The Unraveling of the Trump-Modi Alliance: A Diplomatic Pivot

Modi and Trump: From Hugs to Humiliation as a Friendship Fractures

New delhi/Washington – Just months ago, Narendra modi and Donald Trump shared a visible camaraderie, marked by lavish rallies and warm public displays. Now, the relationship between the Indian Prime Minister and the former U.S. President has soured, escalating into a public rift with implications for both nations. What began as a seemingly advantageous connection built on shared populism has devolved into a source of national humiliation for Modi, as Trump publicly takes credit for actions India denies and imposes economic penalties that appear politically motivated.

Modi, who once hailed Trump as “a true friend,” now finds himself on the receiving end of increasingly sharp rebukes from the former President. Trump’s planned autumn visit to India for the Quad summit is reportedly off, a symbolic blow following a contentious phone call in June. In India, Trump is now viewed by some as a “backstabber,” a sentiment dramatically illustrated by a giant effigy paraded during a recent festival in Maharashtra. Indian officials describe the U.S. actions as “gundagardi” – outright bullying.

At the heart of the discord lies a clash of egos and geopolitical strategies. Both leaders cultivated a strongman image, relying on nationalist appeals and a willingness to challenge established norms.However, Trump’s focus on personal relationships and a desire for a Nobel Peace Prize collided with the deeply sensitive and historically fraught relationship between India and Pakistan.

Few in India anticipated this outcome. Modi’s ambition to elevate India’s global standing seemed to align with Trump’s penchant for grand gestures, as evidenced by the “Howdy Modi!” rally in Texas and the “Namaste Trump!” event in Gujarat, where Trump was greeted with music, dancers, and over 100,000 cheering supporters.While other world leaders have attempted to court Trump with flattery and gifts, Modi’s efforts to navigate the complex issue of pakistan proved insufficient. Trump has repeatedly claimed credit for de-escalating tensions between India and Pakistan, suggesting he used trade as leverage to achieve a ceasefire – a claim vehemently denied by India.

Adding fuel to the fire are newly imposed tariffs on India, ostensibly due to concerns over Russian oil purchases and India’s trade practices. However, many observers believe these penalties are retribution for Modi’s refusal to acknowledge any U.S.role in the India-Pakistan situation. The selective targeting of India, while China – a far larger importer of Russian crude – remains untouched, has raised suspicions of a politically motivated agenda.

“The idea that Modi would accept a ceasefire under US pressure… goes against Indian diplomatic practice,” explains Tanvi Madan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.”Modi sold his relationships with US presidents as an asset… and now the opposition is portraying his friendship with Trump as a liability.”

The White House maintains that the two leaders share a “respectful relationship” and “remain in close communication,” with a spokesperson claiming Trump “successfully brought peace” between India and Pakistan. However, this narrative clashes with India’s consistent denial of U.S.mediation.

As the relationship deteriorates, the future of U.S.-India relations remains uncertain. The episode underscores the risks of relying on personality-driven diplomacy and the challenges of navigating the complex geopolitical landscape of South Asia.For Modi, the spectacle of a once-valued alliance crumbling carries significant political risks, forcing him to defend his nationalist credentials and manage a bruised national pride.

How did the personal rapport between Trump and Modi contribute to the initial strengthening of the U.S.-India alliance?

The Foundations of a “Special Relationship”

The relationship between former U.S. President Donald Trump and Indian prime Minister Narendra Modi was widely characterized as a burgeoning “special relationship.” Built on shared geopolitical interests – primarily a mutual concern regarding China’s rising influence – and a demonstrable personal rapport, the alliance saw increased defense cooperation, strengthened economic ties, and a convergence on several key foreign policy issues. Key elements included:

Increased Arms Sales: The U.S. became a major defense supplier to India, wiht significant deals for military equipment like Apache helicopters and maritime surveillance aircraft. This boosted the U.S. defense industry and solidified India’s military capabilities.

Quadrilateral Security Dialog (Quad): The Trump administration actively revitalized the Quad – comprising the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia – positioning it as a counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific region.

Trade Negotiations: While a comprehensive trade deal remained elusive, both nations engaged in ongoing negotiations aimed at reducing trade barriers and fostering economic growth.

Shared Concerns on Terrorism: A common stance on combating terrorism,particularly concerning Pakistan-based groups,further cemented the partnership.

Shifting Sands: Early Indicators of Strain

Even during Trump’s presidency, subtle cracks began to appear. Disagreements over trade practices, particularly India’s protectionist policies and tariffs, caused friction. The U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and subsequent imposition of sanctions on Iran also created a point of contention, as India continued to import oil from Iran. However,these were largely managed through diplomatic channels. The real divergence began post-Trump.

The Biden Administration’s Policy Shift: A New Approach to India

The Biden administration signaled a shift in U.S. policy towards India, prioritizing human rights and democratic values alongside strategic interests. This marked a departure from the more transactional approach favored by Trump. Key changes include:

Increased Scrutiny of India’s Human Rights Record: The Biden administration has publicly raised concerns about India’s human rights situation, including issues related to religious freedom, press freedom, and the treatment of minorities. This has been met with resistance from the Indian government, which views such criticism as interference in its internal affairs.

Emphasis on democratic Backsliding: Concerns about democratic backsliding in India, particularly regarding the erosion of institutional independence and civil liberties, have become more prominent in U.S. policy discussions.

Conditional Aid and Assistance: While overall aid levels remain considerable, the Biden administration has indicated a willingness to condition assistance on improvements in human rights and democratic governance.

re-engagement with Multilateral Institutions: A renewed focus on multilateralism and international cooperation, including rejoining the world Health Institution and the Paris Agreement, has also indirectly impacted the U.S.-India relationship, as India often prioritizes bilateral engagement.

The Role of Key Players & Influencers

The dynamic isn’t solely governmental. Individuals with close ties to both nations play a role. For example, figures like Massad Boulos, a Lebanese-American businessman and Tiffany Trump’s father-in-law, who reportedly aimed to be a key liaison on Lebanese affairs during the Trump administration, represent a network of influence that has diminished with the change in power. While Boulos’s direct impact on the broader U.S.-India relationship is limited, his case illustrates the shifting landscape of informal diplomacy.

Geopolitical Realities: China and the indo-Pacific

Despite the diplomatic cooling, the underlying geopolitical realities that initially drove the Trump-Modi alliance remain. China’s continued assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region continues to be a major concern for both Washington and New Delhi.

Maintaining the Quad: The Biden administration has reaffirmed its commitment to the Quad, recognizing its importance as a mechanism for regional security cooperation.

strengthening Defense Ties: Despite the broader policy shift, defense cooperation between the U.S. and India continues to expand, with ongoing joint military exercises and arms sales.

Navigating the Russia-Ukraine Conflict: India’s neutral stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict has presented a challenge for the U.S., which has sought to isolate Russia and impose sanctions. this divergence in foreign policy has further strained the relationship.

Economic Implications: Trade and Investment

the economic dimension of the U.S.-India relationship is also undergoing a reassessment. While both nations recognize the potential for increased trade and investment, disagreements over trade barriers and intellectual property rights persist.

Trade Deal Stalled: The comprehensive trade deal that was under negotiation during the Trump administration remains stalled, with little progress made under the Biden administration.

* Investment Flows: despite the trade impasse, investment flows between the U.S. and India remain robust, with U.S. companies continuing to invest in India’