The Shifting Sands of APEC: How South Korea is Navigating a New US-China Order
Less than one percentage point. That’s the margin by which China currently leads the United States as South Korea’s largest trading partner – a dramatic narrowing from a nearly 15-point gap just a decade ago. This statistic isn’t just about trade figures; it’s a stark illustration of the geopolitical realignment underway in East Asia, and a signal of how quickly the old assumptions about economic dependence are being rewritten. As the US and China increasingly vie for influence, nations like South Korea are finding themselves in a precarious balancing act, one that’s reshaping regional alliances and forcing difficult choices.
From Trade Liberalism to Transactionalism: APEC’s Evolving Role
The recent Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea laid bare the tensions simmering beneath the surface of global trade. While representatives from the 21 member economies acknowledged challenges to supply chains and called for a “resilient” trade environment, the shadow of the US-China dispute loomed large. The very foundation of APEC, built on decades of US leadership promoting trade liberalism, is now being questioned. As Jeffrey Robertson, an associate professor at Yonsei University, points out, APEC’s agenda-setting power thrived in a post-Cold War era characterized by relative stability and US benevolence. That era is over.
The shift towards a more protectionist and transactional US approach complicates cooperation within APEC. Smaller regional players are caught in the middle, forced to navigate between the world’s two superpowers. This isn’t merely an economic issue; it’s a fundamental restructuring of the geopolitical landscape, with implications for security, technology, and regional stability.
South Korea’s Strategic Pivot: Beyond “Security from the US, Economy from China”
For years, South Korea has walked a tightrope, relying on the US for security and China for economic growth. However, that delicate balance is fracturing. President Lee Jae Myung’s declaration that the “U.S. for security, China for economy” approach is over signals a decisive shift. This pivot is driven by several factors, including growing economic ties with the US – cemented by a recent tariff deal involving a $350 billion investment commitment from South Korea – and a souring sentiment towards China.
The 2016 THAAD missile defense system deployment remains a point of contention, with China continuing to impose retaliatory measures. Simultaneously, China’s rise as a technological competitor, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and electronics, is eroding South Korea’s traditional manufacturing advantage. Recent anti-China rallies in Seoul, though marred by instances of racism, reflect a growing unease among South Koreans, especially younger generations, about China’s growing influence.
Technological Rivalry and Security Concerns Fueling the Divide
The economic competition is increasingly intertwined with security concerns. China’s objections to South Korea’s pursuit of a nuclear-powered submarine, coupled with sanctions against South Korean shipbuilders with US ties (like Hanwha Ocean), demonstrate a willingness to use economic leverage to exert political pressure. This escalation highlights a broader trend: the weaponization of economic interdependence.
This dynamic is forcing South Korea to reassess its strategic priorities. The deepening alliance with the US, evidenced by the tariff deal and increased security cooperation, is a direct response to China’s assertive behavior. However, complete decoupling from China is not feasible, given its continued economic importance. South Korea’s challenge lies in diversifying its economic partnerships and strengthening its own technological capabilities to reduce its vulnerability.
The Future of Regional Order: A Multipolar Asia?
The situation in South Korea is a microcosm of the broader challenges facing the Asia-Pacific region. APEC, once a cornerstone of multilateral cooperation, is struggling to adapt to a world where the US and China are increasingly at odds. The future of regional order is uncertain, but a move towards a more multipolar Asia seems increasingly likely.
This new order will require a delicate balancing act, with nations like South Korea playing a crucial role in maintaining stability and fostering cooperation. The key will be to build resilient supply chains, diversify economic partnerships, and invest in technological innovation. The recent APEC summit may have revealed the cracks in the existing system, but it also highlighted the urgent need for a new framework for regional cooperation – one that can navigate the complexities of a rapidly changing world.
What strategies will South Korea employ to navigate this evolving geopolitical landscape? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
