Jordan’s Retreat and the Fragile Future of Gaza’s Security

The specter of a resurgent conflict in Gaza looms large, not solely due to ongoing tensions between Hamas and Israel, but also due to a potentially crippling reluctance from key regional players to commit to a robust, internationally-backed security force. King Abdullah II of Jordan’s recent statements questioning the feasibility of a “peace-enforcing” presence – preferring a limited “peacekeeping” role – reveal a troubling hesitancy that could unravel the fragile progress made towards a ceasefire and a long-term stabilization plan. This isn’t simply a matter of logistical challenges; it’s a reflection of deep-seated political calculations and a historical legacy that casts a long shadow over the region.

A Historical Echo: Abdullah I and the Partition of Palestine

The current King’s position is particularly jarring when viewed through the lens of his grandfather, Abdullah bin Hussein, the Emir of Transjordan during the 1947-1949 Arab-Israeli War. Abdullah I, recognizing the shifting geopolitical landscape, reportedly signaled to Zionist leaders that Transjordan would absorb Palestinian territories west of the Jordan River if allocated to a future Arab state. This pragmatic, if controversial, move secured territory for his kingdom but arguably contributed to the displacement of Palestinians and the enduring complexities of the two-state solution. Now, his grandson appears to be signaling a desire to distance Jordan from the direct security burdens of Gaza, a move some view as a betrayal of historical responsibility.

The Trump Plan and the International Stabilization Force (ISF)

The urgency surrounding the establishment of an International Stabilization Force (ISF) stems directly from the Trump administration’s peace plan, a plan widely acknowledged as flawed but nonetheless serving as a framework for ongoing negotiations. The second phase of this plan hinges on the deployment of the ISF to maintain security and oversee a potential withdrawal of Israeli forces. However, Israel’s repeated violations of the ceasefire – with over 50 breaches reported since its implementation, resulting in dozens of Palestinian casualties – underscore the precariousness of the situation and the critical need for an independent, credible security presence. Without it, the risk of renewed large-scale conflict is exceptionally high.

Türkiye’s Role and Netanyahu’s Opposition

Türkiye has emerged as a key player in brokering the ceasefire and is actively pushing for the ISF’s deployment. Ankara’s willingness to contribute personnel and resources is crucial, as U.S. diplomats reportedly believe Hamas will only agree to the force’s presence with Turkish involvement. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vehemently opposes a Turkish military presence in Gaza, viewing it as a strategic threat. This opposition highlights the deep distrust and geopolitical rivalry that complicate the peace process. The question remains whether the U.S. will exert sufficient pressure on Netanyahu to overcome his objections, or if the ISF will be fatally undermined before it even becomes operational.

Beyond Peacekeeping: The Need for Peace Enforcement

King Abdullah’s preference for a limited “peacekeeping” role – supporting local police rather than actively patrolling with weapons – is a dangerous underestimation of the challenges ahead. Gaza requires not merely peacekeeping, but peace enforcement. If Hamas disarms, as is being discussed, the Gazan population will be vulnerable to potential retaliation from hardline elements within Israel and the ongoing threat of extremist groups. A robust ISF must be prepared to protect civilians, prevent violence, and enforce the terms of any lasting agreement. To suggest otherwise is to ignore the historical context of the conflict and the deep-seated animosity that fuels it.

The U.S. Role and the Question of Commitment

The United States, as the primary architect of the Trump plan, bears a significant responsibility for ensuring the ISF’s success. However, the current administration’s commitment appears lukewarm, with a focus on observing the situation rather than actively compelling Israel to adhere to the agreed-upon conditions. This hands-off approach risks emboldening hardliners on both sides and jeopardizing the fragile progress that has been made. A truly effective ISF requires unwavering U.S. leadership and a willingness to confront Israel if it attempts to obstruct the deployment or undermine the peace process. The Council on Foreign Relations provides further analysis on the complexities of the Gaza situation.

A Looming Crisis of Confidence

The reluctance of Jordan, coupled with Israel’s opposition to Turkish involvement and the U.S.’s hesitant approach, creates a crisis of confidence that threatens to derail the entire peace process. The historical precedent of Abdullah I’s pragmatic maneuvering serves as a cautionary tale – prioritizing national interests over the collective security of the region can have devastating consequences. The future of Gaza hangs in the balance, and the international community must act decisively to ensure that the ISF is not just a symbolic gesture, but a genuine force for peace and stability. What are your predictions for the future of the ISF and the security situation in Gaza? Share your thoughts in the comments below!