AUKUS) and may be seeking to recalibrate its Middle‑East commitments to free resources for the Indo‑pacific theater.

.Trump’s Re‑evaluation of the US‑Israel Qualitative Military Edge (QME)

Political backdrop

• Former President Donald Trump, after re‑entering the political arena in 2025, has signaled a willingness to “re‑examine the QME policy” during a closed‑door meeting with senior defence officials in Washington.
• The statement follows a series of high‑profile arms deals with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, including Qatar’s 2025 order for 24 F‑15EX Eagle IIs and Saudi Arabia’s 2024 acquisition of Eurofighter Typhoons and an expanded Patriot missile‑defence contract.

Key drivers for a QME review

1. Regional arms race
• Iran’s continued growth of the Shahed‑140 ballistic missile and its negotiation for Russian S‑400 systems have heightened Israeli security concerns.
• Saudi and Qatari purchases of long‑range precision‑guided munitions (PGMs) and advanced air‑defence radars are raising questions about the balance of power in the Gulf.

2. Domestic political pressure
• Pro‑Israel advocacy groups are urging the governance to preserve Israel’s “unmatched air superiority.”
• Congressional Democrats,meanwhile,are demanding tighter oversight on arms exports to Gulf states due to human‑rights concerns.

3. Strategic realignment
• the United States is deepening security cooperation with India and Australia (AUKUS) and may be seeking to recalibrate its Middle‑East commitments to free resources for the Indo‑Pacific theater.

Saudi Arabia’s advanced arms trajectory

• 2024 Eurofighter Typhoon deal: €6 billion contract for 48 aircraft, including beyond‑visual‑range (BVR) missiles and AESA radars.
• Patriot‑2 upgrades: Deployment of PAC‑3 MSE interceptors capable of countering hypersonic glide vehicles.
• Future plans: Indications of a Saudi request for F‑35A Joint Strike Fighter variants, pending U.S. approval.

Qatar’s fast‑track modernization

Potential consequences of a QME shift

• For Israel
• risk: Reduction in U.S.‑supplied F‑35 jets could erode Israel’s stealth advantage against Iranian air‑defences.
• Opportunity: Israel may accelerate its own indigenous “Sky Shield” program, focusing on laser‑based missile‑defence systems.

• For Saudi Arabia & Qatar
• Benefit: Access to tier‑1 platforms like the F‑35 could level the playing field with Israel, prompting a new equilibrium in air‑to‑air capabilities.
• risk: Heightened scrutiny from the U.S. Congress could delay deliveries, affecting Gulf states’ force‑generation timelines.

• For U.S. strategic interests
• Positive: Leveraging QME adjustments as a bargaining chip could extract broader regional commitments (e.g., joint maritime patrols in the Red sea).
• Negative: perceived “favoritism” toward Gulf monarchies might strain the historically tight U.S.-Israel security partnership, possibly driving Israel toward choice suppliers such as France’s Rafale or the UK’s Tempest.

Practical policy considerations

1. Define clear thresholds – Establish quantitative metrics (e.g., number of 5th‑generation fighters, missile‑defence radar coverage) that trigger a QME review, ensuring transparency for both allies.
2. Create a joint oversight board – Include representatives from the Department of Defense, State Department, and Israeli ministry of Defense to evaluate the impact of Gulf arms sales on Israel’s security calculus.
3. Introduce phased technology sharing – Offer Israel incremental upgrades (e.g., advanced ISR satellites, cyber‑defence tools) to offset any perceived reduction in customary kinetic edge.
4. Tie arms approvals to regional cooperation – Condition future sales to Saudi Arabia and Qatar on measurable contributions to a collective Gulf‑wide missile‑defence architecture that includes Israeli participation.

Case study: 2024 Saudi Eurofighter deal and its ripple effect

• Background: Saudi Arabia secured a €6 billion Eurofighter order to replace aging Tornado aircraft.
• Immediate impact: Enhanced BVR engagement range and interoperability with NATO‑standard Link‑16 data links.
• Israeli response: Israel’s defense ministry accelerated procurement of the “David’s Sling” upgrade to its Arrow‑3 missile‑defence system, citing the need to maintain a qualitative edge.
• Policy outcome: The U.S. Congress introduced a supplemental appropriations bill mandating a review of any future F‑35 sales to Saudi Arabia while allowing the Eurofighter transaction to proceed, illustrating the delicate balance policymakers must navigate.

Strategic outlook for 2026 and beyond

• Potential QME adjustment scenarios
1. Status‑quo: Maintain current U.S.arms flow to Israel, while imposing tighter export controls on Gulf sales of 5th‑generation fighters.
2. Conditional upgrade: permit limited F‑35 deliveries to Saudi Arabia and Qatar only after Israel receives an upgrade package (e.g., new EL/M‑2084 M‑Radar).
3. Gradual phase‑out: Reduce U.S. direct fighter sales to Israel, encouraging a shift toward advanced ISR and cyber capabilities.

• Geopolitical implications
• A calibrated QME reassessment could incentivize Gulf states to join a broader “Middle‑East Integrated Air‑Domain” framework, fostering joint training exercises and shared radar networks.
• Conversely, mismanaging the policy could push Israel toward deeper strategic alignment with European partners, reshaping the traditional U.S.-Israel‑Gulf triad.

Key takeaways for policymakers and analysts

• the interplay between Trump’s QME review and the accelerating Saudi‑Qatari arms acquisitions creates a volatile but manageable security environment.
• Obvious criteria, joint oversight mechanisms, and reciprocal regional commitments are essential to preserve Israel’s qualitative advantage while sustaining lucrative U.S. defense exports to the Gulf.
• Monitoring the trajectory of Iranian missile development and the pace of Gulf‑state modernization will be critical in shaping the next phase of U.S. Middle‑East defense policy.