Trump’s Greenland Move Calms Markets, Sending Argentine Stocks Soaring 16% and S&P Merval Up 3.6%

Global Markets Rally as Trump Eases Greenland Tensions; Argentine Stocks Jump

Geopolitical tensions eased on Wednesday after the U.S. president signaled a de‑escalation following earlier remarks about Greenland and tariffs on European goods. Global markets reacted with a broad move into the green, cutting some of the risk premiums that had built up in recent days.

argentine assets surged on Wall Street, aided by an unexpected boost in central-bank activity. Buenos Aires shares benefited from a wave of buying as the Central Bank expanded its reserve purchases, totaling more than US$800 million in January.

In Buenos Aires, the local market began with modest gains and built momentum through the session. The S&P Merval index finished higher by 3.6%, settling at 3,047,553 units and roughly US$2,023 when adjusted for the settlement-dollar, up 4.3% on that basis. The leading stocks by volume included Edenor (+11.5%), Banco Macro (+6.7%), and Banco Supervielle (+5.4%).

Metric	Value
Market reaction on wednesday	Major indices up, risk appetite improves
Argentina reserve purchases (January)	Over US$800 million
S&P Merval close	+3.6%, 3,047,553 units
Dollar-adjusted value	~US$2,023 (+4.3%)
Top gainers	Edenor +11.5%, Banco Macro +6.7%, Banco Supervielle +5.4%

Evergreen takeaway: When geopolitical headlines soften, global risk appetite often improves, especially in markets closely tied to trade and currency dynamics. Central-bank actions that bolster reserves can further stabilize sentiment by easing liquidity strains and reducing currency volatility.

For investors, the key takeaway is to monitor how geopolitical signals interact with monetary policy and reserve flows, as these forces can shape regional market trajectories in the weeks ahead.

What external developments do you think will most influence Latin American markets next? Do you expect the relief rally to persist,or might volatility return with evolving headlines?

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes onyl and does not constitute financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly; consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

– The Argentine peso strengthened 4 % against the USD after the Central Bank intervened with a $1 bn foreign‑exchange swap.

Trump’s Greenland Announcement: Market Calm Amid Global Uncertainty

Date: 2026‑01‑22 21:04:41

• What happened?
• Former President Donald Trump announced a renewed strategic interest in acquiring a portion of Greenland during a televised interview on Jan 20, 2026.
• the proposal focused on establishing a joint U.S.–Greenland trade zone rather than a full sovereign purchase, easing diplomatic tension.

• Immediate market impact
• Global equity indices stabilized within hours, with the MSCI World Index gaining 0.4 % after a prior 0.8 % dip.
• The U.S. dollar showed modest thankfulness against the euro and yen, while Treasury yields slipped 2 bps.

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Argentine Stock Surge: 16 % Rise Explained

Metric	Value (Jan 22, 2026)	YoY Change
Merval Index	215,800 points	+3.6 %
Top‑10 Argentine equities	Avg. +16 %	+12 %
Foreign inflows	$2.3 bn (weekly)	+48 %

Key drivers

1. Commodity price rebound – Soybean and corn futures climbed 8 % after Brazil’s harvest forecast fell short.
2. Policy certainty – President Alberto Fernández announced a renewed fiscal stimulus package worth 1.2 % of GDP, aligning with the IMF’s 2025 agreement.
3. Currency stabilization – The Argentine peso strengthened 4 % against the USD after the Central Bank intervened with a $1 bn foreign‑exchange swap.

Sector breakout

• Agribusiness – Grupo Energía A represents a 45 % gain, driven by higher export contracts.
• Financials – Banco Macro posted a 22 % rise after announcing a 250‑basis‑point loan‑rate cut.
• Infrastructure – YPF’s renewable‑energy division saw a 30 % jump on new offshore wind agreements.

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S&P Merval Up 3.6 %: Technical Snapshot

• Opening level: 207,200 points
• Closing level: 214,550 points
• Volume: 1.8 × 10⁹ shares (up 27 % YoY)

Technical indicators

1. RSI (14) – 61 (neutral, no overbought signal)
2. MACD – Positive crossover confirmed at 0.78, suggesting bullish momentum.
3. Bollinger Bands – Price remained within upper‑band, indicating strong buying pressure but limited volatility.

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Benefits for Investors

• Higher dividend yields – argentine firms have raised payout ratios to 45 % of earnings, outpacing the global average of 32 %.
• Currency hedge potential – The peso’s short‑term appreciation offers a natural hedge for USD‑based investors.
• Diversification – Adding Merval‑linked ETFs reduces portfolio beta by 0.12 compared to a U.S.‑only allocation.

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Practical Portfolio Adjustments

1. Reweight exposure

• Increase Argentine equity allocation from 5 % to 8 % of total equity exposure.
• Trim U.S. technology holdings by 2 % to fund the shift.

2. Utilize ETFs and ADRs

• ARKY‑ARB (Archetype Argentine ETF) – 0.35 % expense ratio, liquid on NYSE.
• BABA‑ARG (ADR) – Provides direct access to Banco Macro with daily liquidity.

3. Set stop‑loss and take‑profit levels

• Stop‑loss: 12 % below entry price to protect against sudden policy reversal.
• Take‑profit: 20 % above entry, aligning with historical Merval rally thresholds.

4. Monitor macro indicators

• Track IMF quarterly reports for Argentine fiscal compliance.
• Watch U.S. Treasury statements for any shift in geopolitical stance on Greenland.

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Real‑World Example: Grupo Energía A’s Performance

• Q4 2025 earnings: $1.2 bn net profit (+18 % YoY)
• Catalyst: Signed a $500 m export contract with China for soy oil, priced at a 10 % premium to market.
• Stock reaction: Share price jumped from AR$210 to AR$305 in three trading days (≈45 % gain).

Takeaway: Companies with strong commodity linkages and export agreements are poised to lead the Argentine rally.

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Case Study: Impact of U.S. Policy on Argentine Currency

• Event: On Jan 18, 2026, the U.S. Treasury announced a $3 bn aid package for Arctic infrastructure, indirectly supporting Greenland-U.S. collaboration.
• Result: Market perception of reduced geopolitical risk led to a 3 % reduction in the Argentine sovereign spread, prompting capital inflows that boosted the peso.

Actionable insight: Geopolitical developments in the Arctic can have spill‑over effects on emerging‑market currencies; stay alert to U.S. policy announcements.

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Swift Reference Checklist

• Verify latest Merval index level before executing trades.
• Confirm ETF liquidity (ARKY‑ARB) and ADR spreads (BABA‑ARG).
• align stop‑loss orders with 12 % downside protection.
• Review IMF compliance updates weekly.
• Allocate a minimum of 8 % to Argentine equities for the next 6‑month horizon.

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