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Trump & Gaza: Can Palestinians Trust a New Israel Deal?

by James Carter Senior News Editor
written by James Carter Senior News Editor

The Precarious Ceasefire: Why Gaza’s Future Hinges on a Shifting Geopolitical Landscape

The current ceasefire in Gaza, while offering a desperately needed reprieve, isn’t a turning point – it’s a pause in a conflict fundamentally shaped by distrust, asymmetrical power dynamics, and the unpredictable foreign policy of a single individual. The fragility of this agreement isn’t simply about the unresolved issues between Israel and Hamas; it’s about the erosion of faith in any long-term commitment, and the growing realization that the future of the region is being reshaped by forces far beyond the negotiating table.

The Phased Failure Model and the Hostage Dilemma

Previous ceasefire attempts have consistently followed a phased approach, designed to address the most pressing issues – typically hostage releases and humanitarian aid – first, while deferring the more intractable problems of withdrawal, disarmament, and governance. This strategy, however, has proven disastrously one-sided. Israel, holding the stronger hand, has repeatedly exploited the initial phases to achieve its objectives, then abandoned the process once those objectives were met, leaving Palestinians in a worse position than before. The current agreement, with its upfront release of all remaining Israeli captives, attempts to circumvent this pattern, but at a significant cost: it offers Hamas little leverage for future concessions.

This inherent imbalance highlights a critical dilemma: every concession made by Hamas is effectively irreversible, while Israel retains the ability to undo its own. A withdrawal can be reversed, prisoners rearrested. This asymmetry makes a reliable guarantor essential, and that’s where the current situation becomes particularly fraught.

Trump’s Unpredictability: A Catalyst for Both Crisis and Opportunity

The reliance on U.S. President Donald Trump as that guarantor is, to put it mildly, problematic. His past actions – undermining previous ceasefires, suggesting the ludicrous idea of turning Gaza into a U.S.-controlled “Riviera,” and tacitly approving actions that undermined negotiations – have demonstrated a profound lack of commitment to a just and lasting peace. His willingness to prioritize short-term political gains over long-term stability has repeatedly jeopardized the prospects for resolution.

However, ironically, Trump’s erratic behavior may have inadvertently created the conditions for the current ceasefire. His perceived willingness to greenlight aggressive Israeli actions, including the attack on Qatar in September, galvanized regional powers and forced a united front. The Gulf states, Turkey, and even European nations, recognizing the escalating threat to their own security, rallied around Qatar and demanded a re-engagement with a viable path towards de-escalation. This pressure, evidenced by Trump’s recent meeting with eight Arab states, appears to have compelled a more engaged approach, with his credibility now directly tied to the outcome.

The Emerging Arab-European Alliance and the Two-State Solution

The growing alliance between Arab states, Turkey, and Europe represents a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape. These actors, increasingly concerned about regional instability and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, are actively pushing for a renewed focus on the two-state solution. They recognize that an indefinite occupation and the absence of a viable Palestinian state are unsustainable and will continue to fuel conflict. The return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza, while opposed by Israel, is seen as a crucial step towards relieving the burden of governance and security from external actors.

This renewed enthusiasm for diplomacy isn’t simply altruistic. No regional or international power wants to be perpetually entangled in the complexities of Gaza, particularly while Israel continues to pursue its expansionist policies in the West Bank. The desire for a stable, predictable future is driving a concerted effort to ensure that any agreement is both successful and leads to a broader political resolution.

Hamas’s Existential Crossroads and the Limits of Leverage

Hamas finds itself in an increasingly precarious position. Facing immense pressure from all sides, even from previously sympathetic nations like Qatar and Turkey, the organization is being urged to disarm. Its primary leverage – the hostages – is rapidly diminishing. The reality is sinking in: no external savior is coming. The question now is how far Hamas is willing to compromise its core principles, including its right to resist occupation, in order to secure the survival of the Palestinian people in Gaza.

This is a decision that will challenge the organization at its core. The fundamental imbalance of power, coupled with the unreliability of external guarantors, leaves Hamas with limited options. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether a path towards a sustainable peace can be forged, or whether the region is destined for a return to escalating violence.

