El Salvador’s Authoritarian Model Goes Global: Bukele’s Expanding Influence

Montevideo, Uruguay – The rise of Nayib Bukele and his policies in el Salvador have sparked international discussions, especially concerning democratic values and human rights. Bukele’s strategies, initially seen as domestic solutions, are increasingly being viewed as a model that could influence leaders worldwide. This report analyzes the evolution and implications of Bukele’s approach.

Bukele’s Agreement With The U.S.

In a notable meeting at The White House, president Nayib Bukele and then-President Donald Trump discussed and joked about incarceration strategies while finalizing a controversial agreement.As per the agreement, The united States would provide El Salvador with $6 million annually to accommodate deportees, possibly including U.S.citizens, within its Center for Terrorism Confinement (CECOT), a highly scrutinized mega-prison. This agreement symbolized the progression of Bukele’s authoritarian governance, transforming it from a local practice into an exportable strategy for authoritarian leaders globally.

Shortly after President Trump’s inauguration, Bukele proposed to assist the U.S.in outsourcing its incarceration system. Quickly following this proposal, hundreds of deportees, including venezuelans, were transferred to CECOT utilizing the Alien Enemies Act of 1798. Among those deported was Kilmar Abrego García, a Salvadoran who had been living in Maryland for 15 years and had been granted protections by a U.S.immigration judge. Despite a Supreme Court order to facilitate his return, Bukele refused, stating he would not “smuggle a terrorist into the United States.” This situation highlighted the benefits Trump perceived in allying with a leader who, like himself, frequently enough bypassed established legal norms.

The Rise Of Authoritarianism In El Salvador

Bukele’s ascent to power began with his victory in the 2019 elections when he broke away from El Salvador’s traditional two-party dominance, securing 53.4% of the vote. His initial defiance of democratic principles was evident when the Legislative Assembly, led by the opposition, declined to approve a ample loan for his security and anti-gang initiatives. Bukele responded by mobilizing his supporters, along with the police and military, to pressure the legislators.

Did You Know? El Salvador’s homicide rate decreased by 98.2% between 2015 and 2024 as of President Bukele’s “Territorial Control Plan”.

In the 2021 legislative elections,Bukele’s party achieved a supermajority,granting him the power to enact laws and remove judges who had previously challenged his policies. He then appointed compliant replacements who sanctioned his bid for an unconstitutional second term.

A pivotal element of Bukele’s authoritarian agenda was the declaration of a state of emergency in March 2022, prompted by a surge in gang-related homicides.What began as a temporary measure has been repeatedly extended, evolving into a state where fundamental constitutional rights, including due process, legal defense, and freedom of assembly, are effectively suspended.

Bukele’s security strategy involves deploying security forces to apprehend alleged gang members, who are then subjected to life sentences in severely overcrowded prisons with restricted access to visits or rehabilitation programs. This approach has led to over 80,000 detentions without warrants, giving El Salvador the highest incarceration rate in the world. Even though gang activity has visibly decreased and the homicide rate has significantly dropped from 105 per 100,000 people in 2015 to 1.9 in 2024, earning Bukele high approval ratings and re-election with 85% of the vote, these gains have come at a steep cost to human rights.

Dismantling Institutions

Since his controversial re-election,Bukele has intensified his efforts to dismantle established institutions. On January 29, the Legislative Assembly approved a constitutional amendment that eliminates the need for constitutional changes to be ratified by two successive legislatures.This allows Bukele to alter the constitution without adequate consultation or debate, removing safeguards designed to protect essential constitutional principles, including those preventing presidential re-election.

The manipulation of the constitution has coincided with the capture of the judiciary. In September 2024, the Legislative Assembly appointed seven new Supreme Court judges despite widespread criticism from civil society, which cited a lack of procedural transparency and expressed concerns about the candidates’ independence.

Assault on Civic Space

The deterioration of civic space has been equally systematic,with the state intensifying its criminalization of activists. In March 2024,several organizations denounced the “criminalization” of mothers who were detained for protesting against abuses committed during the state of emergency.

The Bukele management has also implemented a series of restrictive laws targeting civil society organizations. Organizations receiving more than US$10,000 in international funding must register as “foreign agents”.

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Impact On Human Rights

Reports from human rights organizations indicate a severe decline in human rights protections under Bukele’s administration. Arbitrary arrests, prolonged detentions without trial, and instances of torture and ill-treatment in prisons have been documented. Freedom of the press has also been curtailed, with journalists facing increasing harassment and restrictions.

Political Analysis

Bukele’s policies have garnered both strong support and intense criticism. Supporters credit him with significantly reducing gang violence and improving public safety. Critics, though, argue that his methods undermine democratic institutions and human rights. The international community remains divided, with some nations cautiously supporting his efforts and others expressing deep concern over the erosion of democratic norms.

Here’s a summary of El Salvador’s key statistics:

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