RIO DE JANEIRO — As Brazil gears up to host the anticipated Group of 20 summit, expectations for a comprehensive and impactful declaration concerning global geopolitics appear dim. The two-day gathering, taking place on Monday and Tuesday in Rio de Janeiro, is significantly impacted by the ongoing crises of two major wars and the recent electoral triumph of Donald Trump, adding layers of complexity to diplomatic discussions.

The atmosphere of heightened global tension, coupled with concerns about the policies of an incoming Trump administration, has effectively dampened hopes for a robust statement that would address the escalating conflicts in the Middle East and the prolonged battle between Russia and Ukraine. Experts are instead forecasting a final declaration that will likely focus on pressing social issues, particularly the urgent need for hunger eradication—an important priority championed by Brazil—while still attempting to acknowledge the ongoing military and geopolitical challenges facing the world.

“Brazilian diplomacy has been strongly engaged in this task, but to expect a substantively strong and consensual declaration in a year like 2024 with two serious international conflicts is to set the bar very high,” commented Cristiane Lucena Carneiro, a distinguished international relations professor at the University of Sao Paulo.

Following President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s successful thwarting of far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro’s reelection attempt in 2022, there was a wave of excitement within the international community regarding the possibility of this seasoned leftist leader—a diplomat who once earned the title of “the most popular politician on Earth” from Barack Obama—hosting the G20. In stark contrast, Bolsonaro possessed limited interest in international summits, allowing foreign policies to be dictated by ideological leanings and often clashing with foreign leaders, including France’s Emmanuel Macron. Lula, upon taking office, often reiterated the maxim: “Brazil is back.”

Brazil under Lula’s leadership has reverted to its longstanding principle of non-alignment, positioning itself to navigate the complexities of a multipolar world more effectively. This policy of engaging with all parties concerned has allowed Brazil to maintain a privileged role as the host of a significant summit like the G20.

However, Lula’s foreign policy has occasionally raised eyebrows internationally. Notably, a Brazil-China peace initiative regarding Russia and Ukraine has faced criticism for not demanding a Russian withdrawal from the conflict, drawing ire from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Moreover, Lula sparked controversy with Israel by likening its actions in Gaza to the Holocaust, igniting a diplomatic incident.

With Donald Trump’s recent victory in the U.S. presidential elections and the looming return of an “America First” approach, the diplomatic environment required to form a consensus on contentious issues is likely to be strained.

“If we have one certainty, it is regarding Donald Trump’s skepticism towards multilateralism,” Carneiro emphasized, shedding light on the possible implications for global cooperation.

Ambassador Mauricio Lyrio, Brazil’s chief negotiator at the G20, remarked on November 8 that while the final declaration from the leaders should touch on the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, discussions among diplomats were ongoing to craft language that would be universally agreeable.

“The main message, naturally, is that we need to achieve peace not only regarding these conflicts but all conflicts,” Lyrio stated from the capital, Brasilia. He highlighted that Lula’s initiative to launch a global alliance against hunger and poverty on Monday holds equal significance as the summit’s concluding statement.

“The leaders’ declaration will be the crowning achievement. But, at the same time, as instructed by the president himself, we have a G20 focused on concrete actions, particularly the launch of a Global Alliance Against Hunger, accompanied by a series of concrete social programs and innovative mechanisms to secure the resources necessary for their implementation.”

Lula, whose humble beginnings as a former trade unionist inform his policies, made the fight against hunger a cornerstone of his agenda during his first two presidential terms from 2003 to 2010, both domestically and on an international scale. Under his previous leadership, the prevalence of undernourished Brazilians saw a drastic decline of over 80% within ten years, as reported by a 2014 U.N. study.

According to political consultant Thomas Traumann, Lula’s focus on hunger is the only major target for a G20 declaration that is likely to materialize. “Brazil wanted a global deal to combat poverty, a comprehensive plan for financing a green transition, and some consensus on a global tax for the ultra-wealthy. Only the first aim has endured through these negotiations,” Traumann explained.

U.S. President Joe Biden is set to attend the summit after his participation in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Lima, followed by a visit to Manaus, a city nestled within Brazil’s Amazon rainforest. This visit marks a historic first for a sitting American president in the Amazon, underscoring the trip’s goals of promoting environmental stewardship and honoring the rights of local cultures, as outlined in a statement from the U.S. Embassy in Brazil on November 12.

White House officials have reiterated that Biden’s engagements at both APEC and the G20 will be substantive, encompassing discussions on climate change, global infrastructure projects, counternarcotics efforts, and individual meetings with key global leaders, including Chinese President Xi Jinping. It is reported that Biden intends to leverage these summits to rally support among allies for Ukraine amid its ongoing struggle against Russia’s invasion, while also advocating for a renewed focus on resolving conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza.

