The Hazelnut Crisis: How Climate Change and Global Events Are Threatening Your Nutella

A 35% price surge since April 2025 isn’t just a blip on the radar – it’s a warning shot. From toilet paper hoarding during the pandemic to sunflower oil disruptions linked to the Ukraine war, supply chain shocks are becoming the new normal. Now, the humble hazelnut is the latest victim, and the ripple effects will be felt in everything from your morning coffee to your children’s favorite treats. This isn’t simply about a pricier jar of Nutella; it’s a stark illustration of how climate change is fundamentally reshaping the global food system.

Türkiye’s Troubles: Frost, Speculation, and a Looming Shortfall

The immediate cause of the current crisis is an unusual frost that swept through Türkiye earlier this year, a key global producer of hazelnuts. Initial estimates suggested losses of up to 250,000 tons, but the International Council of Nuts and Dehydrated Fruits (INC) now pegs the damage at around 167,000 tons – still a substantial 22% reduction in the forecast harvest. This scarcity has already driven prices upwards, with projections reaching $10 per kilo internationally. However, the situation was exacerbated by a delay in announcing a base price for hazelnuts last year, creating a vacuum filled by speculation and panic buying, further constricting supply.

Beyond Nutella: The Wider Impact on the Food Industry

While Nutella, which uses roughly a quarter of the world’s hazelnut supply, is the most visible casualty, the impact extends far beyond the iconic chocolate spread. Approximately 13% of Nutella’s recipe consists of hazelnuts, meaning even small price fluctuations significantly impact production costs. Ferrero, the manufacturer of Nutella, as well as brands like Ferrero Rocher, Kinder Bueno, and Mon Cheri, are all heavily reliant on this nut. Other confectionery companies and bakeries are also bracing for increased costs, particularly as cocoa prices remain elevated. The pressure is mounting to find alternatives, and potentially reformulate recipes.

The Search for Alternative Sources

Faced with dwindling supplies from Türkiye, manufacturers are diversifying their sourcing. Chile, Georgia, and the United States are emerging as alternative suppliers, but scaling up production isn’t a quick fix. Hazelnut trees take 5-7 years to mature, limiting the potential for short-term relief. Ferrero itself maintains it is diversifying its supply chain, stating it doesn’t foresee interruptions, but the reality is that shifting production isn’t seamless.

Climate Change: The New Normal for Agricultural Disruptions

The hazelnut shortage isn’t an isolated incident. It’s a symptom of a larger, more troubling trend: the increasing vulnerability of agricultural sectors to the effects of climate change. Hazelnuts are particularly susceptible to spring frosts, and this year’s cold snap in Türkiye serves as a potent reminder that the climate crisis isn’t just about rising temperatures – it’s about increased unpredictability and extreme weather events. Experts warn that these erratic climate patterns are likely to become more frequent, posing a threat not only to hazelnuts but also to almonds, walnuts, and other vital crops. This is a systemic risk that demands attention.

Long-Term Strategies: Resilience and Innovation

The current crisis highlights the need for proactive strategies to build resilience into the hazelnut supply chain. This includes investing in climate-resilient hazelnut varieties, exploring innovative farming techniques to mitigate the impact of frost, and diversifying sourcing regions. Furthermore, greater transparency and price stability mechanisms are needed to prevent speculative price hikes. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) offers valuable resources on building climate resilience in agriculture.

Ultimately, the hazelnut crisis is a wake-up call. It demonstrates that even seemingly stable global supply chains are vulnerable to disruption. The future of our food supply depends on our ability to adapt to a changing climate and build a more resilient and sustainable agricultural system. What are your predictions for the future of hazelnut production and the impact on consumer prices? Share your thoughts in the comments below!