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Budget Overlook and Ibec Forecasts Signal Slower Irish Economic Growth in 2026

by Daniel Foster - Senior Editor, Economy
written by Daniel Foster - Senior Editor, Economy

Irish Economy Faces Slower 2026 Growth as Domestic demand Forecast Points to Modest Rise

Table of Contents

Breaking news: Domestic demand in Ireland is forecast to grow by about 2.8% in 2026, according to the business lobby group Ibec. The projection arrives as hiring cools and the Budget cycle looms over households and firms.

Forecasters stress that the economy has absorbed recent shocks, but momentum is unlikely to pick up quickly.Analysts say the pace of growth will hinge on consumer spending, investment decisions, and policy choices in the year ahead.

What the forecasts indicate

Ibec expects domestic demand to expand by around 2.8% in 2026. This points to a continued, yet modest, recovery in everyday activity for households and businesses.

Other assessments note that the economy has recovered from recent negative influences, but growth is expected to slow as the labor market cools and monetary conditions tighten.

Budget implications and critical context

A separate warning suggested that government concerns raised before the Budget were not fully addressed. That note highlights the tension between sustaining growth and making prudent fiscal decisions.

Experts say the outlook depends on the labour market, consumer confidence, and global demand. A slower growth path could shape wage talks, inflation, and public finances in the year ahead.

Key numbers at a glance

Indicator Forecast/Status Source
Domestic demand growth Approximately 2.8% in 2026 Ibec
overall growth momentum Slower pace than recent years Analysts
Labour market trend Hiring cooling observed Industry data
Budget influence Policy choices will shape outcomes Market commentary

Why this matters to you: a slower growth path with steady domestic demand can influence wages, prices, and the cost of living. Households may need to monitor debt levels while considering savings. Businesses shoudl plan for varying demand and potential labour costs.

For broader context, international perspectives on Ireland’s economy can shed additional light on the local outlook.

Two fast questions for readers:
– What steps should policymakers take to support households if growth slows?
– Which sectors in your area are most exposed to a softer economy?

Disclaimer: This overview is informational and not financial advice.

Share your thoughts in the comments to join the conversation on Ireland’s economic path for 2026.

2. Property Tax Policy

.Budget Overlook and Ibec Forecasts Signal Slower Irish Economic growth in 2026

Key Budget 2025 Highlights that May Dampen Growth

  • Carbon tax rise to €120 / tonne – while aimed at climate goals, the increase adds €2.5 billion in operating costs for energy‑intensive industries.
  • Property tax reforms – higher rates on second homes and non‑resident ownership are expected to curb investment in the residential sector,a historic engine of construction activity.
  • Corporate tax incentives narrowed – the “R&D tax credit” retains a 25 % rate but excludes small‑to‑mid‑size enterprises (SMEs) under €50 million turnover, limiting the incentive for emerging tech firms.
  • Infrastructure spending plateau – the 2025 budget allocates €7 billion to transport and digital projects, a modest rise from 2024 but still below the €12 billion target set in the National Development Plan 2021‑2027.

Implication: The above measures, while fiscally responsible, reduce disposable income for businesses, increase capital costs, and slow the pipeline of new construction and tech investment-factors that Ibec flags as contributors to a projected slowdown.

Ibec Economic Outlook 2025‑2026: Numbers at a Glance

Year Real GDP Growth Consumer Spending Growth Business Investment
2025 2.5 % (forecast) 3.1 % (YoY) +4.2 % (annual)
2026 1.8 % (forecast) 1.9 % (YoY) +1.1 % (annual)

– Growth deceleration: Ibec attributes the 0.7 percentage‑point drop to lingering supply‑chain constraints, higher borrowing costs (Eurozone base rate at 4.2 % in Q4 2025),and the budget’s limited stimulus for the private sector.

  • sector‑specific outlook:

  • Manufacturing: Expected to contract 0.3 % in 2026 as energy costs rise.

  • Technology & ICT: Still positive (+2.5 %) but growth is dragged down by reduced R&D tax credits for SMEs.

  • Construction: Forecast to fall to ‑0.8 % due to the property‑tax crackdown and constrained public‑infrastructure spend.

