MEXICO CITY (El Universal).— After three consecutive months without making any modification, the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF) raised its estimate for the interest rate used by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to confront inflation and that serves as a reference for the cost of the money lent.
In the monthly survey of the National Committee for Economic Studies, the consensus of 38 analysts who participated raised Banxico’s monetary policy rate to 9.75% for the end of 2024 from 9.50%. For 2025 they left it at the same level that they considered in the previous two months, at 7.75%. The above as a consequence of the marginal adjustment they made to the forecast for general inflation this year, going from 4.1% to 4.2%.
According to the survey, 17% chose to raise their forecast; The most optimistic placed inflation at 3.6% for the end of this year, and the most pessimistic, at 4.9%. For 2025 they reduced it slightly to 7.77%, compared to 7.78% in the last survey.
While for the economy, the consensus revised downward the forecast for GDP, both for this year and for next.
The growth they anticipate the economy will have in 2024 decreased from 2.4% to 2.3%; The highest expectation expects GDP to expand 3% and the lowest 1.6%.
They also corrected that of 2025 from 1.9% in the previous survey to 1.8%.
Consequently, the participants in the IMEF committee consultation reduced the number of jobs registered with the IMSS, from 600 thousand to 567 thousand for this year, and from 503 thousand to 500 thousand for 2025.
However, for the exchange rate, good expectations continue for the peso once morest the US dollar: according to the survey, the exchange rate might close the year at 18 units versus the 18.20 seen a month ago.
There is an estimate that considers that the super peso might end 2024 at 16.50, and at the other end, a more expensive dollar at 19.35 pesos per greenback.
For 2025 they placed the price at 18.80 compared to the 19 pesos per dollar they had in the last survey.
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2024-05-10 00:42:55
