It is like a painting divided in two, in unequal but equally intense parts. A new electoral survey measured the vote potential of the main candidates and Cristina Kirchner finished with a very high floor for the 2023 presidential election. In contrast, her B-side leaves her vulnerable for that contest, for an even deeper rejection.
The data that advances Clarion this Saturday they are from Zuban Córdoba. These are two consultancies that were associated some time ago. The first, more dedicated to consumption and business; the second, by the well-known analyst Gustavo Córdoba, linked to politics. They currently have clients on both sides of the rift.
Between November 17 and 21, the firm carried out a survey of 1,300 cases throughout the country, with +/- 2.71% margin of error. The 30-page report accessed by this newspaper also included some data on the general situation and images of the leaders.
According to the economic and social moment of the country, the statistical scenario is very complex for the ruling party. Although its numbers in this study slightly improved compared to previous months, the disapproval of the Government’s management, to cite a case, continues in dark red: 66.1% of those surveyed question the Fernández administration.
Even more critical, 72.8% directly believe that the country is going “in the wrong direction.” And the personal images of the official supporters remain with a high negative balance: Cristina Kirchner, +35.5% and -61.9%; Alberto Fernández, + 34.1% and – 64%; Sergio Massa, + 33.3% and – 59.7%.
Electoral floors and ceilings
Then comes the electoral chapter, with the most attractive numbers. There, the survey assesses what is known as floors and ceilings of voting intention. How many people would “sure” support this or that candidate, how many “could” do it and how many “would never do it”.
Eight leaders/candidates pass through this filter. Five from the opposition and three from the ruling party. Zuban Córdoba los sort by their “ceiling”: the sum of the sure vote and the probable vote. With that logic, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta finishes first.
The Buenos Aires head of governmentalways according to the data from this survey, combines 21% sure vote and 38.3% probable. so, your “the ceiling” up to 59,3%. He completes his electoral x-ray with 27.7% rejection (“I would never vote for him”) and 13% “don’t know / doesn’t answer.”
If only the first item is analyzed, the secure vote/floor, the best one is clearly the vice president, who reaches almost 30 points (29.3%). She is a point guard that, as this newspaper already explained, makes her unbeatable for an inmate and leaves her with a high chance of getting into a ballot.
But precisely in that potential second round is the Achilles heel of the former president. Why? Because that very high floor of safe voting is complemented by a probable vote of only 9.6% (what stretches its ceiling to 38.9%) and with a rejection of 56.4% (in addition to 4.7% of “ns/nc”).
With these numbers, in the table of Zuban Córdoba, the vice finishes fourth. Between her and Larreta stand Patricia Bullrich and Sergio Massa.
– The PRO holderwith 22.7% of the floor, 51.3% ceiling (adding 28.6% of probable vote) and 38.7% rejection.
– The Economy Ministerwith 14.4% floor, 39.8% ceiling (adding 25.4% of the probable vote) and 48.6% rejection.
The second quatrain It also has interesting numbers. It is headed by the governor of Jujuy, the radical Gerardo Moraleswith 7.2% floor, 36.7% ceiling (29.5% probable vote) and 37.1% rejection. The also holder of the UCR continues with a relatively high “does not know / does not answer”: 26.2%.
Below are accommodated:
– Mauricio Macri: 15.3% of floor, 36.2% ceiling (20.9% probable vote) and 55.2% rejection.
– Facundo Manes: 6.1% floor, 31.3% ceiling (25.2% likely vote) and 38.7% rejection. It also maintains a high “don’t know / no answer” rating, with 30.1%.
– Alberto Fernandez: 5.9% floor, 24.3% ceiling (18.4% probable vote) and 68.9% rejection.