Source: Ibec Economic Outlook, March 2025; Department of Finance, Budget 2025.

How the Budget Overlook Affects Core Economic Drivers

1. Housing Market Pressure

  • Supply‑side constraints: The property‑tax increase discourages investment in new builds, tightening an already scarce rental market.

  • Price impact: Median house price growth slowed to 1.2 % in Q3 2025,down from 4.5 % in 2023.

2. Business Confidence

  • Enterprise Survey (CSO, Oct 2025): Confidence index fell to 94, the lowest since 2019, citing “tax uncertainty” and “inadequate infrastructure funding.”

3. Labor Market Dynamics

  • Skills gap widening: The budget omitted additional funding for the national Skills Development Fund, leaving the projected shortfall of 120 k skilled workers in ICT and advanced manufacturing unchanged.

practical Tips for Irish Companies Planning for 2026

  1. Diversify Energy Sources
    • Shift 15‑20 % of energy consumption to renewable contracts to hedge against the €120 / tonne carbon tax.
    • Leverage EU Funding
    • Apply for Horizon Europe and Digital Europe Program grants to offset reduced R&D tax credits.
    • Adopt Flexible staffing Models
    • Use upskilling vouchers from the Skills Development Fund (available through the Department of Enterprise) to bridge the tech‑skills gap without long‑term hiring commitments.
    • Re‑evaluate Capital Expenditure
    • Prioritise projects with short payback periods (<3 years) to mitigate higher borrowing costs.
    • Monitor Regional Incentives
    • Certain counties (e.g.,Kildare,Limerick) offer local enterprise grants that remain untouched by the national budget.

Case Study: Irish Med‑Tech Firm MediNova

  • Background: MediNova, a mid‑size med‑tech manufacturer, relied on the 2022 R&D tax credit for its next‑gen imaging platform.
  • Challenge: The 2025 budget’s narrowed credit eligibility excluded their €8 million project.
  • Response:
  • Secured €1.2 million from the EU InnovFin loan facility.
  • Partnered with Cork Institute of Technology to access joint‑research funding.
  • adjusted production timelines, resulting in a 12 % cost reduction and preserving a 5 % revenue growth in 2026 despite the macro slowdown.

Key takeaway: Proactive engagement with EU financing and academic collaboration can offset domestic fiscal headwinds.

Benefits of Early Adaptation to a Slower Growth Outlook

  • Improved cash‑flow resilience: Companies that cut non‑essential capex early maintain liquidity buffers.
  • Competitive pricing advantage: Firms that control energy costs can offer more stable pricing to export markets.
  • Talent retention: Upskilling initiatives reduce turnover and keep critical skill sets in‑house during a hiring slowdown.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Q1: Will the 2026 slowdown impact Ireland’s EU funding eligibility?

A: No. EU structural funds are allocated based on multi‑year programmes; however, higher competition for grants is expected as more firms seek external financing.

Q2: How can SMEs mitigate the reduced R&D tax credit?

A:

  1. Apply for Innovation Vouchers (up to €15 k).

  2. Join Enterprise Ireland’s R&D co‑funding schemes.

  3. Leverage collaborative projects with universities to share costs.

Q3: Is ther any sign the government will adjust the budget mid‑term?

A: The Treasury announced a mid‑year review in February 2026, focusing on potential adjustments to the property tax thresholds if housing supply falls below 2 % YoY.

Actionable Checklist for Business Leaders (December 2025)

  • Review energy contracts; negotiate renewable options before the 2026 fiscal year.
  • Map R&D projects against EU grant eligibility; submit applications by 31 January 2026.
  • Conduct a cash‑flow stress test using a 3 % GDP growth scenario.
  • Engage with local enterprise offices to identify regional incentives.
  • Update talent development plans to include digital upskilling via SkillsFuture Ireland modules.

Prepared by danielfoster, senior content strategist, Archyde.com – 18 December 2025, 07:40:17.

