Tanzania’s Elections: A Descent into Authoritarianism and the Looming Risk of Instability
The disappearance of Humphrey Polepole, a former ambassador and once-loyal member of Tanzania’s ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party, isn’t an isolated incident. It’s a chilling symptom of a rapidly deteriorating political climate, one where dissent is met not with debate, but with enforced disappearance, and where the upcoming October 29th elections are shaping up to be a formality rather than a genuine exercise in democracy. This isn’t simply about an election; it’s about the erosion of a fragile peace and the potential for widespread unrest in a nation previously considered a beacon of stability in East Africa.
The Silencing of Opposition: A Pattern of Repression
President Samia Suluhu Hassan, who assumed office in 2021 following the death of John Magufuli, initially offered a glimmer of hope for reform. However, that promise has largely evaporated. Instead, her administration has overseen an unprecedented crackdown on political opponents. The main opposition party, Chadema, remains hampered by a court-ordered ban on activities, while its leader, Tundu Lissu, faces treason charges – a clear attempt to stifle legitimate political opposition. Even ACT Wazalendo, the second-largest opposition party, has been effectively sidelined with its candidate barred from running. This systematic dismantling of the opposition landscape is a hallmark of increasingly authoritarian regimes.
The suppression extends beyond formal political structures. Freedom of expression is under assault, with a ban on X (formerly Twitter) and restrictions on platforms like JamiiForums. The government’s use of “online patrols” to monitor and intimidate citizens is particularly alarming, creating a climate of fear and self-censorship. These actions aren’t merely about controlling the narrative; they’re about dismantling the very foundations of a free and open society.
Beyond Politics: Economic Grievances Fueling Discontent
The political repression is occurring against a backdrop of growing economic hardship. Soaring food prices are exacerbating public frustration, creating a volatile mix of political and economic grievances. While the security services maintain a tight grip on public discourse, the underlying discontent is palpable. Recent mass protests in neighboring Kenya, Mozambique, and Madagascar serve as stark reminders of the potential for unrest when economic desperation meets political repression. Tanzania isn’t immune to these regional dynamics.
The Internal Purge Within the CCM
The crackdown isn’t limited to external opposition. President Suluhu Hassan has also moved to consolidate power within the CCM itself. Her nomination as presidential candidate bypassed traditional party conventions, and the selection of parliamentary candidates was tightly controlled, excluding senior members loyal to rival factions. This internal purge demonstrates a ruthless determination to eliminate any potential challenges to her authority, even within her own party. This level of control is unprecedented in Tanzania’s multi-party history, which began in 1992.
The Enforced Disappearances: A Growing Crisis
The abduction of Humphrey Polepole is the latest, and perhaps most alarming, example of a disturbing trend: enforced disappearances. Since mid-2024, these cases have intensified, targeting opposition activists, government critics, and now, even former CCM stalwarts. While security agencies are widely suspected, accountability remains elusive. Crisis Group reports highlight the growing concern among international observers regarding this escalating crisis. The lack of due process and the impunity enjoyed by those responsible are deeply troubling.
Looking Ahead: A Precarious Future
The October 29th elections are unlikely to be free and fair. With most credible opposition candidates sidelined and a climate of fear prevailing, a landslide victory for President Suluhu Hassan and the CCM is almost guaranteed. However, this victory will come at a steep cost. The suppression of dissent and the erosion of democratic institutions are creating a breeding ground for resentment and instability.
The international community must increase pressure on the Tanzanian government to respect human rights, release political prisoners, and allow for genuine political participation. Ignoring the warning signs now could have dire consequences, potentially leading to widespread unrest and a reversal of the progress Tanzania has made in recent decades. The situation demands urgent attention and a commitment to supporting a more democratic and inclusive future for the country. What steps will regional and international actors take to prevent a further descent into authoritarianism in Tanzania?
