Breaking: Global Order under Strain as Trump Return Sparks Fresh Geopolitical Debate
A high-profile policy forum in Santiago gathered leading scholars and policymakers to assess the international consequences of the United States’ renewed presidency, exactly one year after the commander-in-chief returned to the White House.
The discussion drew on a new volume that charts the first 25 years of the 21st century—from the post-Cold War era to the AI economy—through a series of conversations with a Chilean senator and a diplomat who leads a center on China studies. The exchange formed the backbone of the event,hosted by the Institute of International Studies and the Permanent Foreign Policy forum,with additional contributions from experts on Latin American policy.
Participants reflected on how the US remains a pivotal power—shaping the international system even as it questions it. The senator described the United States as the largest country not only in territory but also in production and as the force that helps define the world order, even as Trump’s rhetoric and decisions inject uncertainty.
“The system has proved more resilient than some predicted, but it is being tested,” he said, pointing to episodes from Venezuela to Greenland as evidence of an unpredictable leadership approach that could shake established norms.
Economically,the world keeps moving,but not in the direction many had anticipated. The panel noted that the war in Ukraine and the Gaza conflict persist, with Venezuela added to the long list of pressing concerns. Rumors of a possible peace alignment between the United States and China—possibly drawing in Germany and France—highlight a reshaped power map in which Latin America would be embedded in U.S. influence, even as its own resources remain a focal point for competition.
Key perspectives
A commentary from a regional expert emphasized that US-Europe tensions over Greenland have already triggered quick market responses, including declines in stock indices and the dollar’s value. The analyst argued that economic rationality and ideological narratives no longer drive conflicts as they once did and warned that tariff policy under Trump may be weaponized in ways that complicate real economies.
Tracing tariff history, the expert noted initial aims such as curbing fentanyl and illegal immigration, then deficits and growth, followed by punitive moves against certain partners. Tariffs are now viewed as tools of political leverage that may not reflect underlying economic realities.
The conversation also turned to the race for natural resources. Observers warned that competition for copper—crucial for electrification and defense—could create a 50% supply gap by 2040, with production peaking around 2030 as Asia’s demand climbs.Global growth is projected to slip from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, further shading the outlook for all economies, including the United States.
As for Chile, experts cautioned that while bilateral ties with the United states have been well managed, the country is not a priority for Washington. The geopolitical picture now points to a fragmented multipolar order, in which overlapping centers of influence coexist with a more uncertain liberal framework. The evolving US stance could leave Chile with less predictability and a need for principled,multilateral strategies to cushion power imbalances.
Summary table: Key dynamics at a glance
| Topic | Key Point | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| US Role | Raw influence in the global system persists, even as leadership questions emerge | Markets and alliances face volatility |
| Global Order | Fragmented multipolarity with overlapping spheres | Uncertainty in rules and cooperation |
| Tariffs | Deployed as political instruments, beyond customary trade policy | Heightens economic risk and shifts alliances |
| Copper Supply | 50% deficit projected by 2040; production peaks by 2030 | Affects commodity markets and infrastructure investment |
| Global Growth | 3.2% (2025) slipping to 2.9% (2026) | Enterprises adjust strategies and governments recalibrate policies |
| Chile-US Ties | Managed but not US priority | Requires proactive diplomacy and diversified partnerships |
Evergreen insights for a changing world
In a time of shifting power centers, smaller and mid-sized economies benefit from reinforcing multilateral ties and adhering to shared rules. Technological progress, especially in artificial intelligence, will keep reshaping how states compete for resources and influence.Sound policy will hinge on diversification, obvious governance, and resilience in supply chains to weather sudden shifts in leadership or markets.
Reader engagement
- Which factor will most influence the liberal international order in the coming decade—power shifts, technology, or tariff politics?
- How should Chile navigate a potentially fragmented multipolar system to safeguard its interests?
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