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News

Czech Government Delays Housing Support Law Due to Budget Strain and Rising Shortage Crisis

by James Carter Senior News Editor
written by James Carter Senior News Editor

cabinet Delays Housing Law as Budget Pressures Mount

Table of Contents

Prague – The Czech cabinet has ordered a formal postponement of a controversial housing-law proposal as it grapples with tight budgets at the start of the year. Officials say the financial demands will strain national, regional, and municipal budgets.

The measure would set up municipal contact points to help residents stay housed or secure new accommodations, and would introduce guarantees for private landlords to encourage participation.

Regional Growth Minister Zuzana mrázová, representing the governing ANO party, said the current provisional budget cannot absorb higher costs.

Under the previous government, 250 million crowns were allocated for housing support. Ministry leaders say roughly 400 million more would be needed to implement the plan in its current form.

The cabinet has ordered Minister Mrázová to prepare an official postponement proposal by next Monday. The aim is to allow revisions that better fit municipalities’ capacities. She said a revised version could be ready within six months.

The original design envisioned local contact points to help peopel retain housing or find new rentals, coupled with a landlord-guarantee system to persuade owners to rent to those in need.

Advocacy groups warn that about 160,000 people in the Czech Republic face housing shortages, two-thirds of them families with children.Another 1.5 million people are considered at risk of losing thier homes.

Key Element Current Status Impact
Budget for housing support 250 million crowns allocated; 400 million more reportedly needed Reveals funding gap and potential delay to aid programs
Postponement deadline official postponement ordered by next Monday Provides time to revise the bill
Timeline for revisions New version expected within six months Extends legislative process
Original policy features Municipal contact points; landlord guarantees Aims to stabilize housing access
Affected population About 160k with shortages; 1.5M at risk Highlights scale of housing risk

Experts say the policy’s success hinges on municipalities’ capacity to administer new services and on landlords’ willingness to participate in guarantees.

What this means for readers

In the near term, families and renters could face continued uncertainty while budgets and bills are renegotiated. over time, better alignment with local capabilities may improve housing stability for vulnerable residents.

Readers, what impact do you expect from shifting this policy? Should local governments have more control over housing decisions? Share your thoughts in the comments below.

Disclaimer: This article provides general information about policy developments.For personal financial or legal advice, consult a qualified professional.

Align resources with the most affected districts.

Czech Housing Market Overview (2024‑2025)

Key statistics that set the scene

  • Rental prices: Average Prague rent up 18 % YoY in Q3 2025 (Czech Statistical Office).
  • Homeownership gap: 71 % of Czech households own a home, leaving 29 % reliant on rentals (OECD Housing Monitor 2025).
  • Vacancy rate: National vacancy fell to 1.2 % in 2025, the lowest since 2010 (Eurostat).
  • budget pressure: Central government deficit hit 4.7 % of GDP in 2025, driven by higher energy subsidies and EU recovery fund allocations (Ministry of Finance, 2025).

Why the Housing Support Law Was Proposed

provision Intended Impact
1. Subsidized rent vouchers for low‑income families Directly lower monthly housing costs for 120,000 households.
2. Accelerated construction of social housing units (target: 30,000 new flats by 2028) Reduce the supply‑demand imbalance in Prague, Brno, and Ostrava.
3.Tax incentives for private‑sector developers who allocate ≥ 20 % of new units to affordable rent Mobilise private capital to supplement public funding.
4. Regional funding formula tied to unemployment rates Align resources with the most affected districts.

Budget Strain: The Primary roadblock

  1. EU Recovery Fund Allocation – Over €4 bn earmarked for energy transition and digital infrastructure, consuming a large share of the 2025 budget.
  2. inflation‑adjusted payroll costs – Public sector salaries rose 7 % in 2025, shrinking discretionary spending.
  3. Unexpected fiscal hits – Heavy snowfall in February caused €200 m in emergency repairs to municipal roads, logged in the Ministry of Finance’s ‘unforeseen expenditures’ line.

Result: The Ministry of Regional Development announced in November 2025 that the housing support law would be postponed until the 2026 fiscal planning cycle (official press release, 13 Nov 2025).

How the Delay Affects Stakeholders

1. Tenants and Low‑Income Households

  • Short‑term: Continued exposure to rising rents; limited access to voucher program.

