The United States military has begun withdrawing from its main base in northeastern Syria, a move signaling a potential shift in Washington’s regional strategy and raising questions about the future security landscape in the region. The withdrawal from the Kasrak base, once a central hub for the US-led global coalition against ISIS, began Monday morning with dozens of trucks departing the facility, according to reports from Reuters and Syrian sources.
This drawdown follows a recent trend of US forces pulling back from bases in Syria, including ash-Shaddadi and al-Tanf, after Syrian government forces gained control of the northeast from Kurdish-led forces. The evolving situation underscores the complex interplay of actors in Syria and the shifting dynamics of the long-running conflict. A complete withdrawal from Kasrak would leave the US with only one remaining base in Syria: Rmelan, located near the border with Iraq.
The withdrawal is occurring as the Syrian government, backed by Russia and Iran, asserts greater control over territory previously held by Kurdish groups and the US-led coalition. A senior US official, speaking anonymously, previously confirmed at least a partial withdrawal of American troops, citing the Syrian government’s “willingness to take primary responsibility for fighting the terrorist threat within their borders” as a key factor in reducing the need for a continued US presence. This suggests a recalibration of US priorities, potentially focusing on counterterrorism efforts conducted from a more limited footprint.
Kasrak served as a critical base during the campaign to defeat ISIS, with Kurdish forces serving as the primary partner for US troops in that effort. The future of this partnership and the security of areas formerly controlled by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), is now uncertain. The SDF currently holds the city of Raqqa, which was once the de facto capital of ISIS, and continues to patrol the city amid fears of a resurgence of the terrorist group, as reported by Czech Television in December 2024.
Concerns Over Potential ISIS Resurgence
The withdrawal of US forces raises concerns about a potential resurgence of ISIS, particularly in areas where the SDF are stretched thin. According to a report from Seznam Zpravy, the SDF may be forced to abandon guarded facilities holding ISIS prisoners and camps housing the families of ISIS fighters due to a lack of capacity. This could create opportunities for ISIS to regroup and launch latest attacks.
The situation is further complicated by ongoing tensions between Kurdish forces and Turkish-backed rebel groups in the region. As noted by Czech Television, these groups are engaged in active conflict, adding another layer of instability to the region. Kurdish forces are actively seeking to maintain security in Raqqa, conducting patrols and searching for “sleeper cells” of ISIS fighters.
Regional Implications and the Conflict in Rojava
The broader conflict in Rojava, the Kurdish-majority region of Syria, has been ongoing since 2012, evolving from a push for autonomy to an armed conflict involving multiple actors. As detailed by Wikipedia, the conflict involves the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the Syrian government, Turkey, and various rebel groups, as well as the remnants of ISIS. The SDF, backed by the US, established the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, seeking a degree of self-governance.
Turkey views the SDF as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a designated terrorist organization, and has launched multiple military operations in Syria targeting Kurdish groups. This has created a volatile security environment and contributed to the displacement of civilians. The withdrawal of US forces could further embolden Turkey to pursue its security objectives in the region.
What to Watch Next
The coming weeks will be critical in determining the long-term implications of the US withdrawal from Kasrak. The speed and extent of the withdrawal, as well as the response from the Syrian government, Kurdish forces, and Turkey, will shape the future of northeastern Syria. Monitoring the situation for any signs of a resurgence of ISIS activity, increased clashes between Kurdish and Turkish-backed forces, and the potential for further US troop reductions will be crucial. The evolving dynamics in Syria underscore the ongoing challenges of counterterrorism, regional stability, and the complex geopolitical interests at play.
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