The Unshifting Economy: Why Trump’s Economic Polling Plunge Doesn’t Guarantee Political Fallout
Just 26% of Americans believe the economy is in good or excellent shape – a number stubbornly consistent since 2023. This isn’t a new phenomenon, and it’s a critical detail often lost in the headlines surrounding Donald Trump’s plummeting economic approval ratings. While voters are increasingly blaming Trump for persistent inflation and high prices, the reality is far more nuanced: the economic landscape under a potential second Trump administration may look remarkably similar to the one voters are currently frustrated with under Biden.
The Paradox of Trump’s Economic Approval
For years, Donald Trump enjoyed a peculiar advantage: voters largely separated their overall disapproval of his persona from their belief in his economic competence. Polling consistently showed a disconnect, with many acknowledging his controversial behavior while still trusting him to “handle the economy.” That dynamic has dramatically reversed. Recent polls from CNBC and Quinnipiac University show Trump’s net economic approval at all-time lows – minus 13 and minus 19 points respectively. The Economist/YouGov poll is even more stark, revealing a -34 point net approval on “inflation/prices.”
Inflation: The Core of the Discontent
Voters aren’t simply unhappy with “the economy” in abstract terms; they’re feeling the pinch of high prices directly. This anger fueled Trump’s initial rise, as he tapped into frustration with the status quo. Ironically, his current economic policies – particularly his continued advocacy for tariffs – are likely to exacerbate the very problem that propelled him to power. Tariffs, while intended to protect domestic industries, ultimately increase costs for consumers by making imported goods more expensive.
A Familiar Economic Picture
Despite Trump’s rhetoric about restoring a bygone economic era, the underlying fundamentals bear a striking resemblance to the Biden economy he routinely criticized. Both periods share key characteristics: GDP growth, a robust stock market (though some analysts warn of an potential AI-driven bubble), and relatively low unemployment. The critical difference lies in the persistent high prices and elevated interest rates – issues that predate the current administration and are proving difficult to resolve.
The Tariff Trap
Trump’s economic agenda isn’t focused on lowering prices; it’s geared towards reshaping trade relationships, even at the expense of consumer affordability. His recent call to import more beef from Argentina, while framed as a consumer-friendly move, highlights a broader pattern of interventionist policies. While he urged US ranchers to “get their prices down,” his broader trade policies create conditions that make lower prices less likely. Coupled with his desire to lower interest rates (potentially undermining the Federal Reserve’s efforts to control inflation) and his proposals for large-scale deportations (which would disrupt the labor market), Trump’s economic vision appears to prioritize political goals over economic stability.
Partisan Polarization and Economic Perception
Interestingly, the shift in economic perception isn’t necessarily a sign of widespread disillusionment with the economy itself. Pew Research Center data reveals a partisan swap: Democrats are now more likely to view the economy negatively under Trump, while Republicans are more likely to see it favorably. However, this shift largely cancels itself out, resulting in an overall stagnation in public sentiment. This suggests that economic assessments are increasingly filtered through a political lens, rather than reflecting objective conditions.
Why Trump’s Economic Woes May Not Matter
Despite the dismal polling numbers, Trump remains surprisingly resilient politically. He’s currently more popular than he was at this point in his first term, even with his economic approval in freefall. This suggests that factors beyond economic performance – such as cultural anxieties and distrust in institutions – are playing a significant role in shaping voter preferences. The electorate appears willing to overlook economic concerns if they believe Trump will address other priorities.
Looking Ahead: A Cycle of Disappointment?
The current situation presents a troubling paradox. Voters elected Trump, in part, to fix an economy they disliked. But his proposed solutions risk perpetuating the very problems they hoped he would solve. The economic fundamentals remain stubbornly similar under both administrations, suggesting that a quick fix is unlikely. The real story isn’t about a dramatic shift in economic conditions, but about a persistent disconnect between voter expectations and political realities. The question isn’t whether Trump *can* deliver on his economic promises, but whether voters will continue to prioritize other factors over their wallets.
What are your predictions for the future of the US economy under a potential second Trump administration? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
