The Shifting Sands of Geopolitics: How Trump’s Policies Are Forging a New India-China Alliance

A staggering $99.2 billion trade deficit with China – double that of its deficit with the US – is just one factor pushing India towards a dramatic recalibration of its foreign policy. For decades, New Delhi carefully balanced relationships with Washington and Beijing. But the disruptive force of Donald Trump’s trade wars and a perceived shift in US priorities are accelerating a thaw in India-China relations, potentially reshaping the geopolitical landscape of Asia and beyond.

From “Namaste Trump” to a “Dragon-Elephant Tango”

The contrast is stark. Five years ago, India rolled out the red carpet for President Trump, signaling a burgeoning strategic partnership. Simultaneously, China faced condemnation following border clashes in Galwan Valley. India responded with app bans and a strengthening of ties with the US and the Quad – a security dialogue including Japan and Australia – designed to counter China’s growing influence. However, Trump’s subsequent imposition of steep tariffs on Indian goods, coupled with a perceived US willingness to engage with Pakistan, has forced a reassessment in New Delhi.

Recent meetings between Prime Minister Modi and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, hailed as fostering “respect for each other’s interests,” signal a clear shift. Resumption of direct flights, eased visa processes, and discussions on border settlement – including exploring an “early harvest” agreement on disputed territories – demonstrate a tangible effort to stabilize relations. Xi Jinping’s invitation to Modi for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit, a grouping often seen as a counterweight to US influence, further underscores this warming trend. As Xi Jinping himself put it, the goal is a “Dragon-Elephant tango” – a symbolic representation of a more harmonious, if still competitive, relationship.

The US Factor: Tariffs, Pakistan, and a Question of Priorities

The catalyst for this change isn’t necessarily a sudden embrace of China, but a pragmatic response to US policies. Trump’s tariffs, particularly the 50% duty on Indian imports, are inflicting economic pain and prompting India to diversify its economic partnerships. Furthermore, the US’s overtures to Pakistan, including unprecedented White House meetings with the Pakistani army chief, have raised concerns in New Delhi. This perceived shift in US alignment has left India seeking to reduce its number of adversaries, even if fundamental disagreements with China remain.

Experts suggest the White House, under Trump, is inadvertently undermining decades of diplomatic work in Asia. “For Beijing, the outreach [towards India] appears largely tactical, while for New Delhi, it stems more from uncertainty and the shifting geopolitical landscape,” explains Sana Hashmi, a fellow at the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation. The US, by prioritizing trade pressure over strategic alignment, is pushing India towards a more independent foreign policy.

Economic Realignment and the Rise of Asia-Led Trade

The economic implications of a stronger India-China relationship are significant. Access to the Chinese market could mitigate the impact of US tariffs, while collaborative supply chain networks could reduce India’s reliance on the US. China’s willingness to offer greater market access for Indian goods is a key component of this potential realignment. This isn’t simply about trade; it’s about creating an alternative economic architecture in Asia, less dependent on Western powers.

“The pace of improvement [in India-China relations] has certainly hastened over the past few months,” notes trade economist Biswajit Dhar. A warmer relationship could also facilitate the development of Asia-led trade blocs, independent of Washington, potentially challenging the existing global economic order. The Council on Foreign Relations provides further analysis on the evolving dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region.

The Quad’s Future: A Shifting Purpose?

The implications for the Quad are complex. While the grouping’s core objectives – resilient supply chains, emerging technologies, and maritime security – remain relevant, a closer India-China relationship could temper India’s appetite for overtly anti-China positioning. The Quad may need to evolve from a blunt counter-China bloc to a broader platform for regional cooperation. However, experts believe the Quad’s strategic relevance will endure, particularly in areas of shared interest.

Strategic Autonomy and the Limits of Cooperation

India’s long-held commitment to “strategic autonomy” – refusing to be drawn into formal alliances or ideological blocs – remains a guiding principle. While a thaw in relations with China is underway, it’s unlikely to transform the relationship entirely. Competition and conflict will persist, particularly along the disputed border. Furthermore, India’s efforts to “derisk” its supply chains by reducing dependence on any single source, including China, will continue.

Ultimately, the India-China rapprochement represents a pragmatic response to a changing geopolitical landscape. It’s a recognition that both countries have lost too much through prolonged tension. However, it’s also a calculated move, driven by economic necessity and a desire to navigate a world where the US’s role is increasingly uncertain. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether this “Dragon-Elephant tango” can evolve into a more stable and sustainable partnership, or if it remains a temporary dance dictated by shifting geopolitical winds.

What impact will this evolving dynamic have on global supply chains? Share your predictions in the comments below!