,making them more vulnerable to self-destructive behaviors.

Historically, strong social taboos surrounding drug use and gambling acted as deterrents. However, the proliferation of online platforms and targeted advertising have normalized these activities, presenting them as readily available options. Algorithms curate content that exposes young people to gambling and drug-related material, eroding customary safeguards.

From Condemnation to Compassion: A New Approach

Experts emphasize a need for a paradigm shift in how society addresses these issues. Rather of simply condemning these behaviors, it’s crucial to understand the underlying pain and provide young people with safe spaces to process their emotions and build meaningful connections.

This requires creating environments where young people feel recognized, valued, and supported, regardless of their achievements or shortcomings. It also means investing in mental health resources and promoting emotional literacy in schools and communities.

Risk Factor Protective Factor
societal Pressure Strong Social Support Network
Emotional Isolation Open Interaction with Trusted Adults
Neurological Immaturity Emotional Regulation Skills Training
Accessibility of Harmful Activities Increased Awareness and Prevention Programs

Did You Know? Studies show that early intervention and access to mental health services can significantly reduce the risk of substance abuse and gambling addiction among young people.

pro tip: If you or someone you know is struggling with gambling or drug addiction, reach out for help. The National Helpline offers confidential support 24/7 at 1-800-662-HELP (4357).

Long-term Implications and Future Outlook

Addressing youth addiction isn’t just a matter of individual well-being; it has far-reaching consequences for society as a whole. Untreated addiction can lead to increased crime rates, healthcare costs, and lost productivity.Investing in preventative measures and comprehensive support systems is therefore a crucial investment in the future.

Furthermore, as technology continues to evolve, it’s essential to stay ahead of emerging risks, such as online gambling platforms and the promotion of addictive behaviors through social media. Ongoing research and collaboration between educators, policymakers, and mental health professionals are vital.

Frequently Asked Questions

  • What is driving the increase in youth gambling? The accessibility of online platforms and aggressive marketing tactics play a significant role.
  • How does societal pressure contribute to drug use in young people? The pressure to conform to narrow standards of success can lead to feelings of inadequacy and a desire to escape.
  • What can parents do to support their children’s mental health? encourage open communication, provide unconditional support, and seek professional help when needed.
  • Are there resources available for young people struggling with addiction? Yes, organizations like the National Helpline and local mental health centers offer confidential support and treatment options.
  • what role do schools play in preventing youth addiction? Schools can implement prevention programs, promote emotional literacy, and provide access to mental health services.

What steps can communities take to better support young people facing these challenges? Share your thoughts in the comments below.


How can understanding the link between adverse childhood experiences and “survival mode” responses inform more effective prevention and intervention strategies for youth gambling and substance abuse?

Motivations Behind Young People’s Attraction to Gambling and Drug use: Navigating Survival rather than Pleasure

The Shifting Landscape of Adolescent Coping Mechanisms

For decades,discussions around youth gambling and substance abuse often centered on thrill-seeking and rebellion. However, a growing body of research suggests a more nuanced reality: for many young people, these behaviors aren’t about pleasure, but about survival. This isn’t to excuse harmful behaviors,but to understand the underlying drivers and develop more effective intervention strategies. We’re seeing a rise in adolescent addiction linked to complex trauma and socio-economic pressures.

Understanding the “Survival Mode” Response

the human brain, particularly during adolescence, is highly sensitive to stress. When faced with overwhelming challenges – childhood trauma, family dysfunction, economic hardship, social isolation – young people may enter a “survival mode.” This mode prioritizes immediate relief over long-term consequences.

gambling can offer a temporary escape from financial worries, a perceived chance to “win” their way out of tough circumstances, or a feeling of control in a chaotic life. The dopamine rush, while fleeting, can be powerfully addictive.

Drug use similarly provides a temporary numbing effect, suppressing painful emotions and anxieties. It can also offer a sense of belonging within a peer group, particularly for those feeling marginalized. Teen drug abuse is often a symptom, not the core problem.

The Role of Adverse childhood Experiences (ACEs)

Adverse Childhood Experiences (aces) – including abuse, neglect, and household dysfunction – are strongly correlated with increased risk of both gambling addiction and drug addiction in young adulthood.

Here’s how ACEs contribute:

  1. Impaired Emotional Regulation: Trauma disrupts the development of healthy coping mechanisms, making individuals more vulnerable to impulsive behaviors.
  2. Increased Risk of Mental Health Issues: ACEs significantly raise the likelihood of depression, anxiety, and PTSD – all of which can fuel substance use and gambling as forms of self-medication.
  3. Distorted Beliefs: Trauma can lead to negative self-perception and a belief that the world is an unsafe place, increasing the appeal of risky behaviors.

