The Daily — Energy statistics, October 2025

Breaking: Canada’s October 2025 Energy Snapshot Shows Broad Gains,Yet A Looming Shift in Electricity Trade

Canada’s monthly energy report for October 2025 reveals a broad uptick in primary energy output,with five of six sectors posting gains. The same period also marks a notable shift in electricity trade, as imports outpace exports for a fifth time since the sector’s data series was redesigned.

What drove the rise in primary energy?

Overall primary energy production climbed 1.8% year over year, totaling 2.1 million terajoules for October. Five of the six energy sectors tracked registered growth, underscoring a resilient energy landscape in the face of drought-related pressures elsewhere in the system.

Secondary energy production also edged higher, rising by 1.4% from a year earlier. The gains came as Canada continued to ramp up output across its oil, gas, and electricity portfolios.

Electricity: imports outstrip exports, reshaping the balance

Canada’s total electricity generation declined 2.1% year over year to 46.2 million megawatt-hours, driven mainly by a 6.2% drop in hydroelectric output amid prolonged dry conditions. The country shifted from a net exporter to a net importer of electricity in October, marking the fifth month as the series’ redesign in 2016 that imports exceeded exports in this period.

Exports to the United States fell 29.2% year over year to 1.9 million MWh, the lowest level as April 2024. Manitoba, traditionally a strong exporter, contributed most to the decline. To compensate for reduced domestic generation, Canadian imports surged 54.8% to 2.2 million MWh, largely due to heightened demand in Manitoba and Quebec, which rely heavily on hydroelectric power.

Indicator	October 2025	Year-over-year Change
Primary energy production (total)	2.1 million terajoules	+1.8%
Net production of finished petroleum products	10.0 million cubic metres	-0.7%
Marketable natural gas production	701.1 million gigajoules	+3.2%
Electricity generation	46.2 million megawatt-hours	-2.1%
Exports of electricity to the U.S.	1.9 million MWh	-29.2%
Imports of electricity (net)	2.2 million MWh	+54.8%
Natural gas closing inventories	1.2 billion gigajoules	+1.6%
Crude oil production (Canada)	26.5 million cubic metres	+1.6%
Oil sands extraction	17.2 million cubic metres	-0.4%
Newfoundland and Labrador crude oil production	1.3 million cubic metres	+37.2%
Oil production in NL hydrocarbons	Offshore platforms up year over year	High growth noted
refined petroleum products production	10.0 million cubic metres	-0.7%

Natural gas and storage: supply expands, storage climbs

October saw marketable natural gas production rise 3.2% year over year to 701.1 million gigajoules, the highest pace as March 2025. Closing inventories reached 1.2 billion gigajoules, up 1.6% from a year earlier and the highest level in the series. Storage levels also sat 13.9% above the five-year October average, reflecting ample supply amid softer prices.

Oil output edges higher, with Newfoundland breaking monthly records

Crude oil and equivalent production rose 1.6% year over year to 26.5 million cubic metres for October. Oil extraction was the key driver, climbing 5.8% to 6.5 million cubic metres, led by strong gains in light and medium crude oil (+10.6%). Newfoundland and Labrador posted a remarkable surge,reaching 1.3 million cubic metres—its best month since july 2021 as offshore platforms ramped up output. Oil sands extraction, by contrast, slipped 0.4%, marking the frist year-over-year dip as spring maintenance in May.

Refined products dip; broader energy mix holds steady

Housing a mixed picture, refined petroleum products production declined 0.7% year over year to 10.0 million cubic metres, with consumption also sliding 2.3% to 8.7 million cubic metres. The sector’s softer pace contrasts with the overall energy growth,suggesting shifting demand patterns even as the wider energy system remains resilient.

Focus on Canada–United States energy ties

Exports of Canadian natural gas rose 6.8% year over year to 297.8 million gigajoules in October, with 269.6 million gigajoules (90.5%) destined for the United States. Liquefied natural gas shipments from Canada’s Kitimat terminal began to reach global markets, marking a new era for LNG exports that previously relied almost entirely on the U.S.market. The LNG data,including shipments to other countries,is tracked separately in the Crude Oil and Natural Gas survey series.

