Trade

An analysis published by Robin Brooks, chief economist at the Institute of International Finance (IIF), showed that Colombia’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 36% since 2012.

Thus, the country is positioned as a leader in the region, surpassing the growth of Peru (34%), Chile (27%), Mexico (13%), Argentina (3%) and Brazil (0%) in the last decade.

Just last year Colombia’s GDP grew 10.6% annually and, in fact, according to forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), this year it would achieve a figure of 5.8%, exceeding the projections of countries such as Spain (4.8%), China (4.4%) and Canada ( 3.9%).

Real GDP in Latin America: 2012 – 2022

1. Colombia (pink): +36%
2. Peru (dots): +34%
3. Chile (red): +27%
4. Mexico (orange): +13%
5. Argentina (black): +3%
6. Brazil (blue): 0%

With @IifPaola, @mcastellano44 & @SergiLanauIIF pic.twitter.com/Haz4H3CKdl

— Robin Brooks (@RobinBrooksIIF) April 30, 2022

For Latin America, the multilateral entity slightly raised its growth forecast for this year, from 2.4% to 2.5%, but reduced the projection for 2023, also to 2.5% from 2.6%.

Latin America will be the region with the lowest growth in 2022, according to the agency. The IMF forecasts that the euro zone will grow 2.8% this year, despite the scope of the war in Eastern Europe, and the advanced economies, as a whole, will have a growth of 3.3%.

Several experts have already assured that one of the risks of global growth is inflation. IMF figures indicate that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the five main economies of Latin America, including Colombia, is the highest in 15 years, following the impacts of the pandemic and the crisis in Ukraine due to the Russian invasion.

The conflict in Eastern Europe aggravated inflation in the region, which had already been accelerating in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru in 2021, mainly due to the increase in food and energy prices, monetary policy and the adjustment of wages, as well as the recovery of demand following the pandemic.

According to the projections of the Monetary Fund, Colombia will be the third economy in the region with the highest inflation this year, behind Brazil and Paraguay, without taking into account Venezuela and Argentina, which already had high inflationary pressures even before the arrival of covid-19.

For next year, the agency expects inflation in Colombia to be one of the most moderate in Latin America and expects it to slow down to 4.2%. The countries where inflation will be most controlled will be in Argentina, Paraguay and then Colombia, which will no longer be one of the economies with the highest inflation.

Another of Colombia’s challenges this year is to continue recovering jobs, since more than five million jobs were lost in Colombia during the pandemic.

“It is still worrying to see that although the Colombian economy has already exceeded its pre-pandemic levels and today operates above that, the labor market still has significant gaps to close,” said Jackeline Piraján, economist at Scotiabank Colpatria.

The dollar closed at $3,947.54 on average, which represents an increase of $15.8 compared to the Representative Market Rate (TRM), which for today’s session stood at $3,931.74

The opening price recorded by the Set-FX platform was $3,950, while the high reached $3,866 and the low $3,933.50. During the day, US$1,232 million were negotiated through 1,926 transactions.

Stocks steadied on Tuesday following China pledged to boost monetary policy support for the covid-19-hit country’s economy, whose tribulations have clouded prospects. prospects for global recovery.

European stocks recovered from a six-week low, with energy and mining companies leading the recovery while commodity prices recovered Monday’s losses. US stock futures fell following Monday’s choppy close ahead of tech majors’ gains.

In addition to promising more assistance, the People’s Bank of China also said it will promote healthy and stable development in financial markets. Most of Beijing is being tested for the virus, stoking fears of an unprecedented lockdown there.

Treasuries fell and oil rose in a sign of steadier investor confidence. But the risk of an economic downturn from the China lockdowns, as well as the Federal Reserve’s aggressive policy tightening, continues to weigh on markets.

The prospect of a slower economic expansion coupled with persistent inflation is causing a feverish mood in the markets. The panoply of risks encompasses the pandemic, supply chain disruptions, a Federal Reserve tightening and Russia’s war in Ukraine. The search for portfolio buffers in the US is evident in the highest relative cost of loss protection sales contracts in two years.

“It’s a question of what monetary policy is going to be like and it’s super unknown,” Nancy Davis, chief investment officer at Quadratic Capital Management LLC, said on Bloomberg Television.

An index of Asia-Pacific stocks climbed higher for the first time in four sessions amid a 3% jump in technology shares in Hong Kong. Mainland Chinese stocks fell, but avoided the kind of drop they witnessed on Monday. The offshore yuan and dollar gauge were little changed, while the yen rose amid short-covering.

Oil prices rose modestly on Tuesday in a volatile session as the market weighed supply concerns from Russia once morest demand from China. European Brent crude rose 2.86% to $105.17, while US WTI crude rose 23.71% to $102 a barrel.

Concerns regarding demand in China, the world’s largest crude importer, added to downward pressure on Tuesday. The Chinese capital, Beijing, has expanded mass testing for covid-19 to much of its almost 22 million inhabitants, as the population prepares for an imminent confinement similar to that seen in Shanghai.Read full story

However, both oil contracts were up more than a dollar a barrel at the start of the session, following the People’s Bank of China’s statement that it will increase monetary policy support for the real economy.Read full story

“I continue to expect more political support, but not the policy deluge that markets have been expecting, which might leave oil markets adrift in the short term, looking for support in the US summer travel season and in EU sanctions,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a note.

The prospect of a supply shortage in the physical market related to the withdrawal of Russian oil provided support for prices. Indeed, parliamentary parties in Germany’s ruling coalition have called on the government to go ahead with a plan to phase out Russian oil and gas imports “as soon as possible”; however, analysts say the release of oil from emergency reserves has eased concerns regarding supply shortages.

Elsewhere, in a bearish sign for oil markets, five analysts polled by Archyde.com estimated on average that US crude inventories had risen by 2.2 million barrels in the week to April 22.

The survey was conducted ahead of the release of the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) inventory report at 8:30 p.m. GMT on Tuesday. Official data from the Energy Information Administration will be released on Wednesday.