Any commitments made by Biden may face challenges should Trump take office again, which could lead to a shift in U.S. foreign policy. “It would mean Trump would have to be proactive and indicate that the U.S. would not adhere to agreements made on an international level,” said Danielle Ayres, an international relations professor at the Federal University of Santa Catarina. “Such a stance carries repercussions, generating insecurity and potentially fostering a negative image of Trump within the global community.”

The prospect of Trump’s election may also prompt other nations to seek more dependable partnerships with China. The recent inauguration of the Chancay megaport in Peru by Xi Jinping underscores the shifting alliances in Latin America towards greater engagement with China.

A prominent absentee from the G20 will be Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, who is currently facing an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court, compelling member states to detain him if he attends. In his absence, Russia’s delegation will be led by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Notably, Israel is not a member of the G20.

“The latest G20 meetings were somewhat depleted and became just another moment for bilateral meetings of heads of government. As Putin is out, Lula managed to keep Ukraine and Israel off the table, but Trump’s election diminishes Lula’s opportunity to shine on the international stage,” Traumann concluded.

In what ways could ‌Trump’s ​return⁢ to an “America First” policy impact international collaboration during the summit discussions?

**Interview with Cristiane Lucena Carneiro: Analyzing Brazil’s ⁣Upcoming⁣ G20 Summit**

**Interviewer:** Welcome, Professor Carneiro. As we approach the G20 ​summit in Rio ‍de Janeiro, many ‍are curious about the potential outcomes, especially given the current geopolitical climate. What are your expectations for⁤ the final⁤ declaration?

**Cristiane Lucena Carneiro:**⁣ Thank you for‍ having me.‍ To be ​honest,‍ the expectations for​ a comprehensive and impactful​ declaration are quite low. With the ongoing wars and ⁢Donald Trump’s recent⁣ electoral victory, the diplomatic environment‌ will be‌ quite challenging. I ⁣anticipate that the‍ final declaration will likely focus on pressing social issues, particularly addressing hunger, rather⁣ than⁣ confronting the military conflicts directly.

**Interviewer:**⁢ You mentioned​ the focus on‍ hunger. How important is this agenda for Brazil under President Lula’s leadership?

**Cristiane Lucena Carneiro:** Brazil has always prioritized issues related to social welfare, and Lula’s commitment to eradicating​ hunger is well-documented. Historically, ‍under his first‍ terms, the country saw a significant decline in undernourishment. So, launching a Global Alliance Against Hunger ⁣is not only a strategic move ⁤for Brazil but also a reflection of Lula’s longstanding policies ⁤in‍ this area.

**Interviewer:** Given the complexities of international relations and ‍Brazil’s⁤ non-alignment policy, how does Lula ‍navigate these challenges, especially with his controversial positions ‍on issues‌ like the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

**Cristiane Lucena​ Carneiro:** Lula’s non-alignment policy is a strategic approach to engage all parties in a multipolar world. However, this has led to criticism, especially regarding the​ Brazil-China peace initiative that ⁤did not firmly demand a Russian withdrawal. This sort of approach attempts to balance interests but can alienate some traditional allies, as seen with Ukraine.

**Interviewer:** How do you think ⁤Trump’s return to⁢ an “America First” policy will affect consensus-building at⁣ the summit?

**Cristiane Lucena Carneiro:**​ There⁣ is‍ a strong concern about‍ Trump’s skepticism towards multilateralism, which could complicate any efforts to⁢ reach consensual agreements on contentious issues. The dynamics will significantly shift, and it might ‍be challenging⁤ for leaders to come together on pressing matters, especially in light of national interests taking⁣ priority over global cooperation.

**Interviewer:** Lastly, ⁤do you believe that there’s a chance ‌for the G20 to produce meaningful results ‍amidst these tensions?

**Cristiane⁢ Lucena Carneiro:** ⁤I believe ​we might​ see significant emphasis ⁤on social issues, particularly hunger—this‍ might be the only area where a ⁤consensus ​can be reached. While substantive discussions on military conflicts may be limited, the mobilization around social initiatives could‍ offer a ⁤glimmer of ⁢hope for the summit’s ⁢outcomes.

**Interviewer:** Thank you, Professor Carneiro, for your insights. Your perspectives⁤ on the G20 summit are invaluable as we anticipate the⁢ discussions that will unfold.

**Cristiane ⁢Lucena Carneiro:** Thank you for⁢ having me! It’s a crucial time for global diplomacy, and I look forward to ⁢seeing how things develop in Rio.