The Future of Israeli-Palestinian Relations: A Test of U.S. Credibility

Ultimately, the durability of this ceasefire, and the prospects for a lasting peace, hinge on whether the United States – and specifically, Donald Trump – will exert genuine pressure on Israel to comply with any agreed-upon terms. Netanyahu has proven adept at navigating complex political landscapes and outmaneuvering his adversaries. He has demonstrated a willingness to exploit opportunities and abandon agreements when it suits his interests.

The international community is watching closely. A blatant disregard for the ceasefire agreement by Israel would likely trigger a significant backlash, with increased calls for punitive action. But experience suggests that only sustained pressure from the U.S. administration would be sufficient to compel compliance. The coming months will be a crucial test of U.S. credibility and its commitment to a just and lasting peace in the region. The Council on Foreign Relations provides ongoing analysis of the geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East.

What will be the long-term consequences of this fragile ceasefire? Share your predictions in the comments below!

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world

Rivalry in Unrest: China and the U.S. vie for Influence in a Turbulent Region

by Omar El Sayed - World Editor
written by Omar El Sayed - World Editor

China’s Middle East Strategy Shifts: From Trade Partner to Military Backer?

Table of Contents


A notable change appears to be underway in China’s approach to the Middle East, perhaps moving beyond a purely transactional relationship focused on commerce. For years, Beijing has publicly maintained its policy in the region centers on economic exchange – buying energy resources and selling manufactured goods.Tho, recent developments suggest a growing willingness to provide military assistance, especially to Iran, raising concerns about a new proxy competition with the United States.

A Ancient Outlook: ‘Buy and Sell’ No More?

Last year, discussions with officials in Hong Kong revealed a prevailing sentiment in Beijing: the Middle east is viewed primarily as a market and a source of essential resources. This perspective, echoed by many China analysts, prioritized regional stability to ensure uninterrupted trade flows. But reports surfacing since the cessation of hostilities between Israel and Iran in late June indicate a possible departure from this established stance, with data pointing to Beijing actively aiding tehran in rebuilding its military infrastructure.

Echoes of the Cold War

The current situation bears a striking resemblance to Cold War-era dynamics, where the Soviet Union routinely provided military aid to client states. The United States and Israel’s recent actions against Iran have created a vacuum that China appears eager to fill, ostensibly to protect its ample investments in the contry. This mirrors the historical pattern of superpowers supporting allies to counterbalance opposing forces.

Economic Interests and Geopolitical Competition

China’s core interests in the Middle East remain fundamentally economic. Securing a stable supply of energy, particularly oil, is paramount. As the world’s largest crude oil importer-consuming approximately 11.1 million barrels daily in 2024-China is heavily reliant on imports, with around 13 percent originating from Iran. This dependence is underscored by the 2021 agreement between China and Iran, a 25-year cooperation deal involving an estimated $400 billion in Chinese investment in exchange for a consistent oil supply.

Though, this economic imperative is increasingly intertwined with broader geopolitical ambitions. The rivalry between the United States and China extends far beyond the Middle East, encompassing issues related to Taiwan and regional influence in Asia. The Middle East thus becomes another arena for strategic competition, where Beijing aims to challenge Washington’s dominance.

Navigating Complex Alliances: Yemen and the Houthis

This competition is evident in the differing approaches to the challenges posed by the Houthis in Yemen. While both the U.S. and china share an interest in ensuring freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, their strategies diverge significantly. China has reportedly forged agreements with the Houthis to safeguard its shipping lines, while the U.S. has employed military force to deter attacks. This pragmatic approach allows Beijing to minimize negative public perception and potentially divert U.S. military resources away from Asia. China also leverages its base in Djibouti to monitor U.S. naval operations, potentially gaining valuable intelligence for future contingencies in the Taiwan Strait.

Exploiting Regional Tensions

Beijing has also capitalized on the U.S. support for israel following the October 7th attacks by Hamas.Taking a more critical stance towards Israel, China appears to be aiming to damage the U.S.’s global reputation, particularly in the Global south.This strategy, while relatively low-cost, serves to exacerbate tensions and create further divisions.

The Impact of Recent Conflicts

The brief military clash between Iran and Israel in June presented a setback for China. Israel’s successful military operations, backed by U.S. airstrikes, reinforced the U.S.-led security architecture in the region.This strengthened American influence,potentially encouraging Middle Eastern nations to maintain security ties with Washington rather then solely relying on China. Furthermore, the damage inflicted on Iran’s military capabilities necessitates chinese assistance for reconstruction, further deepening its involvement.

