The Shifting Sands of the South Caucasus: How Russia’s Weakness Could Usher in an Era of Peace
For decades, the South Caucasus has been a geopolitical pressure cooker, largely controlled by Moscow’s influence. But a dramatic shift is underway. Russia’s preoccupation with its war in Ukraine has created a power vacuum, and Azerbaijan, backed by strategic alliances, is boldly stepping forward to redefine the regional order. This isn’t just a local story; it’s a bellwether for the future of Russia’s waning influence in its near abroad, and a potential blueprint for resolving other protracted conflicts in the post-Soviet space.
Russia’s Fading Grip: A History of Control
Russia’s historical dominance over the South Caucasus – encompassing Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia – stems from its legacy as the successor state to the Soviet Union. Moscow has consistently viewed the region as its sphere of influence, resorting to military intervention (Georgia in 2008, Ukraine since 2014) and political pressure to maintain control. This pattern extended to the decades-long conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, where Russia positioned itself as a ‘peacekeeper’ – a role often used to perpetuate its leverage. However, the Ukraine war has fundamentally altered this dynamic.
Azerbaijan’s Rise: Resilience and Strategic Partnerships
What sets Azerbaijan apart is its ability to challenge Russia’s authority. Unlike Armenia and Georgia, Azerbaijan possesses significant economic and military strength, fueled by its energy resources and a modernized military honed during the 2020 Second Karabakh War. Crucially, Baku has cultivated strong partnerships with Türkiye and Israel, providing it with vital political and military support independent of Moscow. This resilience allowed Azerbaijan to decisively reassert control over Nagorno-Karabakh following Russia’s diminished presence, fundamentally altering the conflict’s landscape.
The Zangezur Corridor: A Potential Catalyst for Cooperation
The future of the Zangezur corridor – a proposed transport route connecting mainland Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhichevan – is central to this evolving dynamic. Initially sought by Russia as a means of control, the corridor now represents a potential pathway to regional connectivity and economic integration. If realized, it could link Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Türkiye, fostering cooperation and diminishing the need for external intervention. This shift highlights how Russia’s weakening grip is creating opportunities for previously unimaginable collaboration.
Armenia’s Western Turn: Breaking with Moscow
Perhaps the most significant development is Armenia’s growing estrangement from Russia. For over three decades, Armenia relied heavily on Russian support. However, under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Yerevan is actively seeking closer ties with the European Union and the United States. This pivot, while fraught with challenges, offers Armenia a path towards greater sovereignty and self-determination. Russia’s attempts to destabilize Armenia through support for opposition groups have so far proven largely ineffective, demonstrating the growing desire for change within Armenian society.
The Implications for Regional Stability
The combined shift of Azerbaijan and Armenia away from Moscow’s orbit has the potential to reshape the South Caucasus profoundly. If Georgia also continues to consolidate its independence, the region could emerge from decades of conflict and instability. Recent meetings between Aliyev and Pashinyan, notably without Russian mediation, signal a willingness to negotiate directly and forge a lasting peace. The trilateral talks hosted by President Trump in Washington, DC, further underscore the growing international interest in supporting a peaceful resolution.
Russia’s Countermoves and the Path Forward
Russia is not passively accepting this changing landscape. Moscow is attempting to exert pressure on Azerbaijan indirectly and actively working to undermine Pashinyan’s government in Armenia. However, these efforts are increasingly hampered by Russia’s limited resources and the growing determination of both Baku and Yerevan to chart their own course.
The key to sustaining this momentum lies in robust international support. The US and EU should prioritize diplomatic engagement, economic assistance, and security cooperation to help Armenia and Azerbaijan solidify a lasting peace. This support should focus on fostering trust, promoting economic integration, and addressing the root causes of the conflict, rather than attempting to impose a solution. A lasting peace won’t be dictated from outside; it must be built from within.
The South Caucasus is at a pivotal moment. The weakening of Russia’s influence presents a rare opportunity to break the cycle of conflict and build a more stable and prosperous future for the region. Seizing this opportunity requires a concerted effort from both regional actors and the international community. What steps will the US and EU take to ensure this fragile peace takes root?
