Gaza – Hamas is preparing to announce a new political leader during the upcoming month of Ramadan, a move that comes as the organization navigates a critical juncture following significant leadership losses and ongoing negotiations regarding the future of Gaza. The announcement, expected within weeks, will determine the direction of the Palestinian militant group as it faces evolving political and security challenges.
The internal elections within Hamas are focused on selecting a successor to lead the organization, following the deaths of numerous senior figures in Israeli strikes since the October 7, 2023 attacks on Israel, in which approximately 1,200 people were killed and 251 others taken hostage. The choice of a new leader is particularly significant as mediators, including the United States, discuss post-war governance of Gaza, reconstruction efforts, and the future status of armed groups in the region. A US-backed ceasefire in Gaza came into effect in October, and negotiations continue over the deal’s later phases.
Contenders for Leadership
Two candidates have emerged as frontrunners in the leadership contest: Khalil al-Hayya, currently serving as the temporary chairman, and Khaled Meshal, who previously held the position until 2017. Both al-Hayya and Meshal are currently residing in Qatar. According to the BBC, voting has already taken place in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, with delegates also participating from Hamas’s members elsewhere. The new leader will serve a one-year term.
Khaled Meshaal, described as part of Hamas’s “classic guard,” has previously led the group. Khalil al-Hayya is considered a hardliner, according to reports. The Guardian notes that the new leader will face crucial decisions, including how far to cooperate with a US-sponsored peace plan and whether to disarm.
Implications for Gaza and Peace Negotiations
The selection of a new leader comes at a pivotal moment for Hamas and the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Under the terms of a proposed US plan, Hamas would have no role in the future governance of Gaza, with eventual control being handed over to the Palestinian Authority, which currently administers parts of the West Bank, after undergoing reforms. However, the new leader’s stance on these negotiations and potential cooperation with the US plan will be a key factor in determining the future trajectory of the conflict.
The BBC reports that people in Gaza have already cast their votes in secret, but the process’s conclusion elsewhere remains unclear. The outcome of the election may signal which direction the movement intends to take, particularly as the US and other mediators discuss post-war governance of Gaza, reconstruction efforts and the future status of armed groups there.
Much of the Hamas leadership has been killed in the ongoing military campaign, with figures like Yahya Sinwar, the former Gaza Hamas leader, and Mohammed Deif, its military chief, among those killed. This leadership vacuum adds further weight to the importance of the upcoming announcement.
What to Watch Next
The coming weeks will be critical as Hamas finalizes its leadership transition and prepares for the announcement during Ramadan. The new leader’s initial statements and actions will be closely watched by regional and international actors, as they seek to understand the organization’s future direction and its willingness to engage in peace negotiations. The announcement will also be a key indicator of Hamas’s internal dynamics and its ability to adapt to the changing political landscape.
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