Country Primary Interest in Middle East Approach to Regional Conflicts
United States Energy security, regional stability, counter-terrorism Military intervention, alliances with regional partners
China Energy security, economic partnerships, trade routes Economic engagement, diplomatic negotiations, limited military aid

Did You Know?

China’s 2021 agreement with Iran included provisions for enhanced defense and security cooperation, suggesting a more comprehensive relationship than previously acknowledged.

pro Tip:

Understanding the historical context of Cold War proxy conflicts is crucial for interpreting the current dynamics in the Middle east.

Long-Term Implications

The evolving Chinese role in the Middle East has far-reaching implications for the region’s geopolitical landscape. It could lead to increased competition between the U.S. and China,potentially destabilizing existing alliances and creating new security challenges. The extent to wich China will continue to provide military support to Iran remains uncertain, but the current trend suggests a growing willingness to exert its influence beyond economic considerations.

The U.S. must carefully calibrate its response, balancing the need to maintain its own security interests with the potential for escalating tensions. Dialog and diplomacy will be crucial to prevent further deterioration of the regional security environment.

Frequently Asked Questions

  • What is driving China’s increased involvement in the Middle East? China’s shift is driven by a combination of economic interests, specifically securing energy supplies, and geopolitical ambitions to challenge U.S. influence.
  • How does China’s approach to the Houthis differ from that of the United States? China has reportedly reached agreements with the Houthis to protect its shipping lines, while the U.S. has used military force to counter their attacks.
  • what is the meaning of the 2021 China-Iran agreement? The agreement represents a long-term commitment to economic and security cooperation, including a $400 billion investment in Iran in exchange for discounted oil.
  • Is China’s growing role in the Middle East a threat to U.S. interests? China’s actions presents a clear challenge to U.S. influence and could potentially destabilize the region.
  • How did the recent Israel-iran conflict impact China’s strategy? The conflict set back China’s objectives by strengthening the U.S.-led order and necessitating assistance to rebuild Iran’s military capabilities.

What are your thoughts on China’s evolving role in the Middle East? Share your perspective in the comments below.



how do the differing approaches of the U.S. and China regarding humanitarian intervention, as seen in conflicts like ethiopia’s Tigray region, impact conflict resolution efforts?

Rivalry in Unrest: China and the U.S. vie for Influence in a Turbulent Region

The Shifting geopolitical Landscape

The intensifying competition between the United States and China isn’t confined to economic tariffs or technological dominance. It’s playing out dramatically in regions experiencing political instability, offering a complex interplay of strategic interests, resource control, and ideological clashes. This rivalry is exacerbating existing conflicts and creating new challenges for international diplomacy. Key regions witnessing this struggle for influence include the Middle East, Africa, and increasingly, Latin America.Understanding the nuances of this competition is crucial for navigating the evolving global order. Terms like geopolitical competition, great power rivalry, and international relations are central to analyzing this dynamic.

Economic Investments as Leverage

Both the U.S. and China are employing economic tools to gain leverage in these turbulent regions.

China’s belt and Road Initiative (BRI): this massive infrastructure project is a cornerstone of China’s foreign policy, offering substantial investments in transportation, energy, and digital infrastructure across Africa, Asia, and Latin America. While presented as a development initiative, the BRI is widely seen as a means to expand China’s economic and political influence. Concerns surrounding debt-trap diplomacy and the sustainability of BRI projects are frequently raised.

U.S. Countermeasures: The U.S. has responded with initiatives like the Build Back Better World (B3W) partnership, aiming to provide option financing for infrastructure projects, emphasizing sustainability and clarity. Though, B3W has faced challenges in securing funding and matching the scale of the BRI. Foreign aid, infrastructure investment, and economic sanctions are key instruments in this economic contest.

Resource Control: Access to critical minerals and energy resources is a significant driver of both countries’ engagement. China’s demand for resources fuels it’s investments in African nations rich in cobalt, lithium, and other essential materials. The U.S. seeks to maintain its access to oil and gas reserves in the Middle East and diversify its supply chains.

