Europe’s High-Stakes Gamble: Can a United Front With Zelenskyy Tame Trump’s Foreign Policy?
The sheer volume of European leaders descending on Washington alongside Volodymyr Zelenskyy isn’t just a show of solidarity – it’s a calculated risk. With President Trump having already signaled a willingness to negotiate with Russia without fully including Ukraine, the coordinated trip represents a desperate attempt to reassert Western influence and prevent a potentially disastrous outcome for Kyiv. This isn’t simply about Ukraine; it’s a bellwether for the future of transatlantic relations and the stability of the European security order.
The Shadow of the Putin Summit
The exclusion of Zelenskyy from Friday’s summit with Vladimir Putin sent shockwaves through European capitals. It wasn’t merely a diplomatic snub; it was perceived as a clear indication of Trump’s potential willingness to prioritize a deal with Moscow, even at Ukraine’s expense. As retired French Gen. Dominique Trinquand noted, the European response is driven by a fear of repeating the contentious Oval Office encounter from February 2025, where Trump reportedly berated Zelenskyy. This time, Europe is determined to present a united front, hoping to leverage collective strength in dealing with a predictably unpredictable U.S. president.
A Power Play Designed for Trump’s Ear
The strategy is transparent: surround Zelenskyy with high-profile European leaders – Ursula von der Leyen, Mark Rutte, Emmanuel Macron, and Friedrich Merz – to demonstrate unwavering support and signal the high stakes involved. This isn’t about subtle diplomacy; it’s a deliberate attempt to appeal to Trump’s transactional nature and his apparent responsiveness to displays of power. The presence of these leaders isn’t necessarily about participating directly in the talks, but about creating a visual and political pressure that Trump can’t ignore. The goal is to make any concessions to Russia that disadvantage Ukraine politically untenable for the U.S. president.
The Risk of a Railroaded Peace Deal
Kyiv and many European capitals fear that Trump, eager to claim a foreign policy victory before the next election, might push Ukraine towards a peace deal that cedes territory or compromises its sovereignty. The concern is that a quick resolution, brokered primarily by the U.S. and Russia, could leave Ukraine vulnerable and embolden further Russian aggression. This is why Europe is so insistent on having a voice in the process – to ensure that any potential agreement aligns with Ukraine’s long-term security interests and doesn’t simply reward Russian expansionism. The concept of ongoing conflict resolution is central to this concern, as a rushed deal could destabilize the region for decades.
Beyond Ukraine: The Future of Transatlantic Security
The current situation extends far beyond the immediate fate of Ukraine. It’s a test of the transatlantic alliance and a harbinger of potential challenges to come. If Trump is perceived to prioritize deals with authoritarian regimes over the concerns of his allies, it could erode trust and encourage other nations to question the reliability of U.S. security commitments. This could lead to a more fragmented and unstable global order, with Europe forced to take on a greater share of the security burden. The implications for NATO are particularly significant, as a weakened alliance would be less capable of deterring aggression and defending its members.
The Potential for a Two-Track Approach
One possible outcome is a two-track approach: Trump pursuing bilateral negotiations with Putin while simultaneously facing pressure from Europe to support Ukraine. This could lead to a complex and unpredictable dynamic, with competing agendas and potential for miscalculation. Another scenario is that Trump, swayed by the European display of unity, might moderate his stance and adopt a more balanced approach. However, given his track record, this seems less likely. The key will be whether Europe can effectively translate its collective pressure into concrete concessions from the U.S. president.
The coming days will be critical. The meeting between Trump, Zelenskyy, and the European leaders will likely set the tone for the future of the conflict in Ukraine and the broader transatlantic relationship. The stakes are incredibly high, and the outcome remains uncertain. What role will domestic political pressures in the US play in shaping the outcome of these talks? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
