Washington D.C. – President Trump is signaling a sweeping ambition to reshape Iran following recent military actions, extending beyond battlefield tactics to encompass the country’s political and economic future. This approach echoes, and attempts to replicate, the strategy employed in Venezuela earlier this year, though experts caution that the circumstances are markedly different. The administration’s actions reach as oil prices fluctuate and a high-stakes trade meeting with China looms, adding layers of complexity to the unfolding situation.
At the core of this new strategy are three key pledges Trump has publicly articulated regarding Iran. These range from directly influencing the selection of the next Supreme Leader to offering assurances of safety to members of the Iranian military who lay down their arms, and attempting to stabilize global oil markets amidst escalating tensions. The moves represent a significant departure from traditional American foreign policy, prioritizing direct intervention over diplomatic negotiation.
Selecting Iran’s Next Leader
President Trump has made clear his intention to play a role in determining Iran’s next Supreme Leader, acknowledging Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the recently deceased Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as the likely successor but stating his opposition to that outcome. He told Axios he intends to be involved in the appointment, “like with Delcy in Venezuela,” referencing the installation of Delcy Rodríguez as Venezuela’s vice-president following the capture of Nicolás Maduro in January. This echoes a historical precedent, with some observers drawing parallels to the 1953 U.S.-backed coup that installed Mohammad Reza Pahlavi as Shah, a move that ultimately contributed to the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
However, experts warn that replicating the Venezuelan scenario in Iran will be far more challenging. Daniel Schneiderman, director of global policy programs at Penn Washington, noted that “The size, scope and scale of Iran’s military and also the way the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is endemic in everyday life” presents a significantly different landscape than Venezuela. Schneiderman, a former Defense Department official, added that Tehran had “a long time to prepare” for conflict, making a swift and easily controlled leadership transition unlikely. He suggested that the White House may be aiming for a “solid enough” outcome, similar to the situation in Venezuela, but acknowledged the “political costs” of achieving even that limited goal.
Assurances of “Total Immunity”
In a move aimed at fracturing the Iranian security apparatus, Trump urged members of the IRGC, military, and police to “lay down their arms,” promising “perfectly safe with total immunity, or you’ll face absolutely guaranteed death.” This offer, while potentially destabilizing, is viewed with skepticism by some analysts. Srinjoy Bose, an associate professor of international relations at Australia’s University of New South Wales, cautioned that there’s “no guarantee” that Iranians who choose to oppose the regime will actually be protected by Trump or the international community.
Schneiderman called the offer “an important signal,” but stressed the need for “real substance behind it.” He questioned the extent to which the administration is prepared to back up these assurances with concrete support and protection for those who might take up the offer.
Stabilizing Oil Prices
The conflict in Iran has already begun to disrupt global oil markets, prompting the Trump administration to take steps to mitigate the impact on consumers. Trump has offered “political risk insurance and guarantees” for energy tankers navigating the crucial shipping lanes in the region, and indicated that further action to “dramatically increase the stability” of the Middle East, oil prices, and stock markets is “imminent,” though specifics remain undisclosed. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a 30-day waiver on Thursday allowing India to resume purchasing Russian oil, a move previously halted as part of a tariff agreement.
Despite these efforts, oil and gasoline prices rose on Friday, with gas prices up nearly 11% since the start of the conflict. Schneiderman pointed to this as an example of the “unintended strategic consequences” of military intervention, highlighting the importance of thorough planning and consideration of second- and third-order effects before initiating such actions.
As the situation in Iran continues to evolve, the administration’s commitment to these three pledges – influencing the succession, offering immunity, and stabilizing oil markets – will be closely watched. The success of these efforts remains uncertain, particularly given the complexities of Iranian politics and the potential for unintended consequences. The upcoming meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping in China will likely be heavily influenced by the ongoing crisis, adding another layer of uncertainty to the geopolitical landscape.
The coming weeks will be critical in determining the trajectory of events in Iran and the broader implications for regional stability. Further developments are expected regarding the selection of a new Supreme Leader, the response of the Iranian military to Trump’s offer of immunity, and the administration’s efforts to manage the economic fallout from the conflict. Share your thoughts on these developments in the comments below.