Socioeconomic Factors and the Appeal of “Speedy Wins”

Beyond individual trauma, broader socioeconomic factors play a significant role. Poverty, lack of opportunity, and social inequality can create a sense of hopelessness and desperation.

Gambling is often marketed as a path to financial freedom, particularly in communities facing economic hardship. The allure of a “quick win” can be incredibly strong for those with limited options.

Drug dealing can, tragically, appear as a viable income source for young people lacking legitimate employment opportunities.This is particularly prevalent in areas with high unemployment rates and limited access to education.

The Impact of Social Media and online accessibility

The digital age has dramatically increased access to both online gambling and illegal drugs.

Social media normalizes risky behaviors and exposes young people to targeted advertising for gambling platforms.

Dark web marketplaces make it easier than ever to purchase drugs anonymously, removing some of the barriers to entry.

Online gaming with loot boxes and in-game purchases can act as a gateway to problem gambling, desensitizing young people to the risks involved.

Recognizing the Signs: Beyond the Obvious

Identifying young people at risk requires looking beyond overt signs of addiction. Pay attention to:

sudden changes in behavior: Withdrawal from friends and family, declining grades, loss of interest in hobbies.

Financial difficulties: Borrowing money,selling possessions,unexplained expenses.

Emotional distress: increased anxiety,depression,irritability,or hopelessness.

Secrecy and deception: Lying about activities, hiding belongings, or becoming defensive when questioned.

Increased risk-taking: Engaging in other impulsive or dangerous behaviors.

Benefits of early Intervention & Trauma-Informed

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Economy

Record-Breaking $30 Billion Expected in Legal Betting Among Americans in 2023

by Daniel Foster - Senior Editor, Economy
written by Daniel Foster - Senior Editor, Economy


Sports Betting Set for Record $30 Billion <a href="https://www.zhihu.com/question/376736713/answers/updated" title="如何评价Chinese Football 乐队？ - 知乎">NFL</a> Season as Crackdown on Illegal Operators Intensifies

The Collage Football season is Underway, and with the National Football League’s regular season slated to begin next week, Sportsbooks are bracing for a surge in activity and preparing to attract new customers. Industry analysts predict a record $30 billion will be wagered on the NFL this season through legal channels, an 8.5% increase from the previous year, according to estimates from the American Gaming Association.

Competition Heats Up in the Legal Sports Betting Market

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FanDuel, a subsidiary of Flutter, and DraftKings stand as dominant forces in the legal sports betting landscape. However, thay now face mounting competition from BetMGM and Caesars. The evolving market has even drawn interest from established financial institutions. Robinhood, the online brokerage, has partnered with Kalshi to introduce Football prediction markets, offering another avenue for fans to engage.

Despite the expansion of legal options,a notable threat remains from unlicensed offshore sportsbooks,including Bovada,MyBookie,and BetOnline. These entities operate outside the regulatory framework, posing risks to consumers and depriving states of vital tax revenue.

Legal Pressure Mounts on Unlicensed Operators

Authorities are escalating efforts to combat illegal gambling operations. The Los Angeles City Attorney recently filed a civil enforcement action against Stake.us and 20 affiliated companies, including Evolution. The lawsuit alleges illicit gambling practices and seeks to halt operations and provide refunds to affected players. Together, a coalition of 50 state attorneys general has urged the justice Department to strengthen enforcement against unlicensed gambling, citing an estimated $4 billion in lost tax revenue for states annually.

Data from GeoComply, a geolocation technology firm, reveals a clear correlation between active enforcement and market growth. States that proactively crack down on illegal offshore sportsbooks have experienced a 10% increase in active players year-over-year and a 38% surge in new player registrations in August.

Here’s a comparative look at key players in the US sports betting market:

Company Parent Company (If Applicable) Market Share (Approximate)
FanDuel Flutter ~40%
DraftKings N/A ~30%
betmgm MGM Resorts International ~15%
Caesars Caesars Entertainment ~10%

Did You Know? Geolocation technology plays a crucial role in ensuring that only individuals located within states where sports betting is legal can participate.

The ongoing legal battle against offshore sportsbooks and the increasing competition within the regulated market are poised to define the future of sports betting in the United States.

