Afghanistan’s Water Ambitions Stoke Regional Fire Amid Growing Climate Crisis

kabul, Afghanistan – Afghanistan’s assertive push to control and develop its water resources is triggering significant diplomatic friction with its neighbors. As regaining power in 2021, the Taliban governance has initiated ambitious infrastructure projects, including dams and canals, aimed at maximizing the utility of vital river flows that traverse or feed into Iran, Pakistan, and Central Asian nations. these developments, however, are occurring against a backdrop of worsening regional water scarcity, a direct consequence of escalating climate change impacts.

Central Asia on High Alert Over Qosh Tepa Canal

The most prominent of these projects, the Qosh Tepa canal, has emerged as a focal point of regional concern. This colossal undertaking is designed to irrigate a vast 560,000 hectares of agricultural land in northern afghanistan. Experts warn that its construction could divert as much as 21% of the Amu Darya’s flow, a lifeline for water-stressed Central Asian states.

Worries are particularly acute in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, with kazakhstan expressing solidarity. They fear the canal’s operation could exacerbate the shrinking of the Aral Sea and destabilize existing, often Soviet-era, water-sharing agreements. Water governance specialist Mohd Faizee cautioned that regardless of current diplomatic tones, the canal’s full operation will inevitably lead to consequences for these downstream nations.

Taliban officials, however, maintain a contrasting perspective. Project manager Sayed Zabihullah Miri asserts that the Amu Darya possesses ample water, especially during flood seasons and glacial melt. They emphasize that the canal is crucial for bolstering food security in a nation plagued by climate-induced crop failures and persistent humanitarian crises.

Reviving Old Disputes: The helmand River and Beyond

To Afghanistan’s west, Iran faces its own set of water-related tensions. The two nations share a formal water-sharing treaty concerning the Helmand River, dating back to 1973. However, this accord has seldom been fully implemented. Tehran frequently alleges that Kabul obstructs water flow through upstream dams, particularly during periods of drought.

Kabul counters that prevailing water scarcity, worsened by climate change, limits its capacity to release more water.An Afghanistan Analysts Network report suggests that afghan authorities also feel they have been historically short-changed on Helmand waters due to mismanagement and political neglect.

Further complicating the regional water landscape, disputes are also brewing over the Harirud River basin, which flows into Iran and Turkmenistan. Afghanistan’s recent inauguration of the Pashdan Dam on this river has intensified these concerns. Analysts suggest that a reduction in security risks following the protracted conflict may accelerate such water infrastructure projects, possibly reshaping regional water dynamics for years to come.

Pakistan’s Watchful Eye on the Kabul River

In eastern Afghanistan, the Kabul River basin, which eventually feeds into Pakistan’s Indus River system, presents another area of potential friction. Unlike its relationship with Iran, Afghanistan has no formal water-sharing treaty with Pakistan. While water disputes have not historically dominated their complex bilateral relations, Kabul’s initiatives to revive existing river projects and construct new ones could lead to increased tensions.

Though, Afghanistan’s significant financial constraints and a lack of technical expertise mean that manny of these large-scale projects are likely years away from full completion. This timeline might offer some temporary diplomatic respite, but for the millions of Afghans enduring severe water shortages, the prolonged wait could deepen their hardship.

The Pervasive Impact of the Climate Crisis

Afghanistan’s water challenges are inextricably linked to the escalating global climate emergency. Reports from the UN’s International Organisation for Migration (IOM) indicate that nearly five million people were affected by climate shocks such as floods and droughts in early 2025, with close to 400,000 people displaced.

The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization warned in July that crop failures, arid pastures, and vanishing water sources are pushing rural populations to the brink. As an example, communities in western Herat have witnessed the Harirud River dwindle, forcing families deported from Iran to return to barren lands with little to cultivate.

Pro Tip: Understanding the interconnectedness of water management, climate resilience, and regional diplomacy is crucial for navigating the complex challenges faced by countries like Afghanistan. Investing in sustainable water practices and international cooperation is key to mitigating future conflicts.

Even Afghanistan’s own officials acknowledge the inadequacy of current measures. Abdul Latif Mansoor,the Energy and Water Minister,recently conceded that despite ongoing canal and dam projects,”the measures we have taken so far are not enough.” Limited funding, international isolation, and governance challenges further compound Afghanistan’s struggle to cope with climate change impacts, all while navigating one of the world’s most severe humanitarian crises.

Ultimately, for millions of Afghans, access to water-whether too little during dry spells or too much during floods-is a matter of survival. The Taliban’s drive to assert control over the nation’s rivers is shaping up to be a defining issue, impacting both Afghanistan’s internal stability and its critical relationships with its neighbors.

What are your thoughts on Afghanistan’s water management strategies and their impact on regional stability? Share your views in the comments below!