Military Presence and Security Alliances

Beyond economics, military presence and security alliances are vital components of the U.S.-China rivalry.

U.S. Military Footprint: The U.S. maintains a significant military presence in the Middle East, with bases in countries like Qatar and Bahrain, and conducts regular naval exercises in the South China Sea. These deployments are framed as necessary for regional stability and counter-terrorism efforts. Military alliances, defense spending, and naval power are defining features of U.S. strategy.

China’s Growing Military Capabilities: China is rapidly modernizing its military, including its navy, and expanding its presence in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean. While China doesn’t have the same network of overseas military bases as the U.S., it is establishing logistical facilities in countries like Djibouti. Military modernization, naval expansion, and strategic partnerships characterize China’s approach.

Arms Sales: Both countries are major arms suppliers, further entrenching their influence in regional conflicts. The U.S. is a primary arms provider to countries like Saudi Arabia and Israel, while China is increasing its arms sales to nations in Africa and Asia. Arms trade,defense industry,and regional security are interconnected aspects of this competition.

Proxy Conflicts and Regional Instability

The U.S.-China rivalry frequently enough manifests through proxy conflicts and exacerbates existing regional instabilities.

Yemen: The conflict in Yemen has become a proxy battleground, with the U.S. supporting Saudi Arabia and China maintaining close ties with Iran, a key backer of the Houthi rebels. This dynamic complicates efforts to resolve the humanitarian crisis and achieve a lasting peace.

Sudan: Both the U.S. and China have significant economic interests in Sudan, and the recent conflict has created opportunities for both countries to exert influence. China’s investments in oil infrastructure and the U.S.’s focus on democratic transition create competing agendas.

* Ethiopia: The Tigray conflict in Ethiopia highlighted the differing approaches of the U.S. and China. The U.S. has been vocal in its criticism of human rights abuses, while China has prioritized non-interference and maintained economic ties with the Ethiopian government. Conflict resolution, humanitarian intervention, and political mediation are crucial areas where the rivalry plays out.

The Role of Technology and Digital Influence

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Israel-U.S. Cease-Fire Negotiations Stall Amidst Gaza Humanitarian Crisis

by Omar El Sayed - World Editor
written by Omar El Sayed - World Editor

Maldives-India Relations: Navigating Shifting Tides Amidst Regional Power Plays

New Delhi is actively seeking too bolster its diplomatic standing in the Indo-Pacific, with recent efforts focused on strengthening ties with the Maldives.This strategic push aims to counter growing Chinese influence in the region.the Maldives’ recent presidential election saw Ibrahim Muizzu elected on a platform that signaled a departure from the previous “India first” policy, advocating for closer engagement with Beijing and a move to reduce dependency on New Delhi.

The Maldives’ crucial location within the Indian Ocean makes its geopolitical alignment a significant concern for India. Despite the challenges posed by the new management’s pivot, New Delhi remains committed to improving bilateral relations, recognizing the long-term implications for regional stability and its own strategic interests. This ongoing diplomatic dance highlights the complex interplay of national interests and regional power dynamics shaping the Indo-pacific landscape.

Evergreen Insight: The Maldives’ strategic position underscores a fundamental principle in international relations: geography is destiny. Nations situated in critical maritime chokepoints or along vital trade routes often find themselves at the nexus of major power competition. Their alliances and foreign policy orientations can have a ripple effect on regional security and global trade. For nations observing these developments, understanding the geographical imperatives at play provides crucial context for interpreting diplomatic maneuvers and potential future conflicts or collaborations. The Maldives’ situation serves as a compelling case study of how small nations can become significant players in larger geopolitical strategies.

How might disagreements over security guarantees impact the long-term viability of a cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hamas?

Table of Contents

israel-U.S. Cease-Fire Negotiations Stall Amidst Gaza Humanitarian Crisis

The Breakdown in Talks & Rising Civilian Toll

Cease-fire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, mediated by the United States, have reportedly stalled as the humanitarian crisis in Gaza deepens. The primary sticking point remains the issue of a complete and verifiable withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza,coupled with guarantees for long-term security. Recent reports indicate a hardening of positions on both sides,fueled by escalating violence and a worsening situation for civilians trapped within the besieged territory. The U.S. State Department has expressed “deep concern” over the impasse, emphasizing the urgent need for a resolution to prevent further loss of life.

