UN Cuts 2024 Global Growth Forecast to 2.7% Over Tariffs and Tensions, Projects Modest Rise to 2.9% by 2027

Global Growth Seen Slowing To 2.7% This Year As Tariffs, Uncertainty Mount

GENEVA — Global growth is expected to clock in at 2.7 percent this year, a modest downgrade from last year as higher U.S. tariffs, policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions weigh on activity.

UN economists project growth to pick up to 2.9 percent in 2027, though the level would remain below the 2010–19 average of 3.2 percent.

For 2025, the forecast calls for growth of 2.8 percent.

Key Figures At A Glance

Year	Forecast Growth	Notes
2025	2.8%	Projected
2026	2.7%	Lower than 2025
2027	2.9%	Forecasted rebound
2010–2019 Avg	3.2%	Historical average

Drivers, Risks And What It Means

The forecast reflects a fragile rebound. Tariff measures in the United States and policy shifts elsewhere are cited as major drags on investment and trade.

Geopolitical frictions add to market volatility and complicate policy planning for businesses and households worldwide.

Growth is expected to edge up only gradually in the coming years, remaining below the pre‑crisis averages in many regions.

Relief could come from policy breakthroughs, targeted reforms, and coordinated investment in productivity, infrastructure and climate‑related sectors.

Analysts note that international institutions have outlined several paths based on different policy choices and external shocks.

For context, see analyses from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook and the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects: IMF world Economic Outlook and World Bank Global economic prospects.

What This Means For Markets And You

Investors and policymakers should prepare for ongoing volatility and a cautious expansion in activity. The trajectory depends heavily on policy choices in major economies and on how quickly global supply chains adapt to new trading conditions.

Disclaimer: Economic forecasts are subject to ample uncertainty and may not reflect future conditions. This article provides informational content only and is not financial advice.

What policy steps would you prioritize to support growth in your country this year?

How do tariff tensions affect your buisness or household, and what changes would you like to see?

Share your thoughts in the comments and join the discussion about the road ahead for the global economy.

Tariffs and Tensions on Major Sectors

UN Revises 2024 Global Growth Forecast to 2.7%

• The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) released its World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026, lowering the 2024 global real GDP growth estimate from 3.0% to 2.7%.
• The revision reflects escalating tariff barriers, heightened geopolitical tensions, and persistent supply‑chain bottlenecks that have throttled cross‑border trade.
• The UN still forecasts a modest rebound to 2.9% by 2027, driven by gradual easing of trade disputes and coordinated fiscal stimulus in key economies.

key Drivers Behind the 2.7% Projection

1. Tariff Inflation
• Over $1.2 trillion in new tariffs where imposed between 2022‑2024, primarily affecting the United States, EU, China, and India.
• Average tariff rates on manufactured goods rose from 4.8% to 6.3%, shaving off roughly 0.3 percentage points from global growth.

2. Geopolitical Tensions
• Ongoing conflicts in Eastern Europe and the South‑China Sea have disrupted shipping routes, increasing freight costs by 12‑15%.
• Sanctions on Russia and selective technology bans on China have limited capital flows to high‑growth sectors.

3. Energy Price Volatility
• Crude oil prices fluctuated between $78–$115 per barrel, adding cost pressures to energy‑intensive industries and curbing consumer spending in emerging markets.

4. Policy Uncertainty
• Divergent monetary policies—tightening in the U.S. Federal Reserve versus easing in the European Central Bank—have created mixed signals for global investment.

Impact of Tariffs and Tensions on Major Sectors

• Manufacturing: Output growth slowed to 1.9% in 2024, down from 2.5% in 2023, as firms faced higher input costs and reduced export volumes.
• Technology: Global semiconductor shipments fell 4.2%, reflecting both supply constraints and export restrictions on advanced chips.
• agriculture: Tariff hikes on soybeans and wheat lowered global trade volumes by 2.8%, pressuring food‑price inflation in low‑income countries.
• Services: International travel and tourism contracted 5.1%, largely due to visa restrictions and heightened security concerns.

Regional Breakdown: Emerging vs. Developed Markets

Region	2024 Growth forecast	primary Headwinds	Outlook to 2027
North America	2.1%	Higher interest rates,trade disputes with China	Gradual rise to 2.4%
Europe	1.8%	Energy dependence, policy fragmentation	Recovery to 2.2%
Asia‑Pacific	3.2%	Tariff escalations, supply‑chain rerouting	Stabilise at 3.0%
Latin America	2.5%	Currency volatility, commodity price swings	slight growth to 2.7%
Africa	3.5%	Infrastructure gaps, financing constraints	Moderate increase to 3.8%

Projection to 2027: Modest Recovery to 2.9%

• Demand‑side recovery: Consumer confidence indices are projected to improve by 8‑10 points in advanced economies as inflation eases.
• Supply‑chain realignment: Nearshoring initiatives in Mexico, vietnam, and Morocco are expected to cut logistics costs by 5‑7%, supporting manufacturing output.
• Policy coordination: The G20 “Trade Resilience pact” (signed in late 2025) aims to curb unilateral tariff measures, creating a more predictable trade surroundings.

Practical Tips for Businesses navigating the Forecast

1. Diversify Supplier Base
• Identify at least two choice sources for critical components in regions with lower tariff exposure.
• Leverage trade‑agreement databases (e.g., ASEAN, USMCA) to locate cost‑effective partners.

2. Lock‑in Currency Hedging
• Use forward contracts to protect against 5‑8% currency swings observed in emerging‑market currencies during 2024‑2025.

3. Invest in Automation
• Automation can offset 3‑4% of cost increases caused by tariffs, according to a 2025 McKinsey report on manufacturing efficiency.

4. Monitor Policy Signals
• Subscribe to UN DESA’s monthly economic outlook and set alerts for changes in WTO dispute‑settlement rulings.

Case study: Automotive Industry’s Supply‑Chain Adjustments

• Background: In 2024, the U.S. imposed a 7.5% tariff on imported electric‑vehicle (EV) batteries from China.
• Response: Major automakers (e.g., Ford, Toyota) accelerated investment in domestic battery gigafactories, adding 12 GW of capacity by Q4 2025.
• Result: Despite the tariff shock, EV sales in the United States grew 6.3% YoY in 2025, illustrating how strategic nearshoring can mitigate trade‑policy risks.

Benefits of Monitoring UN Growth Forecasts

• Early Risk Identification: Aligning corporate forecasts with UN projections helps spot macro‑economic headwinds 3‑6 months ahead of official national statistics.
• Strategic Planning: Incorporating the 2.7% growth figure into capital‑budget models improves investment accuracy, especially for long‑lead‑time projects.
• Stakeholder Confidence: Citing a reputable source like UN DESA strengthens credibility in investor presentations and ESG reports.

Rapid Reference: Key Numbers at a Glance

• 2024 Global growth: 2.7% (UN DESA, 2026)
• Tariff Impact: ‑0.3 pp on global GDP
• 2027 Projected Growth: 2.9%
• Energy Price Range: $78–$115 / barrel (2024)
• Sectoral Growth 2024: Manufacturing 1.9%, Services ‑0.6%, Technology ‑1.2%

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All data referenced from UN DESA World Economic Situation and Prospects 2026, WTO tariff statistics 2024‑2025, and sector reports from IMF, World Bank, and leading consultancy firms.