Pro Tip: Before placing any sports bet, always ensure the operator is licensed and regulated in your state to safeguard your funds and ensure fair play.

The Evolution of Sports Betting in the U.S.

The legalization of sports betting in the U.S. began in 2018 when the Supreme Court overturned the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA),allowing individual states to regulate sports wagering. As then, over 30 states have legalized some form of sports betting, creating a multi-billion dollar industry. The market continues to evolve,with new technologies,such as micro-betting and live streaming,enhancing the fan experience. The American Gaming Association projects continued growth in the sector, emphasizing responsible gambling as a key component of lasting growth.

Frequently Asked questions about Sports Betting

  • What is legal sports betting? Legal sports betting refers to wagering on sports events through licensed and regulated operators within states where it is permitted.
  • Why is offshore sports betting considered illegal? Offshore sportsbooks operate outside of U.S. regulations,offering no consumer protection and depriving states of tax revenue.
  • How does geolocation technology work in sports betting? Geolocation technology verifies a user’s location to ensure they are within a state where sports betting is legal before allowing them to place a bet.
  • What are the risks of using an unlicensed sportsbook? Unlicensed sportsbooks pose risks such as unreliable payouts, lack of data security, and potential for fraud.
  • What is the impact of sports betting on state revenues? Legalized sports betting generates significant tax revenue for states, which can be used to fund public services.
  • How is the NFL approaching sports betting? the NFL initially opposed sports betting but has since embraced it as a revenue opportunity, partnering with sportsbooks and integrating betting options into its broadcasts.
  • What are prediction markets? Prediction markets, like those offered by Robinhood and Kalshi, allow users to wager on the outcome of events, not just sports, functioning similarly to stock trading.

What are your thoughts on the increasing legalization of sports betting? Do you believe the crackdown on offshore operators will be effective?

Share your comments below!


What impact does state legalization have on the overall volume of sports betting wagers?

Record-Breaking $30 Billion Expected in Legal Betting Among Americans in 2023

The Surge in Legal Sports Betting: A National Trend

2023 witnessed an unprecedented boom in legal sports betting across the United States,with projections exceeding $30 billion wagered. This represents a notable leap from previous years, fueled by expanding legalization, increased accessibility, and growing mainstream acceptance of sports wagering. the rise of online sports betting platforms has been a key driver, allowing fans too place bets from the convenience of their homes. This surge isn’t just about football; betting on sports now encompasses a wide range of events, from basketball and baseball to soccer, hockey, and even niche sports like esports.

Key Factors Driving the Growth of Legal Betting

Several factors converged to create this record-breaking year for the US sports betting market:

State Legalization: More states than ever before legalized sports betting in 2023, opening up new markets and opportunities for operators.States like Ohio,Maryland,and Massachusetts launched their markets,contributing considerably to the overall volume.

Mobile Betting Expansion: the availability of mobile sports betting apps dramatically increased accessibility.Users can now easily place bets on their smartphones or tablets, anytime, anywhere within legal state boundaries.

Marketing and Partnerships: Aggressive marketing campaigns by sportsbooks, coupled with partnerships with major sports leagues and teams, have normalized sports betting and attracted new users.

Increased Media Coverage: Mainstream media outlets are providing more coverage of sports betting, further increasing awareness and acceptance.

Technological Advancements: Improved betting platforms and user interfaces have made the experience more seamless and enjoyable for bettors.

Breakdown of Betting Activity by Sport

While the NFL remains the most popular sport for betting, other leagues are seeing substantial growth. Here’s a look at the estimated breakdown of handle (total amount wagered) in 2023:

  1. NFL (National football League): 40-45% – Remains the dominant force in the sports betting industry.
  2. NBA (National Basketball Association): 20-25% – A strong performer, particularly during the playoffs.
  3. MLB (Major League Baseball): 10-15% – Gaining traction with daily fantasy sports integration.
  4. College Football: 8-12% – Popular in certain regions, but facing increased scrutiny regarding integrity.
  5. Other Sports (NHL, Soccer, Tennis, etc.): 10-15% – A diverse category with growing potential.

The Economic Impact of Legalized Sports Betting

The expansion of legal sports betting isn’t just benefiting sportsbooks; it’s also having a significant economic impact on states.

Tax Revenue: States are collecting substantial tax revenue from sports betting, which is being used to fund various public programs. Such as,New York generated over $700 million in tax revenue from sports betting in it’s first full year of operation.

Job Creation: The industry is creating jobs in areas such as technology, marketing, compliance, and customer service.

