The Fading American Shield: How Europe and Turkey Must Navigate a New Security Landscape
The post-Cold War security order is fracturing. With the United States increasingly focused inward, Europe faces a stark reality: its decades-long reliance on American protection is no longer guaranteed. This shift isn’t merely a geopolitical observation; it’s a strategic imperative demanding a fundamental reassessment of European defense capabilities – and a difficult conversation about the role of a pivotal, yet often ambivalent, partner: Turkey.
The Turkey Conundrum: Beyond Simple Alliances
Western policy towards Turkey often falls into predictable traps. Some envision Ankara as a potential replacement for the US security umbrella, a notion demonstrably unrealistic given Turkey’s own regional entanglements in Syria, Iraq, and the Caucasus. Others dismiss Turkey entirely, a shortsighted approach that ignores its significant military capacity and strategic location. A pragmatic assessment requires acknowledging both Turkey’s strengths and limitations. While Turkey possesses a capable military, it’s unlikely to overextend itself on behalf of a continent it doesn’t inherently see as its primary security concern.
Europe’s Path to Autonomy: Lessons from Israel
The most sensible course for Europe isn’t to seek a substitute protector, but to bolster its own defenses. This doesn’t necessarily mean a massive increase in troop numbers – a costly and time-consuming endeavor. Instead, Europe can learn from Israel, a nation that maintains a formidable military posture without relying on large-scale foreign deployments. Investing in advanced technology and focusing on specialized capabilities will be crucial. This requires a shift in mindset, particularly in Germany, where foreign policy is often framed by moral considerations rather than a clear-eyed assessment of national interests.
Reviving the Intermarium: A Risky Gambit?
One frequently discussed idea is the revival of the Intermarium – a geopolitical concept dating back to the 1930s, envisioning a bloc of nations from Finland to Turkey designed to counter Russian influence. While appealing in theory, the Intermarium’s success hinges on Turkey’s willingness to distance itself from Moscow. This is a significant hurdle. Turkey’s dependence on Russian natural gas and its shared geopolitical neighborhood with Russia create strong incentives for maintaining ties. However, the potential for increased natural gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea, coupled with investments in renewable energy sources, could lessen Ankara’s energy dependence.
Tactical Cooperation Over Strategic Alliance: A Realistic Framework
Given Turkey’s transactional approach to diplomacy – prioritizing national interests over ideological alignment – a deep strategic alliance with Europe appears unlikely. The most realistic path forward is tactical cooperation, focusing on areas where interests converge. Defense industry collaboration offers a prime example. Turkey excels at cost-effective military production, while Europe possesses expertise in complex systems like advanced missile technology. A mutually beneficial partnership could enhance both sides’ capabilities without requiring a fundamental realignment of geopolitical priorities.
Leveraging Turkish Expertise: Beyond Traditional Warfare
Europe currently lacks specialized skills that Turkey has honed through years of conflict. Turkey’s armed forces have extensive experience in guerrilla warfare, urban combat, and military training – capabilities vital in today’s asymmetric threat environment. A future European security project could leverage this expertise, potentially through joint training exercises and knowledge sharing. This isn’t about replacing the US, but about augmenting European capabilities with unique assets.
Ukraine as a Catalyst for Cooperation
Stabilizing Ukraine presents a crucial opportunity for enhanced cooperation. Turkey’s role wouldn’t involve large-scale troop deployments, but rather supporting Ukraine’s capacity building through training and equipment. This would strengthen Kyiv, create a broader security architecture stretching from Warsaw to Ankara, and potentially offer a pathway to de-escalation with Russia. A revitalized CSCE-style forum – a “CSCE 2.0” – could provide a vital diplomatic channel alongside military deterrence. The Council on Foreign Relations highlights the potential of such forums in managing tensions with Russia.
Ultimately, Europe must accept Turkey as it is: a resilient power at the crossroads of Europe and the Middle East, a partner of convenience rather than an ally of destiny. Ignoring Turkey is not an option, but neither is expecting a transformation in its core strategic interests. As the Pax Americana fades, Europe’s willingness to embrace pragmatic partnerships – even with nations that don’t share its values – will determine its future security. What steps will European leaders take to adapt to this new reality?
