MEXICO CITY.— Last Friday, the consulting firm Integralia released a special report on the presidential elections in the United States and its impact on the relationship with Mexico.

In its executive summary, the firm points out that the race for US presidential elections., which will take place next Tuesday, November 5among the democratic candidate, Kamala Harrisand the Republican candidate, Donald Trumpare practically tied.

Therefore, regardless of who wins, the future of the bilateral relationship between the US and Mexico “looks complicated.”

Among the issues that Integralia highlights in this complex environment are migration, security and containing the rise of China. Mentions the next review of the T-MEC in 2026; There are also “certain risks looming for the global business environment,” according to the firm.

In the electoral contest, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be at stake, as well as a third of the seats in the Senate. According to the summary, “Republicans have an advantage in the Senate,
Well, there are more Democratic seats in dispute,” and “the race for the House of Representatives looks very close.”

The consulting company also warns about “the risk of a post-electoral conflict brewing.”

Decisive factors for the presidential election

According to the Integralia document, the factors that can define the result of the election are the following:

Key themes

The economy continues to be the main issue for almost eight out of ten voters, according to the American analysis company Gallup, followed by migration, mainly among Republicans, while Democrats prioritize social issues such as abortion and racial inequality.

States of Rust Belt

The hinge states (Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) are key to deciding the presidential election; However, on this occasion, the states of the Rust Belt, also known as the manufacturing belt, (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) will be the most decisive.

Integralia’s analysis considers that, “If any of the two parties manages to win the three states, it is almost certain that they will win the election. If the Democrats do not win at least two, it is very difficult for them to achieve victory.”

Vote of the working class and the lower middle class

In these sectors are the bulk of undecided voters according to surveys, highlights Integralia, and points out that the Democratic Party has lost supporters in these sectors while the Republicans have capitalized on this disenchantment.

Women’s vote

Kamala Harris’ campaign has caused enthusiasm among various sectors of women. An unusually high participation of women could decide the election in favor of the Democratic candidate, the consulting company points out.

Young vote

The document points out that, “The high participation of this sector in 2024 would once again favor the Democrats. His abstentionism would benefit the Republicans.”

Hidden vote

There is fear that this phenomenon will occur again, as it happened in 2016. If this is the case, the “hidden vote” in favor of Trump could be higher than what the polls show today.

It also mentions aspects such as the preferences of other important demographic groups, as well as unexpected and circumstantial events that could occur during the last month of the electoral campaigns.

The battle for Congress

“All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be at stake, as well as a third of the seats in the Senate (33 out of 100),” says Integralia.

He adds that, “Both chambers play a crucial role in US decision-making and international politics, especially with countries like Mexico that maintain a close relationship with the United States,” and proposes an analysis of the implications depending on the party that obtains the majority in either chamber:

Implementation of the Executive agenda

Democrats have promoted the implementation of their progressive agenda that includes social rights, labor reforms and actions to fight climate change, while Republicans would prioritize tax cuts and border security.

Trade

Both Democrats and Republicans have sought to impose tariffs on products from countries such as China, Russia and Vietnam; Therefore, if the Republicans win the legislative elections they could elevate these proposals to a “trade war”, while the Democrats could raise the environmental and labor requirements for trade, in both cases it would impact Mexican exports in sectors such as steel. or the automotive.

Environment

According to the document, “Democrats will promote policies that seek to combat climate change,” which would put some pressure on Mexico’s possible non-compliance with the USMCA in that matter, while Republicans could reduce environmental regulations and encourage the exploitation of natural resources for energy generation. This could be favorable for some industries
exporters in Mexico, although detrimental to others, as it could also encourage the production of goods made in the US.

Relationship with Mexico

Integralia believes that, “Republicans would seek to promote stricter and more unilateral immigration and security policies, while Democrats could have a more collaborative approach on issues such as trade, migration and security.

The future of the bilateral relationship

In its document, Integralia proposes that Claudia Sheuinbaum’s government could seek to “replicate AMLO’s model in the bilateral relationship”, however it considers that, “the entry of a new administration could change Washington’s tolerant attitude towards Mexico”, particularly, in aspects such as the “non-compliance with certain provisions of the USMCA, in areas such as transgenic corn or energy”, or, “the reform of the Judiciary” and the possible elimination of energy, competition and telecommunications regulatory bodies.

Structural challenges in the bilateral relationship

Containment of China

As China’s investments in Mexico grow, it is expected that
The United States increases pressure for the country to collaborate in reducing the influence of the Asian country in Latin America, which could affect key sectors of the Mexican economy and generate trade frictions.

Migration

Democrats and Republicans have been in favor of deportations and tightening the border.

Integralia believes that, “Sheinbaum’s administration could continue using this issue as a negotiating tool.”

Security

In its document, the consulting company points out that there are areas of cooperation and conflict on security issues and proposes two scenarios, one in which Mexico “reopens the channels of dialogue and collaboration with the US authorities in matters of intelligence” and, another in which “the priorities of Mexico and the United States in terms of security could be different”; and highlights that, “if Trump wins, unusual unilateral actions cannot be ruled out, such as the incursion of drones or elite military forces to combat criminal groups.”

It should be added that, “among Washington’s political and economic circles, concern and interest in Morena’s constitutional reforms (the so-called Plan C) have grown,” Integralia highlights.

And he assures that, “the review of the USMCA in 2026 is undoubtedly the most important issue and one that causes the greatest uncertainty in the bilateral relationship.”

“No matter what happens in the US presidential election, these structural challenges will persist,” says Integralia. “If Donald Trump wins, each and every bilateral challenge will worsen,” the document states.

While, “If Harris wins, the main risk is that she seeks to carry out a more aggressive redistributive policy, which could lead to a cooling of the US economy.”

Possible post-election risks

That Trump does not accept the electoral result. On this occasion, the post-election crisis could even be more serious than that of 2020.

Ultra-polarized society and political stagnation. This election will deepen the enormous polarization that prevails in the United States. This
Polarization makes collaboration between Democrats and Republicans almost impossible.

Deepening the dismantling of the liberal international order: a second Trump presidency would deepen the process of erosion of liberal democracy and the rise of nationalist populism around the world.

Trump’s abrupt and destabilizing decisions: If he returns to the White House, Trump would encounter far fewer checks than he faced in his first term.

Below is the full document of Integralia’s special report on the elections in the United States.

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