Rewind and Reconnoiter

The U.S. Military faces a critical shortfall in air defense munitions, potentially jeopardizing its ability to respond to multiple conflicts simultaneously, according to a recent assessment by Jennifer Kavanaugh, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Kavanaugh’s remarks, made in an interview with War on the Rocks, revisit arguments she and Jordan Cohen first place forward in 2023, warning of tradeoffs in U.S. Military assistance.

In a 2023 article, Kavanaugh and Cohen cautioned that Washington should establish limits on military aid to Israel to ensure sufficient resources remain to deter China in the Indo-Pacific region. Now, three years later, Kavanaugh states the core dilemma has shifted. The central challenge is no longer simply prioritizing between aid recipients, but rather balancing the need to replenish dwindling U.S. Stockpiles with ongoing commitments to Ukraine, Israel, and other partners.

“The situation is much more serious now than it was when this article was originally written,” Kavanaugh said. “Back then, I was most concerned about tradeoffs between recipients of American military aid. Now, I think the central tradeoff is between the munitions and materiel the United States has available to restock its own depleted arsenals and what it can afford to deliver to partners like Israel, Taiwan, and Ukraine.”

Air defense interceptors are identified as the most pressing concern. Four years of aid to Ukraine, coupled with assistance to Israel during its recent 12-day war, have significantly reduced U.S. Reserves. Kavanaugh warns that the United States may lack sufficient munitions to defend its own forces in a major conflict, whether in Asia or the Middle East. Despite this, the flow of air defense munitions continues to partners, hindering efforts to rebuild U.S. Supplies and potentially impacting aid to Taiwan.

The concerns echo a report from Politico from October 2023, which highlighted shortages of systems required by Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. The issue was also discussed in a Castbox podcast featuring Kavanaugh and Cohen in November 2023, where they elaborated on the implications of their original article.

The erosion of Iran’s influence over its regional proxies is accelerating, a year after assessments indicated a significant weakening of its “gray zone” strategy, according to geopolitical analyst Farzin Zandi. The shift follows a 12-day war that diminished Iran’s perceived invulnerability and prompted increased pressure from host governments on Iranian-backed groups.

Zandi, who in January 2025 authored an article titled “How Iran Lost Before It Lost: The Roll Back of its Gray Zone Strategy,” observed that the weakening of Iran’s deterrent credibility has led to a decline in morale among proxy groups, who previously believed Tehran was shielded from substantial repercussions. “Many of these actors long assumed Iran was strategically insulated from serious costs; recent events have decisively shattered that belief,” Zandi wrote in an analysis revisited following the recent developments.

Financing for these proxies, historically linked to Iran’s oil revenues, remains a critical vulnerability. While Iran continues to employ a sophisticated sanctions-evasion infrastructure to provide financial, training, and logistical support, arms transfers have become increasingly difficult, particularly for Hezbollah, facing pressure from Israel and the Lebanese state. Recent volatility in Iran’s oil sales, triggered by disruptions in oil-trading networks, has further exacerbated the situation, contributing to currency depreciation and widespread protests within Iran.

The internal crisis within Iran – marked by escalating protests, reported mass killings, and growing international condemnation, including consideration of terrorist designations for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – is compounding the structural constraints faced by its proxies. This is further complicated by increased regional competition, according to Zandi’s analysis.

Zandi specializes in Middle Eastern politics and Iran’s gray zone strategies, currently serving as a PhD student and research assistant in political science at the University of Kansas. His master’s project at the University of Tehran focused on clarifying the role of the “gray zone” in US-Iran geopolitical strategy post-Iraq War. He has also published work examining Iran’s geopolitical strategy through a geographical lens, focusing on the concepts of the “Gray Zone” and “Axis of Resistance.”

The future viability of these proxy groups hinges on their ability to secure alternative funding streams as Iran’s support diminishes. Whether they will be able to do so remains an open question.