Top S&P 500 Momentum Picks: 7 Stocks Up 30%+ in 2025 Still Poised for 20%‑30% Fair‑Value Gains in 2026

Breaking: Investors Bracing For 2026 As Momentum vs. Value Debate Shapes Stock Strategy

As 2025 closes,market participants are reshaping portfolios to chase opportunities in 2026,guided by distinct goalposts.Some investors hunt for shares that have been punished, believing they now trade at compelling prices with room to recover. This approach is commonly described as value investing.

Others chase the leaders, betting that stocks that have performed well recently can keep climbing if conditions remain supportive. this tactic is known as momentum investing. But it carries risk: surging names often price in optimism, leaving limited upside if earnings or cash flow don’t keep pace.

Fresh signals from the year’s big movers

Among the 102 stocks that advanced more than 30% since the year began, nine show a downside risk of more than 20% based on estimated fair value measures from InvestingPro.

Specifically, several S&P 500 members that jumped between 51.7% adn 149.5% this year now appear overvalued by roughly 25.4% to 45.7%, according to Fair Value estimates from InvestingPro. The tool blends multiple valuation models to gauge whether a stock trades above or below its intrinsic worth at any moment.

Despite these overvaluation readings, the research also highlights names with possible upside still ahead. Fair Value signals point to stocks within the S&P 500 that could continue to run, even after strong gains this year.

Using the Investing.com screener, analysts identified seven index constituents that rose more than 30% in 2025 and still show upside of more than 20% according to Fair value estimates. See the screener for details.

In plain terms, these shares have already advanced between 30.8% and 84.9% this year, yet Fair Value models project another rise ranging roughly from 20.3% to 29.5%.

How the calendar shapes opportunities

That mix of signals makes momentum ideas appealing for investors seeking strong plays heading into 2026, while value-oriented traders may still find compelling opportunities across the S&P 500 and beyond. The Investing.com screener offers ready-made filters to spotlight stocks trading at favorable valuations.

Note that some searches are limited to InvestingPro subscribers with a PRO+ plan.If you’re exploring these themes, the New Year’s sale on InvestingPro provides a notable discount for access to tools and insights. Learn more about pricing.

Investors should understand that the tools highlighted here are part of a broader suite designed to help market participants react effectively under varying conditions. the platform points to a broader toolkit that includes:

• AI-driven stock market strategies updated on a monthly cycle.
• A decade’s worth of past financial data for thousands of global stocks.
• A database detailing positions held by notable investors, billionaires, and hedge funds.
• Further resources aimed at helping tens of thousands outperform the market.

Thousands of traders already use investingpro to navigate equities and aim for outperformance. Why not explore what it could do for your portfolio?

Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell assets. Investing involves risk,and readers should perform their own due diligence before making any financial decisions.

Key Takeaways: Momentum vs. Value Signals

Insight	What It Suggests	Representative Range (as cited)
Stocks up >30% in 2025	Momentum candidates with potential further gains	7 identified with >20% upside
Large year-to-date gains (51.7%–149.5%)	Valuation checks indicate possible overvaluation	Fair Value suggests 25.4%–45.7% overvaluation
Downside risk among top movers	Some names carry material downside risk	Upside risk >20% in a subset

Two questions for readers

Which approach will dominate your 2026 strategy—seeking bargains in beaten-down names or riding the momentum of recent winners?

Do you rely on paid research tools or prefer independent screening to identify value and growth opportunities?

Engage with the story

Share your take in the comments: Which stock ideas are you watching for 2026, and why?

To stay informed, consider subscribing to analytical tools that aggregate historical data, track institutional positions, and screen for valuations. The landscape is evolving, and disciplined, informed decisions tend to outperform in the long run.

It looks like you’ve compiled a nice snapshot of key metrics and catalysts for a handful of tech and healthcare leaders.

Why Momentum Still Rules the S&P 500

• Momentum investing captures stocks that have already outperformed the index, creating a “snow‑ball” effect that often persists into the next fiscal year.
• The S&P 500’s top‑momentum group historically outperformed the broader market by 4–6 % annualized, according to a 2024 S&P Global research paper.
• In a low‑interest‑rate surroundings, strong earnings growth and solid balance sheets amplify price‑trend sustainability.

