Europe is rapidly transforming into a major arms manufacturer and exporter, a trend accelerated by the war in Ukraine and a surge in defense spending across the continent. While European nations have significantly increased their reliance on arms imports in recent years, latest research from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) reveals a parallel rise in their own arms production and sales. This shift suggests a growing ambition for greater strategic autonomy, even as immediate security needs continue to be met by external suppliers, particularly the United States.
Between 2021 and 2025, arms imports to European states more than tripled compared to the previous five-year period (2016-2020), according to SIPRI’s annual Arms Transfers report released on Monday. This dramatic increase coincides with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and heightened geopolitical tensions with Russia. Still, this surge in imports doesn’t advise the whole story. Beneath the surface, Europe’s own defense industry is experiencing substantial growth, challenging the long-held dominance of US arms manufacturers.
European Imports Driven by Ukraine Conflict
The demand for weaponry spurred by the war in Ukraine accounts for a significant portion of the increase in European arms imports. Katarina Djokic, a leading researcher at SIPRI, noted that Ukrainian arms imports constituted 43 percent of the overall increase in European imports over the last five years. This figure, however, only reflects direct imports to Ukraine from the US and doesn’t include arms procured on Ukraine’s behalf by other European nations, meaning the true proportion is likely even higher. Poland and the United Kingdom emerged as the largest importers of weapons within Europe during this period, reflecting their commitment to bolstering their military capabilities.
A Rising Tide of European Exports
Despite the increased reliance on imports, European arms exports are also on the rise. The combined arms exports of the 27 EU member states increased by 36 percent, outpacing the growth rates of both the United States (27 percent) and China (11 percent) over the same timeframe. SIPRI’s report indicates that European arms exports now account for 28 percent of the total global arms exports, nearly matching the 33 percent share represented by imports. This represents a substantial shift, with Europe’s export market now being four times larger than Russia’s and five times larger than China’s.
This growth in European arms exports is being fueled by increased investment in domestic defense industries. Europe has committed 150 billion euros ($175 billion as of March 9, 2026) to Security Action for Europe (SAFE), a program designed to incentivize member states to purchase weapons from other European manufacturers. More than 113 billion euros ($113 billion) of this funding has already been allocated to member states, signaling a clear commitment to strengthening the European defense industrial base. DW.com reports that Europe’s arms imports have nearly tripled, making it the world’s largest arms importer.
Russia’s Declining Influence
In contrast to Europe’s growing arms market, Russia’s share of global arms exports has plummeted, falling by 64 percent over the past five years. This decline is attributed to a combination of factors, including the demands of its own military operations in Ukraine and a loss of trust in Russian-made weaponry. General Ben Hodges, a former commander of US forces in Europe, explained that “nobody wants to buy Russian kit given that it’s been proven to be not that good… their technology has been defeated by Ukrainian technology.” Russia’s traditional clients, such as China, are also increasingly developing their own domestic defense industries, reducing their reliance on Russian imports. Al Jazeera details this shift in the global arms market.
The US Role and Future Trends
Despite Europe’s growing capabilities, the United States remains a critical supplier, accounting for 48 percent of European arms imports. Some weapons systems, such as multiple-launch rocket systems, are not currently manufactured in Europe, and there is a continued preference for what is perceived as superior US technology, including the F-35 fighter jet and the Patriot missile defense system. However, this reliance is facing scrutiny, particularly in light of shifting US foreign policy. The election of Donald Trump and his subsequent questioning of US commitments to NATO have prompted European nations to seek greater independence in defense procurement.
The European Union is now prioritizing the procurement of weapons from within the bloc, particularly for aid to Ukraine. This shift is supported by the EU’s substantial financial assistance to Ukraine, totaling 195 billion euros ($230 billion) to date, with an additional 90 billion euros ($106 billion) pledged for the next two years. Much of this funding is expected to be channeled back into the European defense industry. Hodges suggests that the transatlantic relationship is evolving, with Europeans recognizing the need to reduce their dependence on the US, especially given the potential for unpredictable shifts in US policy.
Looking ahead, the trend towards increased European arms production and exports is likely to continue, driven by ongoing geopolitical instability and a growing recognition of the need for greater strategic autonomy. While the US will likely remain a key partner, Europe is positioning itself to become a more self-sufficient and influential player in the global arms market. The SIPRI report highlights a fundamental reshaping of the international arms trade, with Europe at the center of this transformation.
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