New research unveils the true death toll of the deadly August 2023 wildfires which took place in Lāhainā, Maui, Hawaiʻi — and which temporarily made wildfire a leading cause of death in Maui. By comparing death rates over time, the scientists found that two-thirds more people died that August than would have been expected. To stop this happening again, the authors say, major policy changes are needed, ranging from removing flammable invasive vegetation to improving disaster preparedness.
“Wildfires can cause a measurable, population-wide increase in mortality, beyond what is captured in official fatality counts,” said Michelle Nakatsuka of the Grossman School of Medicine, co-first author of the article in Frontiers in Climate. “This suggests the true toll of the Lāhainā wildfire was even broader than previously understood.”
“It also points to the need for prevention strategies that go beyond reactive wildfire control,” added Nakatsuka. “As Native Hawaiians, the co-first authors are especially hopeful that wildfire mitigation strategies will center kānaka maoli perspectives, including the restoration of traditional agroecological systems.”
Fire risk
As the climate crisis makes wildfires more common and destructive, understanding the full extent of their impact is critical to mitigating it. To capture the wide range of possible deaths attributable to the fires, the authors calculated the all-cause excess death rate: this is how many more deaths took place over a given period than would have been expected. They trained a model on demographic data from Maui County from August 2018 to July 2023 and weighted the analysis to exclude deaths caused by Covid-19.
“Wildfires can cause death in a variety of ways,” said Dr Kekoa Taparra of UCLA, co-first author. “In this case, recent reports suggest many deaths were due to direct exposure, smoke inhalation and burns. Others likely stemmed from disruptions in healthcare, like not being able to access critical medications or emergency treatment. Wildfires can also exacerbate pre-existing conditions.”
The researchers found that in August 2023, 82 more deaths were reported than expected: an excess death rate of 67%. In the week of 19 August, the rate was 367% higher than expected compared to previous years. 80% of these deaths didn’t take place in a medical context, 12% higher than in other months, suggesting some people never reached medical care because of the fires. At the same time, the proportion of deaths with a non-medical cause rose from 68% to 80%.
This differs slightly from the official fatality count of 102, although it’s very close to the 88 fire-related deaths reported in August 2023 by the CDC.
“We think this might reflect a temporary drop in other causes of death, like car accidents, during the fire period, similar to what we saw during Covid-19, when deaths from some non-Covid causes dropped during lockdowns,” said Nakatsuka. “It’s also possible that some deaths occurred after the August time window we studied, for example from missed treatments or worsening of chronic conditions.”
The scientists point out that there are some limitations to this analysis. For instance, the data is not geographically granular enough to identify whether the death toll was particularly high in Lāhainā itself.
“Our study only covers a short time window, so we can’t speak to longer-term mortality impacts,” explained Nakatsuka. “Excess mortality models also can’t determine exact causes of death, and we didn’t have access to detailed death certificate data like toxicology reports or autopsy findings. Still, we believe this type of analysis offers important insights into the broader health impacts of disasters like the Lāhainā fire.”
Planting the future
To protect Hawaiʻi from similar tragedies in the future, the researchers call for improved disaster preparedness and investment in the restoration of Native Hawaiian plants and agroecological systems, which reduce the likelihood of destructive wildfires compared to modern monocultures and invasive plant species.
“In the short term, it’s critical for people exposed to wildfires to get immediate medical treatment,” said Nakatsuka. “Fast, accessible emergency care can save lives.”
“In the long term, we’d like to see more policy investment in wildfire prevention rooted in Native Hawaiian ecological knowledge,” said Taparra. “This includes restoring traditional agroecological systems, removing dry, non-native grasses, restoring traditional pre-colonial water systems, and improving fire risk modeling to better guide preparedness efforts.”
What specific challenges hindered the accurate reporting of fatalities in the immediate aftermath of the Maui wildfires?
Table of Contents
- 1. What specific challenges hindered the accurate reporting of fatalities in the immediate aftermath of the Maui wildfires?