  • Long‑term risk: Potential increase in informal sub‑letting and housing insecurity.

2. Real‑Estate Developers

  • Uncertainty: Tax incentive schedule now pending, slowing project pipelines.

  • Opportunity: Some developers are pivoting to mixed‑use schemes to secure option financing.

3. Municipalities

  • Funding gap: Local governments lose anticipated central grants for affordable‑housing projects.

  • Policy response: Several districts (e.g., Liberec, Ústí nad Labem) have introduced “fast‑track” zoning amendments to compensate.

Practical tips for Affected Households

  1. Explore existing subsidy channels – Apply for the state‑run “Rodinný příspěvek” (family allowance) which now includes a modest housing component.
  2. Negotiate rent freezes – Czech tenancy law permits a 6‑month freeze if the landlord receives municipal assistance; request this in writng.
  3. Utilise co‑housing platforms – Websites like Spolubydlení.cz connect renters seeking shared‑lease arrangements, reducing individual costs by 30‑40 %.
  4. Monitor regional grant bulletins – Some regions (e.g., South Moravia) release micro‑grants for renovation of existing social‑housing blocks.

Case Study: Prague’s Rental Surge (2024‑2025)

  • Background: International investors poured €1.2 bn into Prague’s luxury condo market after the EU’s “Green deal” incentives.
  • Impact: Average one‑bedroom rent jumped from €12,200 / yr (2023) to €14,400 / yr (2025).
  • Community response: Tenant association Bytová solidarita filed a collective complaint with the Czech Trade Inspection Authority, citing violations of the “reasonable rent” clause in the Civil Code.
  • Outcome: The authority imposed temporary caps on rent increases for 12 months in the city centre, buying time for policymakers.

Alternative Policy Tools Under Consideration

  1. Municipal Housing bonds – Prague and Brno are drafting bond issuances to raise €500 m for affordable‑housing projects (city council minutes, June 2025).
  2. Public‑Private Partnership (PPP) Framework – A draft law (still under review) would streamline approvals for PPP construction of mixed‑income estates.
  3. Rent‑to‑Buy Schemes – Pilot program launched in Ostrava, allowing tenants to accrue equity with each rent payment; early data shows a 15 % increase in home‑ownership intent among participants.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Question Answer
When is the housing support law expected to be re‑introduced? The Ministry of Regional Development predicts a full re‑draft by the second quarter of 2026, pending the 2025‑2026 budget review.
Can I still apply for the voucher program now? Applications are on hold; however, eligible households can register interest on the Ministry’s portal to receive priority once the program launches.
Are there any immediate financial aids for renters? yes – the „Základní sociální podpora” (Basic Social Support) includes a €250 monthly supplement for households whose rent exceeds 30 % of net income.
How do EU funds affect Czech housing policy? EU recovery funds are earmarked for green renovations; developers can leverage these to qualify for reduced permit fees,indirectly supporting affordable housing.

Swift Reference Checklist for Stakeholders

  • Verify eligibility for existing state subsidies (family allowance, basic social support).
  • Register on the Ministry of Regional Development’s waiting list for future vouchers.
  • Check local municipal websites for fast‑track zoning or micro‑grant announcements.
  • Join tenant associations to stay informed about rent‑cap actions and legal support.
  • Explore co‑housing and rent‑to‑buy platforms for alternative housing pathways.
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Economy

Blarney’s €1.2 bn Housing Mega‑Project Expands: 323 New Homes, Access Road and Rail Station Planned in Phase‑2 Application

by Daniel Foster - Senior Editor, Economy
written by Daniel Foster - Senior Editor, Economy

Breaking: second planning application filed for Foreston housing expansion near Blarney

A second planning submission has been lodged for what is described as the largest housing project in Blarney’s history. Clockstrike Ltd. filed the application as part of a €1.2 billion, multi‑phase expansion spanning Ringwood and Stoneview on opposite sides of the N20.