Increased Tourism: Sports betting can attract tourists to states with legal markets, boosting local economies.

Responsible Gaming Programs: Tax revenue is frequently enough allocated to fund responsible gambling initiatives and problem gambling treatment programs.

Regulatory Landscape and Challenges

Despite the growth, the legal sports betting landscape remains complex and fragmented. Each state has its own regulations,creating challenges for operators and bettors alike.

Varying Tax Rates: tax rates vary significantly from state to state, impacting profitability for sportsbooks.

geofencing Restrictions: Geofencing technology is used to ensure that bets are onyl placed from within legal state boundaries.

Data Integrity Concerns: Maintaining the integrity of sporting events is crucial to prevent fraud and manipulation.

Responsible Gambling: ensuring responsible gambling practices and providing support for problem gamblers is a top priority.

Federal Regulations: The potential for federal regulation remains a topic of discussion, which could standardize rules and regulations across the country.

The Future of Sports Betting: Trends to Watch

Looking ahead, several trends are expected to shape the future of the online gambling and sports betting industry:

Microbetting: Betting on very specific events within a game (e.g., the outcome of the next pitch in baseball) is gaining popularity.

Live Streaming Integration: Integrating live streaming of sporting events directly into betting apps will enhance the user experience.

Esports Betting: The market for esports betting is expected to continue to grow rapidly.

Artificial Intelligence (AI): AI is being used to personalize betting recommendations and detect fraudulent activity.

* Expansion into New Markets: More states are expected to legalize sports betting in the coming years, further expanding the market.

Case Study: New York’s Sports Betting success

New York’s launch of legal mobile sports betting in January

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Economy

The Rise of AI Model Betting: A New Era Beyond Fantasy Football

by Daniel Foster - Senior Editor, Economy
written by Daniel Foster - Senior Editor, Economy

AI Model Race Fuels New Betting Markets: Gemini Leads as Investors Wager on Future Dominance

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The world of artificial intelligence is now mirroring the excitement of traditional sports and political forecasting, as investors begin to wager on the performance of leading AI models. Forget fantasy football; a new form of competition has emerged: “fantasy machine learning,” where people are putting real money on the line to predict which AI will come out on top.

Platforms like Kalshi are at the forefront of this trend, offering individuals the opportunity to trade on the outcome of events ranging from celebrity weddings to major tech breakthroughs, including the ever-evolving AI landscape. Kalshi has reported a tenfold increase in trading volume related to AI models compared to the beginning of the year.

Gemini Currently Favored to Win the AI Race

As of Thursday morning, August 28th, 2025, Google’s Gemini is the frontrunner in the prediction markets. According to Kalshi, Gemini has a 58% probability of being crowned the “Best AI” by the end of 2025. OpenAI’s ChatGPT trails behind with 19%, while xAI’s Grok holds a 17% stake. Claude and Meta’s Llama are currently tied at 2%.

The total trading volume across these AI-focused markets has reached $8.1 million, indicating a notable and growing interest in predicting the future of AI. This reflects a broader trend of utilizing prediction markets to gauge the likelihood of future events, with investors seeking insights into which AI technologies are poised for success.

did You No? The concept of prediction markets dates back to the 1980s, but has gained traction recently due to increasing interest in forecasting complex events.

Other platforms joining Kalshi in this space include Polymarket, a crypto-based market accessible outside of the United States, Manifold Markets, and Metaculus.

Global Consensus: Google Leads in AI Development

The sentiment aligns globally. Polymarket data, available to international investors, also points to Google as the likely winner, assigning a 66% probability to Gemini’s success by year-end. OpenAI follows with 16%, and xAI with 14%.

The mechanics of these markets resemble traditional financial trading. Bettors purchase contracts tied to specific outcomes at prices ranging from a penny to 99 cents, with the potential to win $1 if their prediction proves correct. Contracts can also be sold before the outcome is determined, allowing investors to capitalize on fluctuating market sentiment.

Here’s a comparison of leading AI models based on current betting market probabilities:

AI Model Kalshi Probability (%) Polymarket probability (%)
Gemini 58 66
ChatGPT 19 16
Grok 17 14
Claude 2 –
Llama 2 –

Kalshi, regulated by the U.S.Commodity Futures Trading Commission, emphasizes clarity and accountability. Jack Such, a spokesperson for Kalshi, stated that the platform’s markets “serve as a source of truth on the likelihood of all events, including AI model progress.”