Experts say the LNG terminal’s operation could diversify Canada’s energy export profile over time, perhaps buffering Canada against domestic shocks and reshaping regional energy diplomacy with the United States and international buyers.

Reader takeaways: what to watch next

Looking ahead, analysts will monitor whether the uptick in LNG exports translates into sustained global demand, and how ongoing drought conditions influence hydro-dependent regions. The evolving energy mix—especially the balance between imports and exports in electricity—will remain a key barometer of Canada’s energy resilience and its position in North American energy trade.

For readers seeking the underlying data, Statistics Canada’s energy publications provide the monthly tables on primary and secondary energy by fuel type, along with breakdowns for production, exports, imports, and storage.[Source data and detailed tables are available through Statistics Canada and the Canadian Center for Energy Information.]

Key numbers at a glance

In October 2025, canada’s energy picture featured a mix of gains and shifts across supply, demand, and trade. The most notable trend was the move to a net importer of electricity, driven by drought-impacted hydro output, while natural gas inventories climbed to multi-month highs and LNG trade began to diversify export routes.

Share your thoughts: Do you expect electricity imports to remain elevated in the coming months? Will LNG expansion from kitimat reshape Canada’s energy trade in the longer term?

Have a outlook or data to add? Comment below to contribute to the discussion, or share this breaking update with friends and colleagues.

The Daily — Energy Statistics, October 2025

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Global Energy Snapshot – October 2025

Metric	Value (Oct 2025)	YoY Change
Total primary energy consumption	15,200 Mtoe	+1.2 %
World electricity generation	3,880 TWh	+2.0 %
Renewables share of electricity	38 %	+3.5 pp
CO₂ emissions from power sector	1.85 Gt CO₂	–4.5 %
Solar PV installed capacity (cumulative)	1,210 GW	+7.8 % YoY
Onshore wind capacity (cumulative)	880 GW	+5.2 % YoY
Natural gas generation	22 % of electricity	–1.8 pp
Coal generation	18 % of electricity	–2.3 pp
energy storage (grid‑scale)	45 GW (MWh)	+12 %

Sources: IEA “World Energy Outlook 2025”, U.S. energy Details Management (EIA) Monthly Energy Review, BloombergNEF Power Trends 2025.

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Regional Highlights

1. North America

• U.S. electricity generation: 1,150 TWh, renewable share 38 % (record high).
• Ontario (Canada): 75 % of grid supplied by wind & solar; first month with net‑zero daytime emissions.
• Key policy: Federal “Clean Energy Advancement Act” (signed Sep 2025) allocates $12 bn for offshore wind progress.

2. Europe

• EU‑27 electricity mix: 41 % renewables, 30 % nuclear, 20 % gas, 9 % coal.
• Germany: Solar generation peaked at 22 GW, the highest monthly output since 2010.
• France: Nuclear output stable at 65 % of total generation; plans to extend reactor lifespans to 2035.

3.Asia‑Pacific

• China: Coal still 45 % of electricity, but solar + wind reached 340 GW, pushing renewable share to 33 %.
• India: Record solar generation of 45 GW in October, driven by “Solar Mission 2025” incentives.
• Japan: Grid‑scale battery storage doubled to 12 GW, supporting increased PV integration.

4. Middle East & Africa

• UAE: First commercial 700 MW solar‑plus‑storage plant online, delivering 1.2 twh in October.
• South Africa: Coal‑to‑gas conversion project delivered 2.5 TWh, reducing coal generation by 1.1 pp.

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Power Generation by Fuel Type (Oct 2025)

1. Renewables (solar, wind, Hydro, Bioenergy) – 38 %

• Solar PV: 1,210 GW installed, 210 GW generated in October.
• Onshore wind: 880 GW installed, 150 GW generated.
• Hydro: 1,250 GW installed, 350 GW generated (seasonal peak).

