Southeast Queensland’s Growth: Beyond the 2032 Olympics, a Housing Affordability Crisis Looms
Imagine a future where a comfortable family home in Southeast Queensland (SEQ) feels like a distant dream for many. It’s not a dystopian fantasy, but a very real possibility as the region races towards a population of 4.5 million by the time Brisbane hosts the 2032 Olympics. While economic growth surges, a critical imbalance between population growth and housing supply is brewing, threatening to exacerbate existing affordability challenges and reshape the very fabric of communities.
The Population Boom: More Than Just Olympic Hype
Recent analysis by KPMG, based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data, reveals SEQ’s population has grown at a rate of 2.2% over the past five years – significantly outpacing the national average of 1.5%. This isn’t solely driven by local births; a substantial influx of residents from across Australia, particularly from Sydney and Melbourne, is fueling the expansion. As KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley notes, the appeal extends beyond major cities, drawing people from regional centers like Darwin and Cairns seeking opportunity and lifestyle.
The forecast isn’t slowing down either. Projections suggest SEQ’s population could reach five million by 2036. This growth, however, isn’t evenly distributed. While Brisbane remains a key destination, over half the new residents are settling in the surrounding areas – the Gold Coast (68,000 new residents), Logan and Beaudesert (61,000), Ipswich (51,600), and the Sunshine Coast (47,500) are experiencing particularly rapid expansion.
The Push to the Periphery: Ipswich and Logan as Growth Hotspots
The story of Trinity and James McNicol exemplifies this trend. Trading a small inner-city Brisbane Queenslander for a four-bedroom house and 100 acres in Ipswich, they found the space and lifestyle they craved without sacrificing their city jobs. “We can combine what we love outside of work… have a bit more space,” Trinity explains. This shift reflects a broader pattern: as Brisbane’s inner suburbs become increasingly expensive, families and individuals are being priced out and pushed towards more affordable, outer-growth areas like Ipswich and Logan.
Key Takeaway: The SEQ growth story isn’t just about overall population increase; it’s about a geographic shift driven by affordability, with significant implications for infrastructure and community planning.
Interstate Migration: A Slowing Trend?
While interstate migration remains a key driver, the flow from Sydney to Brisbane has begun to decelerate over the last three years, coinciding with rising property prices in Queensland. Data from Cotality shows Brisbane unit prices rose 2.2% in November and house prices grew 1.8%, with a 12.8% increase over the past year. The city’s median home value now sits at $1,015,767 – the second highest in the country, trailing only Sydney.
REA Group senior economist Eleanor Creagh points to a “silver lining” – the pace of growth is no longer accelerating. However, she emphasizes the core problem: “The supply of new housing is certainly not keeping up with the demand at the moment.” This fundamental imbalance continues to exert upward pressure on prices.
The Affordability Crisis: A Vicious Cycle for Vulnerable Residents
The escalating cost of housing isn’t just impacting potential homebuyers; it’s creating a severe rental crisis. The Queensland Council of Social Services’ (QCOSS) 2025 living affordability report, based on a survey of over 1,000 respondents, identifies rising rental prices as the most significant cost pressure on household budgets.
The story of Logan Bell, a single mother forced to sleep rough while working two jobs and studying, is a stark illustration of this reality. Despite her efforts, she spent 50% of her income on rent after finally securing accommodation with a roommate. “It was devastating… there are so many other disadvantaged families like myself,” she recounts. QCOSS CEO Aimee McVeigh highlights the near impossibility for low-income families to secure affordable rentals given current vacancy rates.
Christopher John, CEO of Logan-based support service YFS, paints a grim picture: rent in Logan has increased by 69% in just four years, rising from $350 to $590 per week. This disproportionately impacts the 149,000 Logan residents in the lowest 20% of income earners.
Did you know? The current rental vacancy rate in many SEQ regions is below 1%, creating intense competition and driving up prices.
Looking Ahead: What Can Be Done?
The challenges facing SEQ are complex and require a multi-faceted approach. Simply building more houses isn’t enough. Strategic planning must prioritize diverse housing options, including social and affordable housing, to cater to a range of income levels. Increased investment in public transport infrastructure is crucial to connect outer-growth areas to employment hubs and reduce reliance on private vehicles.
Furthermore, innovative solutions are needed to address the supply chain bottlenecks hindering construction. Exploring alternative building materials and streamlining approval processes could accelerate the delivery of new housing.
Expert Insight: “We need to move beyond a solely market-driven approach to housing and embrace policies that prioritize social equity and affordability,” says Dr. Sarah Thompson, a housing policy expert at Griffith University.
Dr. Thompson emphasizes the importance of long-term planning and collaboration between government, developers, and community organizations.
The Role of the 2032 Olympics
The 2032 Olympics present both an opportunity and a risk. While the Games will undoubtedly stimulate economic growth and attract investment, they also risk exacerbating the existing housing crisis if not managed carefully. Infrastructure projects associated with the Olympics should prioritize long-term benefits for all residents, not just those directly involved in the event.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Will property prices in SEQ continue to rise indefinitely?
A: While growth is expected to continue, the pace is likely to moderate. However, the fundamental imbalance between supply and demand suggests prices will remain elevated for the foreseeable future.
Q: What are the best areas to invest in SEQ?
A: Ipswich, Logan, and the Sunshine Coast are currently experiencing strong growth, but investors should carefully consider factors like infrastructure development and local employment opportunities.
Q: What support is available for renters struggling with affordability?
A: QCOSS and other community organizations offer a range of support services, including financial assistance, advocacy, and referrals to emergency accommodation. See QCOSS website for more information.
Q: How will the 2032 Olympics impact housing affordability?
A: The Olympics could accelerate price increases if not managed effectively. Increased investment in affordable housing and infrastructure is crucial to mitigate this risk.
The future of Southeast Queensland hinges on addressing the looming housing affordability crisis. Without proactive and innovative solutions, the dream of a vibrant and inclusive region for all could become increasingly out of reach. What steps do you think are most critical to ensure a sustainable and equitable future for SEQ?
Explore more insights on urban planning and sustainable development in our latest report. For further information on Queensland’s economic outlook, see our guide on Queensland’s economic forecast.
