The outcomes of the October 27 general election in Japan have disrupted political calculations within one of the world’s leading economies, a member of the G-7. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) faced a significant decline in its representation, plummeting from 256 seats to a mere 191 in the 465-seat House of Representatives, while its coalition partner, Komeito, also saw a reduction, falling from 32 to 24 seats. This dramatic shift has left the ruling coalition without a parliamentary majority, marking a potential turning point in Japanese politics. The LDP, which has dominated Japanese politics for much of the last sixty years, has been experiencing a steady erosion of public trust, particularly in the wake of Shinzo Abe’s resignation in 2020 and subsequent assassination in 2022. Despite initially earning sympathy following Abe’s tragic death, his successor Fumio Kishida encountered growing criticism, especially over the LDP’s alleged connections to the controversial Korean Unification Church and a fundraising scandal involving party lawmakers, which ultimately led to his resignation earlier this year. This set the stage for a party election, wherein experienced leader and former Defence Minister Shigeru Ishiba emerged victorious. The underlying issue contributing to these electoral losses is the nation’s sluggish economic growth, exacerbated by an ageing population that presents no simple solutions. As Mr. Ishiba, who assumed leadership on October 1, endeavors to secure the numbers ahead of the opening Diet session on Monday, the success of his efforts remains uncertain. The main opposition party, the left-of-center Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), has capitalized on the ruling coalition’s missteps, increasing its representation from 98 to 148 seats and aiming to attract coalition partners and independent lawmakers to establish the next government. The internal conflict within the LDP has further weakened its position, with various factions placing blame for the electoral defeat, the campaign slush-fund “Uragane” scandal, and Mr. Ishiba’s decision to call for a snap election.
No matter what the outcome of the Diet session is, it is clear that the government will be shaky, affecting Japan’s global imprint at a time when it is much needed. Japan’s moderating influence on the U.S., where the presidential elections could throw up a rocky result, may also be missed. Japan’s regional rivals, Russia, China and North Korea, will be watching for signs of weakness in Japan’s defence posture, given their concerns over Mr. Ishiba’s proposal of an “Asian NATO”. For India, the bilateral relationship with Japan is among the most steadfast pillars of foreign policy. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is to visit Japan next month for the annual summit, but given the political developments, it might have to be postponed. This could put many important negotiations, including the one over the troubled Bullet Train-Shinkansen project on hold. Plans for India-Japan joint projects across the Indo-Pacific and South Asian countries (Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Africa), as a part of the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor, will be delayed further. This would, however, be only a matter of time rather than policy thrust, as like in India, there is bipartisan support in Japan for the importance of ties between the two countries.
Published – November 06, 2024 12:10 am IST
**Interview with Political Analyst Dr. Hiroshi Tanaka on the Recent Japanese Election**
**Interviewer:** Thank you for joining us today, Dr. Tanaka. The results from Japan’s October 27 general election have certainly turned the political landscape upside down. Can you provide us with an overview of the election’s outcomes?
**Dr. Tanaka:** Certainly. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has been a dominant force in Japanese politics for decades, saw a dramatic decline in its representation, dropping from 256 seats to just 191 in the 465-seat House of Representatives. Their coalition partner, Komeito, also lost seats, which leaves the coalition without a parliamentary majority. This is a significant shift in power dynamics for Japan.
**Interviewer:** What do you think contributed to such a remarkable decline in the LDP’s fortunes?
**Dr. Tanaka:** Several factors have played a role. For one, public trust in the LDP has been eroded, especially following the controversies surrounding former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, including the scandal involving connections to the Korean Unification Church and other fundraising issues. Additionally, the country’s stagnant economic growth and an ageing population have created social challenges that the government has struggled to address effectively.
**Interviewer:** With Shigeru Ishiba stepping into the role of party leader, what challenges do you foresee as he attempts to navigate this new political landscape?
**Dr. Tanaka:** Ishiba is in a difficult position. Firstly, he must quickly seek new coalition partners to regain some form of parliamentary majority. Furthermore, he faces the challenge of rebuilding public trust in the party and addressing the economic issues that plague the country. His leadership style is respected, but he will need to demonstrate decisive action to steer the LDP back on course.
**Interviewer:** The main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), also seems to be gaining momentum. What does this mean for future governance in Japan?
**Dr. Tanaka:** The CDP’s rise indicates a shift in voter sentiment, reflecting a demand for change. They are now in a stronger position to challenge the LDP’s agenda and can leverage public dissatisfaction for greater influence in the Diet. This could lead to a more competitive political environment and complicate governance for the ruling parties moving forward.
**Interviewer:** The upcoming Diet session will be crucial. What are the implications of this election on future policy initiatives?
**Dr. Tanaka:** The implications are significant. Ishiba will need to prioritize pressing economic reform initiatives and address social issues, such as healthcare and pensions for the ageing population. Moreover, he must build consensus across party lines to secure any meaningful legislation. The recent election outcome signals that the electorate is closely watching how their leaders address these challenges.
**Interviewer:** Thank you, Dr. Tanaka, for sharing your insights on this pivotal moment in Japanese politics.
**Dr. Tanaka:** Thank you for having me. It’s a critical time for Japan, and the political choices made now will shape the nation’s future for years to come.