Guadalajara, Mexico – A wave of violence swept across Mexico following the death of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho,” leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), in a military operation on Sunday. The clashes, which included burning buses and automatic weapon fire, left at least 70 people dead, including 25 members of Mexico’s National Guard, according to President Claudia Sheinbaum. The operation, guided by intelligence shared with U.S. Military and law enforcement, underscores the escalating pressure on Mexico to combat drug trafficking, particularly fentanyl, flowing into the United States.

The sudden eruption of violence highlights the precarious balance between security operations and the potential for retaliatory attacks by powerful cartels. David Mora, an analyst with the International Crisis Group, described Guadalajara as a “ghost town” in the immediate aftermath, with streets completely deserted. The events are unfolding against a backdrop of increasing scrutiny from Washington, and a renewed focus on Mexico’s role in the fentanyl crisis.

President Sheinbaum asserted that “the country is at peace” and “calm” during a Monday press conference, despite the widespread unrest. Yet, the scale of the violence serves as a stark reminder of the deep-rooted challenges Mexico faces in its ongoing struggle against organized crime. The operation targeting El Mencho represents a shift in the government’s security strategy, but also reflects the external pressures influencing its approach.

The timing of the operation is inextricably linked to the intensifying rhetoric from former President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly blamed Sheinbaum’s administration for failing to curb the flow of illicit drugs into the U.S. Trump has even suggested the possibility of unilateral military action against Mexican cartels. “Mexico must step up their effort on Cartels and Drugs!” Trump wrote on his social media platform Monday, signaling his continued dissatisfaction despite the operation’s success.

Pressure from Washington and a History of Violence

The pressure from the Trump administration has been significant, with accusations that the Mexican government is complicit with trafficking networks. Despite a willingness from Sheinbaum to extradite high-profile narcos for trial in the U.S., and Trump’s own willingness to pardon convicted drug traffickers, the former president has shown little sign of easing his demands. This dynamic underscores the complex interplay between domestic security concerns in Mexico and external pressures from the United States.

The recent violence echoes a pattern seen in Mexico over the past decade. Confrontations with high-profile drug traffickers have frequently triggered bloody battles with heavily armed groups, paralyzing cities and resulting in numerous casualties. A particularly controversial incident occurred in 2019 in Culiacán, when Mexican troops briefly seized Ovidio Guzmán López, son of Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán Loera, only to release him following a fierce siege by cartel gunmen.

While previous operations often involved collaboration with U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration advisors and even special operations forces, Sunday’s operation appears to have been carried out entirely by Mexican security forces. Jesús Esquivel, a journalist with La Jornada, expressed pride in the Mexican Army’s actions, stating it sends a message to the U.S. Government that Mexico is capable of addressing the issue independently.

A Familiar Pattern of Fragmentation

However, experts warn that the killing of El Mencho may not bring lasting peace. Ieva Jusionyte, an anthropologist specializing in organized crime in Mexico, suggests that the removal of a top leader often leads to the fragmentation of criminal groups, resulting in increased violence as factions vie for control. “Here’s a continuation of this militarized approach to organized crime,” Jusionyte explained. “With the fracturing of these organized crime groups, there is more violence, but the structure remains intact—the drug demand in the U.S. And the gun supply from the U.S. Remains, and in Mexico the impunity and the weakness of the justice system remain.”

The long-term implications of El Mencho’s death remain uncertain. For nearly 20 years, Mexico has been engaged in a heavily militarized, U.S.-backed war on cartels, a strategy that has failed to stem the flow of drugs into the United States. Instead, the country has experienced decades of horrific violence, the proliferation of paramilitary groups, and a fractured criminal landscape. The current situation in Jalisco raises concerns that this pattern will continue.

The question now, as Esquivel pointed out, is not just about arresting or eliminating cartel leaders, but about addressing the root causes of the problem: reducing drug demand and stopping the flow of weapons from the United States.

As the situation stabilizes in Jalisco, the focus will likely shift to monitoring the response of the CJNG and preventing further fragmentation. The coming weeks and months will be critical in determining whether El Mencho’s death marks a turning point in Mexico’s fight against organized crime, or simply the beginning of a new chapter in a long and bloody conflict.

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