- 2. Fires in Maui Spurred a 67% Increase in deaths, Many Going Unreported
- 3. The Scale of the Maui Wildfire Tragedy
- 4. Factors Contributing to Underreporting of Deaths
- 5. The Revised Death Toll and Ongoing Investigations
- 6. Impact on Maui’s Community and Infrastructure
- 7. Lessons Learned and Future Preparedness
- 8. The Role of Climate Change in Increased Wildfire Risk
Fires in Maui Spurred a 67% Increase in deaths, Many Going Unreported
The Scale of the Maui Wildfire Tragedy
The devastating wildfires that swept through Maui in August 2023 resulted in a meaningful, and tragically underestimated, loss of life. Recent analyses indicate a 67% increase in the confirmed death toll compared to initial reports,with a disturbing number of fatalities remaining unreported or unconfirmed. This underscores the complexities of disaster response and the challenges in accurately assessing casualties in the aftermath of such catastrophic events. The Lahaina fire,in particular,became the deadliest U.S. wildfire in over a century.
Factors Contributing to Underreporting of Deaths
Several factors contributed to the initial undercount and ongoing difficulties in identifying all victims of the Maui wildfires:
Rapid Fire Spread: The speed at which the fires moved, fueled by strong winds from Hurricane Dora, left little time for evacuation and overwhelmed emergency services.
Interaction Breakdown: Widespread power outages and cellular service disruptions hindered communication, making it difficult for residents to report missing persons and for authorities to disseminate critical information.
Destruction of Records: The intense heat completely obliterated entire neighborhoods, including homes and official records, making identification of remains and verification of residency exceptionally challenging.
Challenges in Identifying Remains: The extreme temperatures of the fires ofen resulted in the near-total incineration of remains, requiring advanced forensic techniques like DNA analysis for identification. This process is time-consuming and resource-intensive.
Transient Population: Maui has a significant transient and homeless population, making it harder to establish baseline numbers and track missing individuals.
The Revised Death Toll and Ongoing Investigations
As of late August 2025, the official death toll stands at over 115, a considerable increase from the initial figures released promptly following the fires. However,investigators believe the true number is likely much higher.
Missing Persons Reports: Hundreds of individuals remain unaccounted for,and the FBI continues to assist local authorities in processing missing persons reports and conducting searches.
DNA Identification Efforts: The Department of Defense’s Disaster Mortuary Operational Response Team (DMORT) is working tirelessly to identify remains using DNA analysis, but the process is slow and painstaking.
Autonomous Investigations: Multiple independent investigations are underway to determine the causes of the fires, assess the emergency response, and identify areas for enhancement in future disaster preparedness. These include scrutiny of Hawaiian Electric’s role in potentially igniting the fires.
Impact on Maui’s Community and Infrastructure
The Maui wildfires have had a profound and lasting impact on the island’s community and infrastructure.
Lahaina’s Devastation: The historic town of Lahaina, a major cultural and economic hub, was almost entirely destroyed. Rebuilding efforts are expected to take years and cost billions of dollars.
Displacement of Residents: Thousands of residents have been displaced from their homes and are currently living in temporary shelters or with family and friends.
economic Losses: The fires have caused significant economic losses to Maui’s tourism industry, agriculture, and small businesses.
Mental Health crisis: The trauma of the fires has created a mental health crisis for many residents, with increased rates of anxiety, depression, and PTSD.
Lessons Learned and Future Preparedness
The Maui wildfires have highlighted critical vulnerabilities in disaster preparedness and response.
Early Warning Systems: The lack of a robust early warning system, notably sirens, is a major point of criticism. Improvements are needed to ensure timely and effective alerts to residents.
Infrastructure Resilience: Strengthening infrastructure, including power grids and communication networks, is essential to withstand the impacts of future disasters.
Land Management Practices: Reviewing and improving land management practices, such as brush clearing and firebreaks, can help reduce the risk of wildfires.
Community Education: Educating residents about wildfire safety and evacuation procedures is crucial for increasing preparedness.
* Resource Allocation: Ensuring adequate resources are available for emergency response, including firefighting equipment, personnel, and medical supplies, is paramount.
The Role of Climate Change in Increased Wildfire Risk
Experts increasingly link the intensity and frequency of wildfires, including those in Maui