Key obstacles to a lasting truce include:

Disagreement on Security Guarantees: Hamas demands assurances that Israel will not re-enter Gaza, while Israel insists on maintaining some level of security control to prevent future attacks.

Release of Prisoners: The exchange of Israeli hostages held by Hamas for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel remains a complex and sensitive issue. Disagreements persist over the number and identity of prisoners to be released.

reconstruction of Gaza: The scale of destruction in Gaza is immense, and a comprehensive reconstruction plan, with international funding, is crucial for long-term stability. However, disagreements exist on how to ensure aid reaches civilians without being diverted by hamas.

The Escalating Humanitarian Crisis in Gaza

The humanitarian situation in Gaza is catastrophic. Months of intense fighting have left the territory devastated, with widespread destruction of infrastructure, including hospitals, schools, and homes. Access to essential services like water,electricity,and medical care is severely limited.

Here’s a snapshot of the current crisis:

  1. Food Insecurity: over 80% of Gaza’s population is facing acute food insecurity, with many relying on dwindling humanitarian aid.
  2. Healthcare Collapse: The healthcare system is on the brink of collapse, with hospitals overwhelmed by casualties and lacking essential supplies.
  3. Displacement: Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have been internally displaced, seeking refuge in overcrowded shelters and makeshift camps.
  4. Disease Outbreaks: The lack of sanitation and clean water is increasing the risk of disease outbreaks, especially among vulnerable populations.

International organizations, including the United Nations and the World Health Organization, have repeatedly warned of the dire consequences of the ongoing crisis and called for an immediate ceasefire to allow for the delivery of humanitarian aid. The term “Gaza humanitarian crisis” is trending globally, reflecting the growing international concern.

U.S. Mediation Efforts & Regional Implications

The United States has been actively involved in mediating a ceasefire agreement, working closely with Egypt and Qatar.However, its leverage appears to be diminishing as both Israel and hamas remain entrenched in their positions.The Biden management faces increasing pressure from both domestic and international actors to secure a resolution.

The stalled negotiations have broader regional implications:

Increased Regional Instability: The conflict risks escalating into a wider regional conflict, perhaps drawing in other actors like Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq.

Impact on U.S. Alliances: The U.S.’s close relationship with Israel is being tested by the growing international criticism of its military actions in Gaza.

Rise of Extremism: The humanitarian crisis and the perceived failure of diplomacy could fuel extremism and radicalization in the region.

Recent Developments: Drusen Involvement & Border Concerns (July 26, 2025)

Recent reports, as highlighted by Israelnetz, indicate a concerning development: Israeli Druze citizens attempting to cross the border into syria to assist their co-religionists amidst the ongoing conflict there. This highlights the complex regional dynamics and the potential for spillover effects from the Gaza crisis. The Syrian interim president has accused Israel of escalating tensions in the region. This situation adds another layer of complexity to the already fragile security landscape. this event underscores the interconnectedness of conflicts in the Middle east and the potential for unintended consequences.

The Role of International Law & Accountability

The ongoing conflict raises serious questions about compliance with international humanitarian law. Allegations of indiscriminate attacks,targeting of civilians,and restrictions on humanitarian access are being investigated by international bodies. The International Criminal Court (ICC) is also examining potential war crimes committed by both sides.

key legal considerations include:

Proportionality: Attacks must be proportionate to the military objective and avoid excessive harm to civilians.

Distinction: Combatants must distinguish between military targets and civilian objects.

Precautionary Measures: All feasible precautions must be taken to minimize harm to civilians.

Holding perpetrators of war crimes accountable is essential for achieving justice and deterring future violations. The pursuit of accountability remains a critical component of any lasting peace settlement.

Potential Pathways Forward: A Multi-faceted Approach

Breaking the current deadlock requires a multi-faceted approach that addresses the core concerns of all parties involved.

Possible steps include:

Phased Ceasefire: Implementing a phased ceasefire, with gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces and corresponding security guarantees from Hamas.

International Monitoring: Establishing an international monitoring mechanism to oversee the ceasefire and verify compliance.

**Re

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world

Wider War Unlikely: Expert Analysis

by Alexandra Hartman Editor-in-Chief
written by Alexandra Hartman Editor-in-Chief

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