Tanzania’s Landslide Election: A Warning Sign for Democratic Trends in East Africa?
A staggering 97% victory for Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan isn’t a celebration of democratic participation – it’s a stark indicator of a shrinking space for opposition and a worrying trend towards authoritarian consolidation in East Africa. While Hassan’s win extends the decades-long rule of the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party, the circumstances surrounding the election – marred by violence, arrests, and restricted internet access – raise serious questions about the future of political freedom in the nation and the region.
The Illusion of Consensus: A Carefully Managed Election
President Hassan’s landslide victory, while presented as a mandate for female leadership, was achieved in an environment systematically designed to stifle dissent. Key opposition figures, like Tundu Lissu of the Chadema party, were jailed on questionable charges, while others, such as Luhaga Mpina of ACT-Wazalendo, were barred from running altogether. This effectively turned the election into a coronation rather than a contest, leaving Hassan to face only minor candidates with limited reach.
The violence that erupted following the October 29th election, with reports of at least 10 deaths in Dar es Salaam, Shinyanga, and Morogoro, underscores the deep-seated frustration and anger simmering beneath the surface. The deployment of the military to quell protests and the intermittent internet shutdowns – disrupting everything from travel to business – demonstrate the government’s willingness to suppress any form of opposition, even peaceful demonstration. These actions echo a broader pattern of repression documented by organizations like Amnesty International, which have reported on enforced disappearances, arbitrary arrests, and extrajudicial killings in Tanzania.
A Shift in CCM’s Strategy: From Tolerance to Tight Control
For years, the CCM party maintained a degree of tolerance for opposition, allowing a semblance of political pluralism while firmly controlling the levers of power. However, under President Hassan, this approach appears to have shifted dramatically. Critics argue she’s adopted a more authoritarian style, actively silencing critical voices through intimidation, arrest, and restrictions on media freedom – including a ban on X (formerly Twitter) and limitations on the popular Tanzanian digital platform, JamiiForums.
This change is particularly concerning given the rise of youth-led democracy movements across Africa. Unlike some neighboring countries where these movements have gained traction, Tanzania has seen a concerted effort to suppress them. The government’s actions suggest a determination to maintain absolute control, even at the expense of fundamental freedoms. This strategy, while effective in the short term, risks fueling long-term instability and resentment.
China’s Influence and the CCM’s Longevity
The CCM’s enduring grip on power is also inextricably linked to its close ties with the Communist Party of China. This relationship provides the CCM with political and economic support, reinforcing its ability to maintain control. The party’s structure, designed for orderly leadership transitions every five to ten years, further contributes to its stability. This contrasts sharply with the often-turbulent political landscapes of other African nations.
However, this stability comes at a cost. The fusion of the CCM with the state apparatus – controlling security forces and key institutions – creates a system where accountability is limited and dissent is swiftly suppressed. This model, while providing a degree of predictability, stifles innovation and hinders genuine democratic development. For a deeper understanding of China’s growing influence in Africa, see the Council on Foreign Relations’ report on China-Africa relations.
What Does This Mean for East Africa?
Tanzania’s trajectory is not isolated. It reflects a broader trend of democratic backsliding in East Africa, where authoritarian leaders are increasingly consolidating power and suppressing opposition. The region, once seen as a beacon of progress, is facing a growing crisis of governance. The lack of genuine political competition and the erosion of fundamental freedoms pose a significant threat to long-term stability and economic development.
The international community’s response has been muted. While the UN Secretary-General and foreign ministers of the UK, Canada, and Norway have expressed concern, stronger action is needed to hold the Tanzanian government accountable for its actions. This includes targeted sanctions against individuals responsible for human rights abuses and increased support for civil society organizations working to promote democracy and good governance.
The future of Tanzania, and indeed the wider region, hinges on whether the forces of authoritarianism can be contained and whether a genuine commitment to democratic principles can be restored. The recent election serves as a stark warning: the illusion of consensus cannot mask the reality of repression. What steps will regional and international actors take to address this growing crisis and support the aspirations of the Tanzanian people for a truly democratic future?