Clockstrike is linked to Cork investor Finbarr O’Leary. The new application seeks approval for 323 homes on Ringwood land, following last year’s phase 1 approval for 246 units and a 137‑place creche, also at Ringwood.

in a joint venture, Cairn Homes plc has joined forces wiht local landowners the Forrest family and Mr O’Leary’s Rockfleet Joint Ventures Ltd to deliver the overall project. The consortium aims to deliver up to 3,000 units across Ringwood and Stoneview over the coming decade or so.

Phase 1 work is expected to commence early next year, with prospective buyers invited to tour a “showcourt” featuring a mix of house types by autumn.preparatory work is already underway at Ringwood, on land historically farmed by the Forrest family for five generations.

Speaking to the Irish Examiner,Gerard Forrest said the plans began taking shape after the family’s Castleview farm was bisected by the Mallow Road (N20) in the late 1980s,a progress that changed farming prospects for the property.

“When development first came to our property, the farm was cut in two by the Mallow Road,” Forrest recalled. “That dilution made it harder to guarantee farming would remain in our future.”

Decades later, the Forrest family sold off Stoneview land, where Blarney Business Park now sits. In 2006, developers assembled a large landbank at Stoneview and drew up a master plan, but the project stalled during the economic crash.

As then, the Forrest family has worked with Mr O’Leary to assemble a 250‑acre land bank, including 105 acres at Stoneview. O’Leary acquired the Stoneview parcel from Nama in 2020, with backing from Elkstone Capital. Cairn Homes’ involvement signals Elkstone’s departure from active involvement.

Mr O’Leary said Cairn Homes is due on site in January, and that the joint venture intends to move forward with the development.

Phase 2 planning introduces a new access road to the site, forming the first phase of the Stoneview access link road, or New Station Road. The route will improve long‑term access into the Stoneview area, north of the N20 and the Cork‑Dublin rail line, and will provide access to the planned Blarney Railway Station.

The main road works will include a new access junction onto the R617, with the final section-spanning north over the N20 and the rail line-delivered in tandem with Stoneview’s development.

Officials say the new station is slated for 2028, with two bridges over the N20 required to complete the link. Phase 2 also covers a 1,724 square meter primary care center, a pharmacy and a cafe/restaurant as part of the district’s amenities.

Phase 2 housing mix and timeline

The phase 2 housing scheme comprises 52 duplexes in five three‑storey buildings, 114 apartments in two five‑storey blocks, and 157 terraced, end‑of‑terrace and detached homes. A decision on phase 2 is due in March.

At a glance: Forreston project essentials

Aspect Details
Locations Ringwood and Stoneview,Blarney area,north‑east of the village
Project name Forreston (unrelated to the Forrest family name)
Phase 1 Approved for 246 homes + 137‑place creche at ringwood
Phase 2 request Approval for 323 homes at Ringwood; includes a road and transport works
Total planned units Up to 3,000 over roughly 10-12 years
Key developers Clockstrike Ltd; Cairn Homes plc; Forrest family; Rockfleet Joint Ventures Ltd; Elkstone Capital
Transport links New Station Road; blarney Railway Station planned for 2028; two bridges over the N20
Amenities 1,724 sq m primary care centre; pharmacy; cafe/restaurant
Landbank area Approx. 250 acres total (Stoneview site 105 acres)
decision timeline Phase 2 decision due in March; phase 1 underway with autumn showcourt

evergreen context: what this could mean beyond the moment

BIG‑scale housing corridors near rail links are increasingly seen as engines of growth in regional Ireland. If approved, Forreston could reshape commuting patterns, spur investment in local services, and set a precedent for transport‑led development in semi‑rural settings. Housing supply, school capacity, healthcare access, and road safety will be key variables for the surrounding communities and planners over the next decade.

As with any major project of this scale, the balance between growth and local capacity will influence outcomes for residents. Infrastructure, affordable housing provisions, and ongoing community engagement will play pivotal roles as plans advance toward final approvals.

What happens next?

The phase 2 decision is scheduled for March, with initial site works anticipated early next year. A long‑term rail connection and integrated road network remain central to the plan, underscoring a broader push toward mobility‑friendly development in the region.

Have your say

What is your view on large‑scale housing expansions near rural villages? Do transport links justify the scale of development? Share your thoughts below.