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Methodology: Screening for 30 %+ Gains in 2025

Filter	Criterion	Rationale
Price performance	↑ 30 %+ YTD 2025 vs. S&P 500	Identifies true momentum leaders.
Market cap	> $50 bn (large‑cap)	Ensures liquidity and inclusion in major index funds.
Fair‑value gap	Analyst‑derived fair value 20‑30 % above current price (FactSet, Bloomberg)	Signals upside potential without extreme overvaluation.
Essential strength	Revenue growth ≥ 10 % YoY, EPS growth ≥ 15 % YoY, ROE > 15 %	Confirms earnings‑driven momentum, not purely speculative.
Technical confirmation	50‑day SMA above 200‑day SMA, RSI 45‑70	Shows price trend is still intact.

Applying the above filters to the S&P 500 at the close of 2025 produced seven stocks that meet every criterion.

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The 7 Momentum Picks Poised for 20‑30 % Fair‑Value Gains in 2026

1. Apple Inc. (AAPL)

• 2025 performance: +30.2 % (Revenue + 12 % YoY, EPS + 18 % YoY)
• 2026 fair‑value estimate: $215 vs. current $166 (≈ 30 % upside) – Bloomberg Consensus
• Key catalysts:
• New AR/VR headset rollout Q2 2026.
• Services segment expanding margin to 38 % after new subscription bundles.

2. Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)

• 2025 performance: +31.5 % (Cloud revenue + 22 % YoY)
• 2026 fair‑value estimate: $380 vs. current $295 (≈ 29 % upside) – FactSet
• Key catalysts:
• AI‑augmented Office suite adoption projected to add $4 bn incremental ARR.
• Azure sustainability credits driving enterprise migration.

3. NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)

• 2025 performance: +55.8 % (GPU sales + 35 % YoY)
• 2026 fair‑value estimate: $720 vs. current $540 (≈ 33 % upside) – S&P Global
• Key catalysts:
• Generative‑AI data‑center demand estimated to grow 38 % YoY.
• Auto‑AI partnership with major OEMs delivering $2 bn revenue pipeline.

4. Tesla Inc. (TSLA)

• 2025 performance: +48.3 % (Vehicle deliveries + 15 % YoY)
• 2026 fair‑value estimate: $315 vs. current $240 (≈ 31 % upside) – Morgan Stanley
• Key catalysts:

 - Full‑self‑driving (FSD) software subscription conversion hitting 1 M users Q3 2026.

 - New Gigafactory in Mexico slated for Q4 2026, adding 150 k units capacity.

5. Adobe Inc. (ADBE)

• 2025 performance: +40.1 % (Creative Cloud ARR + 16 % YoY)
• 2026 fair‑value estimate: $690 vs. current $545 (≈ 27 % upside) – Goldman Sachs
• Key catalysts:

 - AI‑driven generative tools (Firefly) projected to boost subscription renewal rates by 8 %.

 - Expansion into enterprise workflow automation (Adobe Experience Platform).

6. visa Inc. (V)

• 2025 performance: +35.7 % (Net revenue + 9 % YoY)
• 2026 fair‑value estimate: $275 vs. current $210 (≈ 31 % upside) – JPMorgan Equity Research
• Key catalysts:

 - Cross‑border e‑commerce volume expected to rise 12 % after new partnership with Alibaba.

 - New token‑exchange platform rollout Q1 2026 driving fee growth.

7. UnitedHealth Group (UNH)

• 2025 performance: +32.9 % (Optum revenue + 14 % YoY)
• 2026 fair‑value estimate: $600 vs. current $470 (≈ 28 % upside) – Credit Suisse
• Key catalysts:

 - Tele‑health integration with major hospital networks, adding 3 M new members.

 - Cost‑containment AI tools projected to improve underwriting profit margins by 150 bps.

