Sudan’s Shifting Sands: How the Capture of Bara Could Reshape the War and Trigger a Humanitarian Surge

Over 10 million people displaced. 24.6 million facing acute food insecurity. Sudan’s ongoing conflict, now in its third year, isn’t just a civil war – it’s a humanitarian catastrophe of unprecedented scale. But recent battlefield gains by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), particularly the capture of the strategic city of Bara in September, are signaling a potential turning point, one that could dramatically alter the conflict’s trajectory and exacerbate the already dire humanitarian situation.

The Strategic Importance of Bara and the Export Road

For two and a half years, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) held Bara, utilizing it as a crucial logistical hub and reinforcement point. Located 350km southwest of Khartoum along the vital “Export Road” to el-Obeid, the city controlled the flow of goods and supplies. This road isn’t just about commerce; it’s a lifeline connecting Khartoum to North Kordofan State, and from there, to South Sudan, eastern Sudan, and the conflict-ridden Darfur region. The SAF’s recapture of Bara, following the earlier seizure of el-Obeid in February and Khartoum in March, effectively secures the Export Road, providing a critical independent supply route for government forces.

Beyond Logistics: Reclaiming Kordofan’s Strategic Depth

The importance of controlling Kordofan extends beyond mere supply lines. Bara and el-Obeid represent the westernmost extent of SAF control, a crucial foothold east of el-Fasher, the last major city SAF holds in Darfur. The RSF’s grip on the territory between these points has allowed them to pressure SAF forces and maintain links to South Sudan, facilitating the movement of weapons and fighters. Losing Bara significantly weakens the RSF’s ability to sustain this pressure and maintain those critical supply lines. As analyst Akram Ali noted, the capture of el-Obeid “marked the beginning of their actual collapse” in the region.

How the SAF Seized the Advantage

The SAF offensive on Bara, launched on September 11th, exploited a key vulnerability in the RSF’s defenses. While the RSF concentrated their forces on the eastern side of the city, the SAF attacked from the south, utilizing continuous drone strikes to degrade RSF targets. The operation leveraged the mobility and speed of the Darfur Track Armed Struggle Movement, a specialized assault force originating from el-Obeid. According to sources within the military, the speed of the advance and the multi-pronged approach prevented the RSF from effectively reinforcing their defenses. Crucially, the operation enjoyed significant support from Bara’s civilian population, contributing to the RSF’s swift retreat.

The Shifting Alliances and the Future of South Kordofan

The RSF’s recent alliance with the Southern People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) in South Kordofan, particularly within the contested Abyei region and the isolated Nuba Mountains, presented a new challenge for the SAF. However, analysts believe this alliance is unlikely to offset the strategic disadvantage created by losing control of the Export Road. The reactivation of the SAF air base in el-Obeid, after two years of inactivity, is a game-changer. Political analyst Ahmed Shomokh emphasizes that this will “significantly [enhance] the logistical and combat capabilities of the Sudanese army,” bolstering their campaign to expel the RSF from Kordofan.

Darfur’s Fate Hangs in the Balance

The recapture of Kordofan is viewed as a crucial stepping stone towards liberating Darfur. SAF commanders believe the experience and personnel used to retake central Sudan and Khartoum can be effectively deployed to Kordofan and then westward. However, breaching the RSF’s defenses and lifting the siege of el-Fasher will be a formidable task. The humanitarian consequences of intensified fighting in Darfur, already a region grappling with immense suffering, are deeply concerning.

The Looming Humanitarian Crisis: A Cascade of Suffering

While the SAF’s military gains offer a glimmer of hope for restoring stability, they simultaneously threaten to worsen the already catastrophic humanitarian situation. Displacement is likely to increase as fighting intensifies, placing further strain on already overwhelmed resources. The disruption of supply routes, even those now controlled by the SAF, will exacerbate food insecurity and limit access to essential services like healthcare and clean water. Widespread disease outbreaks are already overwhelming hospitals, and the situation is likely to deteriorate further. The international community must prepare for a significant surge in humanitarian needs, particularly in Darfur and Kordofan.

The coming months will be critical in determining the future of Sudan. The SAF’s momentum, fueled by the capture of Bara and el-Obeid, presents a potential path towards regaining control of key territories. However, the RSF remains a formidable force, and the humanitarian consequences of continued conflict are staggering. What strategies can international actors employ to mitigate the escalating humanitarian crisis and foster a sustainable path to peace in Sudan? Share your thoughts in the comments below!