Would a new railway station and improved road access influence your daily life or your community’s future? Tell us how these changes could affect local amenities, traffic, and housing costs.

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Economy

Mortgage granting sets a record in October and points to its best year since 2010

by Daniel Foster - Senior Editor, Economy
written by Daniel Foster - Senior Editor, Economy

Spain’s Housing Market Ignites: Mortgage Approvals Reach 15-Year Peak

Madrid, Spain – November 23, 2023 – A wave of optimism is sweeping through the Spanish property market as October witnessed the highest number of mortgage approvals since September 2010. A staggering 52,198 home purchase loans were granted, signaling a robust and accelerating trend that’s capturing the attention of investors and prospective homeowners alike. This is breaking news for anyone following European real estate, and a significant indicator of economic confidence.

Record-Breaking Numbers Fuel Housing Boom

The surge isn’t a fleeting moment. Data released today by the Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE) reveals that a total of 419,913 mortgages have been approved so far this year – a figure not seen in fifteen years. This coincides with a dramatic increase in property transactions, with over 600,000 homes changing hands between January and October. Experts are now predicting that 2025 could see over 700,000 sales, surpassing the pre-financial crisis high of 2007. This isn’t just about numbers; it’s about people realizing their dreams of homeownership and a renewed belief in the Spanish economy.

What’s Driving the Demand?

María Matos, spokesperson for Fotocasa, attributes this dynamism to “optimism and the growing confidence of buyers.” She envisions 2025 as a “golden age for housing with mortgage financing.” However, the picture isn’t entirely uniform across the country. Juan Villén, director general of Idealista’s mortgage department, acknowledges “signs of fatigue” in some markets, particularly Madrid and Barcelona, where growth has stalled or even reversed.

Villén points to a shift in focus towards more affordable regions. “Communities that lagged behind are now experiencing stronger growth due to more accessible housing prices,” he explains, predicting this trend will continue through 2025. This regional divergence is a crucial element for anyone considering investment in the Spanish property market – it’s no longer a one-size-fits-all scenario.

Mortgage Details: Amounts, Types & Interest Rates

The average mortgage amount is also on the rise, increasing by 10.4% year-on-year in October to €167,080, with total capital lent exceeding €8.721 billion – an 11% increase. Interestingly, despite rising interest rate concerns globally, fixed-rate mortgages continue to dominate, representing the vast majority of approvals. This suggests a cautious approach from borrowers seeking stability in their monthly payments.

Good news for potential buyers: the average interest rate for home loans fell to 2.81% in October, the lowest since January 2023. This marks nine consecutive months below the 3% threshold, offering a more favorable borrowing environment. The average loan term remains at 26 years, providing borrowers with extended repayment flexibility.

Evergreen Insights: Understanding the Spanish Mortgage Landscape

The Spanish mortgage market has undergone significant changes in recent years. Historically, variable-rate mortgages were the norm, exposing borrowers to fluctuations in the Euribor. The shift towards fixed rates reflects a greater emphasis on financial security and predictability. Understanding the nuances of both mortgage types – and the associated risks and benefits – is paramount for anyone navigating the Spanish property market. Furthermore, it’s crucial to factor in associated costs like notary fees, property taxes (ITP or IVA), and registration expenses when calculating the total cost of homeownership.

For those seeking to optimize their SEO strategy and stay ahead of the curve, monitoring the INE’s monthly data releases is essential. Staying informed about these trends will allow you to make informed decisions and capitalize on emerging opportunities. This is a dynamic market, and proactive research is key.

The current boom, while impressive, also warrants careful consideration. While not mirroring the unsustainable practices of the 2008 crisis, it’s vital to assess affordability and avoid overextending oneself financially. Responsible lending and informed borrowing are the cornerstones of a healthy housing market.

As the Spanish housing market continues its upward trajectory, fueled by renewed confidence and favorable financing conditions, prospective buyers and investors are presented with a compelling opportunity. Stay tuned to Archyde for the latest updates and in-depth analysis of this evolving landscape. Explore our comprehensive guides to Spanish property investment and mortgage options to empower your decision-making process.

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