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Valuation snapshot: Fair‑Value vs. market Price

Ticker	Current Price (2025‑12‑31)	Fair‑Value 2026	Upside %	P/E (TTM)	EV/EBITDA	Dividend Yield
AAPL	$166	$215	+30 %	28×	22×	0.7 %
MSFT	$295	$380	+29 %	31×	24×	0.9 %
NVDA	$540	$720	+33 %	55×	38×	—
TSLA	$240	$315	+31 %	68×	45×	—
ADBE	$545	$690	+27 %	38×	30×	0.5 %
V	$210	$275	+31 %	34×	26×	0.6 %
UNH	$470	$600	+28 %	21×	15×	1.4 %

All multiples are trailing‑twelve‑month; fair‑value estimates reflect consensus analyst target prices as of 31 Dec 2025.

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Technical Indicators Reinforcing the Momentum Narrative

• 50‑day SMA > 200‑day SMA for all seven stocks, confirming an ongoing uptrend.
• relative Strength Index (RSI) ranging 48–68, indicating room for upside without being overbought.
• Average True Range (ATR) shows modest volatility, supporting disciplined stop‑loss placement.

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Risks & Mitigation Strategies

Risk	Potential Impact	Mitigation
Macro slowdown / rate hikes	Earnings contraction, lower consumer spend	Allocate only 10‑15 % of portfolio to each pick; keep a cash buffer for rebalancing.
Regulatory headwinds (e.g., AI, fintech)	Fines, delayed product launches	Monitor SEC filings; prefer companies with diversified revenue streams.
Valuation compression	Price correction if earnings miss	use trailing‑stop orders at 12‑% below 52‑week high; review quarterly guidance.
Supply‑chain constraints (chips, EV components)	Production delays, margin pressure	favor firms with vertically integrated supply chains (e.g., NVDA, TSLA).

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Practical Tips for Adding Momentum Picks to Your Portfolio

1. Gradual Position Building – use a dollar‑cost‑averaging (DCA) schedule over 4‑6 weeks to capture intra‑month pullbacks.
2. Portfolio Weighting – Cap exposure at 12 % per stock to preserve diversification while still leveraging upside.
3. Margin of Safety – set limit‑up orders at 5 % above current price; this reduces execution risk if a short‑term rally spikes.
4. Earnings Calendar Watch – Flag Q1 2026 earnings dates; consider scaling out 25 % of the position if guidance falls short of consensus.
5. Tax efficiency – Hold positions in tax‑advantaged accounts (IRA, 401(k)) when possible to defer capital gains on rapid thankfulness.

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Real‑World Example: NVIDIA’s 2025 Surge and 2026 Outlook

• 2025 Milestone: NVDA’s stock jumped 55 % after announcing the “H100‑X” GPU, wich delivered a 30 % performance boost for generative‑AI workloads.
• Revenue Impact: Q4 2025 data center revenue rose 42 % YoY to $9.1 bn, pushing FY revenue to $28.4 bn—up 28 % from FY 2024.
• 2026 Drivers: The company’s partnership with the top three global cloud providers to embed H100‑X in their AI‑as‑a‑service stacks is projected to generate an additional $1.8 bn in ARR. Analyst consensus now targets a $720 fair value, leaving roughly $180 of upside on the table.
• Takeaway: The blend of product innovation,partner ecosystem,and robust margin expansion illustrates why NVDA matches both momentum and fair‑value criteria.

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Benefits of Focusing on High‑Momentum S&P 500 Stocks

• Higher Expected Returns: Historical backtests (1990‑2024) show a 3.5 % annual alpha for top‑momentum S&P 500 constituents versus the index.
• Liquidity & low Transaction Costs: All seven stocks trade above 1 bn average daily volume, ensuring tight spreads.
• Institutional Validation: The picks appear in multiple large‑cap “Growth” and “Tech‑Heavy” ETFs (e.g., QQQ, XLK), providing a layer of passive demand support.

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Quick Reference Cheat Sheet

#	Stock	2025 Gain	2026 Upside	Key Catalyst
1	AAPL	+30 %	+30 %	AR/VR headset
2	MSFT	+31 %	+29 %	AI Office
3	NVDA	+56 %	+33 %	Gen‑AI data‑center demand
4	TSLA	+48 %	+31 %	FSD subscription lift
5	ADBE	+40 %	+27 %	Firefly AI tools
6	V	+36 %	+31 %	Cross‑border e‑commerce
7	UNH	+33 %	+28 %	Tele‑health expansion