The location for upcoming peace talks between Ukraine and Russia is in question after Iran—a key ally of Russia—launched attacks that have disrupted air travel in the region. The originally planned location of Abu Dhabi is now untenable, marking one of the first visible consequences of the escalating conflict involving the United States and Iran on the prospects for resolving the four-year war in Ukraine.
While the immediate impact is the cancellation of a meeting site, analysts and diplomats foresee broader repercussions, including potential strains on munitions stockpiles and a shift in U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy priorities. Some observers suggest a prolonged and tricky conflict in Iran could incentivize Trump to accelerate efforts to secure a resolution in Ukraine, while others believe it could create fresh leverage for Kyiv.
A surprising development in the unfolding situation is the United States’ request for Ukraine’s expertise in countering Iran’s Shahed drones. These drones, produced at a cost of less than $50,000 each, have proven difficult to intercept for the U.S. And its allies. Ukraine, having gained experience in combating similar drones supplied to Russia by Iran, has developed cost-effective methods of destruction.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed his willingness to assist. “I gave instructions to provide the necessary means and ensure the presence of Ukrainian specialists who can guarantee the required security,” Zelensky stated on Thursday. This assistance extends to Gulf states, who have been utilizing expensive Patriot missiles to defend against the cheaper Iranian drones, potentially easing the demand on those systems and freeing them up for use against Russian ballistic missiles.
Zelensky’s statement also carried a subtle message regarding Ukraine’s position. “Ukraine helps partners who help ensure our security and protect the lives of our people,” he said, signaling a willingness to leverage its expertise in exchange for continued support.
Still, Ukraine’s capacity to provide substantial assistance is limited by its own defensive needs. The country requires interceptors to defend against Russian drone attacks. A protracted war in Iran poses a threat to U.S. Munitions stockpiles, particularly those of Patriot missiles, which are also crucial for Ukraine’s defense.
Trump, in an interview with Politico on Tuesday, expressed confidence in U.S. Munitions availability, stating, “We have unlimited of the middle- and upper middle- ammunition,” and that Iran was “running out of launchers.” However, reports indicate that stockpiles of key weapons, such as Patriot missiles, are limited, with current U.S. Production rates in the low hundreds annually.
This discrepancy has raised concerns among some in the U.S. Government and Europe about the Trump administration’s ability to simultaneously manage the conflict in Iran and fulfill its security commitments, including those to Ukraine. “They probably do not realize themselves, as it will depend on how the war goes,” one European diplomat told Foreign Policy, speaking on condition of anonymity. A senior congressional aide echoed this sentiment, stating, “the war will impact Ukraine, Taiwan, and all other security assistance.”
Zelensky acknowledged the potential impact on Ukraine’s air defense supplies. “We understand that a long war [in Iran]—if it is long—and the intensity of the military actions will affect the amount of air defense we receive,” he said.
The diversion of resources could also impact the provision of offensive weapons to Ukraine. Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, noted that the U.S. Use of Tomahawk missiles in Iran likely eliminates the possibility of providing that platform to Ukraine, a capability that could have been used to target Russian oil production facilities.
Analysts are also considering how the war in Iran might influence Trump’s broader diplomatic approach and his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and a former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, suggested that success in Iran could embolden Trump to exert more pressure on Russia. However, he cautioned that Trump’s relationship with Putin could temper any such response. “He has this thing with Putin, which gets in the way of sound analysis,” Herbst said.
Conversely, Peter Slezkine, director of the Russia Program at the Stimson Center, argued that a difficult situation in Iran could push Trump to seek a quick resolution in Ukraine through a deal with Russia. “Trump has always been more amenable to the [neoconservative] view of Iran than of Russia. If anything, an extended American embroilment in the Middle East might make him even more interested in reaching a deal with Russia to end the war in Ukraine,” Slezkine said.
Trump has publicly criticized Zelensky, posting on Truth Social on Monday, “Joe Biden spent all of his time, and our Country’s money, GIVING everything to P.T. Barnum (Zelenskyy!) of Ukraine.” He reiterated his criticism in a Thursday interview with Politico, stating that Zelensky “has to get on the ball, and he has to get a deal done,” and adding, “It’s unthinkable that he’s the obstacle. You don’t have the cards. Now he’s got even less cards.”
Despite these comments, Herbst dismissed the remarks as typical Trump rhetoric.
Ukraine has been actively working to cultivate relationships within the Trump administration. Following a contentious meeting between Zelensky and Trump in February 2025, which led to a temporary suspension of U.S. Aid, Kyiv pursued a strategy focused on trade, energy, and religious outreach. A critical minerals deal offering U.S. Companies access to Ukrainian resources, agreements for the purchase of U.S. Liquefied natural gas via Greece, and a prayer breakfast attended by key Trump administration officials, including Paula White-Cain and Riley Barnes, are examples of these efforts. Ukraine also highlighted the persecution of Christians in Russian-occupied territories, reportedly contributing to the cancellation of a planned meeting between White House officials and Russian faith leaders.
Melania Trump has also taken an interest in the issue of Ukrainian children kidnapped by Russian forces, with ongoing discussions between her staff and Russian officials. However, some remain skeptical that these efforts will translate into significant influence over Trump himself.
“The [kidnapped] children issue has had an impact in Trump world—there’s no doubt about it,” Herbst said. “But, of course, Trump doesn’t really care that much about Trump world.”
