Four years after launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has conceded it has not met its initial objectives, signaling a continuation of the conflict. The admission, made by Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Peskov on Tuesday, February 24, 2026, comes as the war enters its fifth year and underscores the protracted nature of the fighting. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, initiated on February 24, 2022, has dramatically reshaped the geopolitical landscape of Eastern Europe and beyond, prompting a reassessment of security alliances and international norms.

Peskov acknowledged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s assessment that Moscow’s aims since the start of the invasion have not been realized. However, he maintained that Russian forces have achieved their primary goal: “to ensure the safety of the people who live in the East of Ukraine and were in mortal danger.” This statement reflects the Kremlin’s long-held narrative of protecting Russian-speaking populations in the Donbas region, a justification widely disputed by Ukraine and its allies. The situation in eastern Ukraine remains a focal point of the conflict, with intense fighting continuing in key areas.

The Kremlin attributes the prolonged conflict to what it describes as direct interference from Western countries – specifically, the United States and nations in Europe – aiming to “crush” Russia. Peskov characterized the situation as a broader confrontation between Russia and the West, extending beyond the initial territorial objectives within Ukraine. This framing aligns with a consistent Kremlin narrative blaming external forces for escalating the conflict and hindering potential diplomatic resolutions.

Despite the lack of complete success, Russia remains open to achieving its goals through political and diplomatic means, Peskov stated. “No matter what, Russian interests will be guaranteed,” he affirmed, adding that Moscow has consistently maintained a willingness to engage in dialogue. However, he placed the onus for progress on “the actions of the Kyiv regime.” Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have been sporadic and largely unsuccessful since the early stages of the war, with fundamental disagreements over territorial integrity and security guarantees remaining unresolved.

Casualties and Control of Territory

Independent media reports suggest the Russian military has suffered significant losses during the four years of conflict, exceeding the duration of the Soviet Union’s participation in World War II. These reports estimate over 200,000 Russian military personnel have been lost, a figure that contrasts with the limited official data released by the Russian Ministry of Defense. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimates Russia has suffered 1.2 million casualties, including up to 325,000 deaths, between February 2022 and December 2025, representing the largest number of military casualties of any major power in a conflict since World War II CSIS Report. Ukraine is estimated to have suffered between 500,000 and 600,000 military casualties, including up to 140,000 deaths, according to CSIS. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy recently stated that 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died in the war, with many still missing.

In 2022, Russia proclaimed the annexation of four Ukrainian regions – Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia – but has failed to fully control them. Kyiv retains control of more than one-fifth of Donetsk Oblast and approximately one-third of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. The stalled front lines and difficulties in advancing in these territories have been widely documented through satellite imagery and on-the-ground reports.

Domestic Impact and Shifting Narratives

Peskov also highlighted what he described as “phenomenal changes” within Russian society over the past four years, characterized by increased consolidation around President Vladimir Putin and a renewed sense of national unity. However, independent sources report a growing desire for an complete to hostilities among the Russian population, with polls indicating widespread war fatigue. This discrepancy between official narratives and public sentiment underscores the challenges facing the Kremlin in maintaining support for the ongoing conflict.

The invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022, has triggered the largest conflict in Europe since World War II, causing immense suffering for civilians and soldiers alike and fundamentally altering the post-Cold War security order. The war has resulted in widespread destruction, displacement, and a humanitarian crisis, with millions of Ukrainians forced to flee their homes. The conflict has also led to significant economic consequences, including disruptions to global supply chains and increased energy prices.

What to Watch Next

As the war enters its fifth year, the prospects for a swift resolution remain uncertain. Russia’s continued commitment to achieving its objectives, coupled with the unwavering support of Western allies for Ukraine, suggests the conflict is likely to persist. The focus will likely remain on the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine, where intense fighting continues. The potential for escalation, including the use of more advanced weaponry, remains a significant concern. The ongoing diplomatic efforts, though currently stalled, will be crucial in seeking a path towards a negotiated settlement.

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