Pro Tip: Understanding the regulatory framework of these prediction markets is crucial to ensure a secure and legitimate investing experience.

what implications do these prediction markets hold for the future development of AI? Could they become a reliable indicator of technological advancement?

The Rise of Prediction Markets

Prediction markets aren’t new, they’ve been around for decades, but their popularity has surged in recent years. They’re based on the “wisdom of the crowd” principle, which suggests that the collective intelligence of a diverse group of individuals is often more accurate than that of a single expert. Initially used for political forecasting, they are now being applied to a broader range of fields, including technology, economics, and even scientific research. The accuracy of these markets has impressed many,frequently enough outperforming traditional polling and expert opinions.

Frequently Asked Questions About AI Betting Markets


share your thoughts on the future of AI and the role of prediction markets in the comments below!

What are the key differences between betting on an AI model’s prediction and traditional sports betting?

The Rise of AI Model Betting: A New Era Beyond Fantasy Football

What is AI Model Betting?

Forget painstakingly analyzing stats and gut feelings.AI model betting represents a paradigm shift in predictive wagering, extending far beyond traditional fantasy sports and sports betting. It involves leveraging the power of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) to predict outcomes in a diverse range of events – from financial markets to political elections, even esports. Instead of betting on a team, you’re betting on the accuracy of an AI’s prediction.

This isn’t simply automated betting; it’s about investing in the intelligence itself. Platforms are emerging that allow users to “stake” on the performance of different AI models, creating a new asset class centered around predictive accuracy. Think of it as algorithmic trading meets prediction markets.

How Does it Differ From Traditional Betting?

The core difference lies in the object of the wager. Here’s a breakdown:

Traditional Sports Betting: you bet on the outcome of an event (e.g., the Lakers winning).

Fantasy Sports: You build a virtual team and score points based on real-world player performance.

AI Model Betting: You bet on whether an AI model will correctly predict the outcome of an event.The AI is the product.

This distinction is crucial. traditional betting relies on your understanding of the game and players. Fantasy sports require roster management and strategic thinking. AI-driven predictions rely on the sophistication of the algorithm, the quality of the data it’s trained on, and its ability to identify patterns humans might miss.It’s a move from expertise in the subject matter to expertise in evaluating predictive technology.

The expanding Universe of Predictable Events

Initially focused on sports predictions, AI model betting is rapidly expanding.Here are some key areas seeing growth:

Financial Markets: Predicting stock price movements, currency fluctuations, and commodity trends. Algorithmic investing is a close relative, but AI model betting adds a layer of external validation.

Political Forecasting: Predicting election outcomes, policy changes, and geopolitical events. This is particularly sensitive, raising questions about data bias and manipulation.

Esports: Predicting match results in games like League of Legends, Dota 2, and Counter-Strike.The fast-paced nature of esports makes it ideal for real-time AI analysis.

Economic Indicators: Forecasting inflation rates, unemployment figures, and GDP growth.

Supply Chain Disruptions: Predicting potential bottlenecks and delays in global supply chains.

The Technology Behind the bets: AI & Machine learning

Several AI and ML techniques power these predictive models:

Deep Learning: complex neural networks capable of identifying intricate patterns in large datasets.

natural Language processing (NLP): analyzing text data (news articles, social media posts) to gauge sentiment and predict trends.

Time Series Analysis: Predicting future values based on historical data points. Crucial for financial forecasting.

Reinforcement Learning: Training AI agents to make optimal decisions through trial and error.

Bayesian Networks: Probabilistic models that represent relationships between variables.

the effectiveness of these techniques depends heavily on the quality of the data. Big data is essential, but it must be clean, accurate, and representative of the real-world phenomena being modeled. Data science plays a critical role in preparing and analyzing this data.

Benefits of Investing in AI Prediction Accuracy

Why are people starting to bet on AI? Several compelling reasons:

Potential for High Returns: Successful AI models can generate notable profits, and investors share in those gains.

Diversification: AI model betting offers a new asset class,diversifying investment portfolios beyond traditional stocks and bonds.

Transparency (Possibly): some platforms offer insights into the AI’s decision-making process, allowing investors to understand why a prediction is being made.(Though “black box” models remain common).

Democratization of Prediction: Previously, sophisticated predictive analytics were limited to large institutions. AI model betting makes these tools accessible to individual investors.

Innovation Incentive: the betting structure incentivizes developers to create more accurate and robust AI models.

Risks and Challenges: A word of Caution

Despite the potential, AI model betting isn’t without its risks:

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