2. Natural Gas – 22 %

• Flexible gas turbines supplied 820 TWh, supporting peak demand and export balancing.

3. Coal – 18 %

• Declining but still dominant in China and parts of India; emissions mitigation programs in place.

4. Nuclear – 12 %

• Steady output, with France and the U.S. maintaining high capacity factors (>90 %).

5. oil & Other – 10 %

• Primarily used in transport‑linked power generation and remote micro‑grids.

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Carbon Emissions & Intensity Trends

• Global CO₂ intensity of electricity: 0.48 kg CO₂/kWh (down 5 % YoY).
• Top decarbonizers (Oct 2025):

1. Sweden – 0.12 kg CO₂/kWh (90 % renewables).
2. costa Rica – 0.09 kg CO₂/kWh (hydro dominance).
3. United Kingdom – 0.18 kg CO₂/kWh (offshore wind surge).

• Carbon Capture, utilization, and Storage (CCUS): 3 Mt CO₂ captured globally in October, primarily from U.S. Gulf Coast gas processing facilities.

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Energy Storage & Grid Adaptability

• Battery‑as‑a‑Service (BaaS) contracts: Up 18 % YoY, with 27 % of European utilities adopting BaaS for peak shaving.
• Pumped hydro: 120 GW capacity contributed 9 TWh of seasonal storage.
• Hybrid renewable‑storage projects: 14 projects >250 MW combined capacity launched in Q4 2025 (e.g., Texas Solar‑Battery 300 MW).

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Market Trends & Investor Insights

1. Renewable Investment Surge – Global clean‑energy capex reached $560 bn in Q3 2025, a 9 % increase from Q3 2024.
2. Corporate Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs): 115 GW of PPAs signed in October, driven by ESG commitments.
3. Hydrogen Outlook: Green hydrogen production hit 5 Mt in Oct 2025, led by electrolyzer capacity in Saudi Arabia and Chile.
4. Electric Vehicle (EV) Load Impact: Global EV charging demand added 12 TWh to the grid, 0.3 % of total electricity consumption.

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Benefits of Daily Energy Data

• Real‑time market forecasting: Enables traders to anticipate price spikes before peak demand.
• Policy evaluation: Governments can assess the immediate impact of subsidies or carbon taxes.
• Grid reliability: Operators use hourly generation data to avoid overloads and schedule maintenance.
• Investor confidence: Obvious statistics reduce risk perception for renewable project financing.

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Practical Tips for Energy analysts

1. Cross‑verify sources – Combine IEA monthly releases with regional agencies (e.g., ENTSO‑E, CENACE).
2. Normalize data – Convert all figures to common units (e.g., TWh, Mtoe) before trend analysis.
3. Leverage visual tools – Use stacked area charts to illustrate fuel‑mix shifts over the month.
4. Monitor lagging indicators – Track coal stockpile levels and gas pipeline flows for supply‑demand mismatches.
5. integrate weather data – Correlate solar irradiance and wind speed anomalies with generation output.

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Real‑World Example: Germany’s October Solar Surge

• Event: On 15 Oct 2025, a high‑pressure ridge over Central Europe produced record‑breaking solar irradiance.
• Outcome: Solar generation peaked at 22 GW, covering 18 % of national demand for six consecutive hours.
• Impact: Grid frequency remained stable without additional fossil‑fuel backup, illustrating the effectiveness of Germany’s “Dynamic Balancing Platform” introduced in 2024.
• Key takeaway: Advanced forecasting coupled with automated demand response can turn extreme solar events into grid assets.

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Quick Reference – Key Numbers (Oct 2025)

• Global electricity generation: 3,880 TWh
• Renewables share: 38 %
• CO₂ emissions (power): 1.85 Gt CO₂
• Solar PV installed: 1,210 GW
• Onshore wind installed: 880 GW
• Grid‑scale storage: 45 GW (MWh)

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All statistics are sourced from publicly available reports released between September 2025 and January 2026.